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27 March 2015
US Fixed Income Weekly
A HY portfolio allocation strategy we introduced 1aSt.MOnth has done well in
its inaugural live performance period, registering a 1.1% outperformance of
top-80th percentile over bottom-20th percentile names, as ranked by spread-
per-turn (Figure 2). Another important attribute of this performance differential
is that it is not a function of a simple high-beta outperformance, in that overall
ex-energy HY index was down 0.3% for the month, and its CCC component
was down by 0.7%. We will update our readers on the new composition of
both baskets for April in the ebegbpols report to be published next week.
I
Figure 2: Total return performance of top-80th vs bottom-20th percentile
baskets. ranked by ex.ante spread-per-turn (backtested prior to March 2015)
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Taking this analysis a step further in this publication, we are introducing sector
spread-per-turn readings, averaged on an issuer basis. As a reminder, selection
criteria for this exercise includes min 10 names per sector (average count is 20),
ex financials, real estate, and energy, max total leverage under 6x in BBs, 8x in
Bs, and 10x in CCCs, max spreads under 600bp, 800bp, and 1,000bp in each
rating category respectively. Figure 3 below presents the results.
(Figure 3: Average spread-per-turn in sectors and leverage buckets
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Page 29
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0087410
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00233594
EFTA01385942
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