EFTA01387448

broad dollar (chart 3). On a more simplistic level, RUB has been the best performer in EM over the past month, and the only currency to remain unchanged versus the dollar in this period of broad dollar strength (Figure 4). l'igum I. RI tl3 los tree :he 1/4 ..74 in FM on tiays dollar 'ITNY.)7,ns ticnktincil.. . Pollornam4 of USOJEM (14 date charge) on Dollar clown Oars I 4•IfC 2 perloruun tit the ouddic of Elle pa: ~traiti: tie Potlormarca of 490004 4% daft, Mogi) an Ws MOTS T - 0.6 6 0 4 - 0 3 - Fwa otiemienes1 0 2 - 0 0 al 1 148 161 COA‘t IOAV IK%A 1941 51‘ See Ilya* Bcvot SilloyAxerl Sett Data. Set lb-M..1 Figure t Ac a I 11;1.• had 311 ittit' to TADEL4 oinlionartetn DOLT u0 vt dawn days (604flent40 Os. 04. 03 02. OA. 11111111 00 - 4 at -Oa - 4 4 totiffaCtreexeseenl EMFX l . Figure 4- In more simplistic term,. ims been the best ix-donna in ',vet the paw month 1.4=Einx 44,1/4.0 tv: past m WWWWWPIAWVASSIA IV% ;W. i,131,1W-AVAl‘ awe. Mat Sul %Is staled .were finerk. task Wenaftwd 2) RUB is very cheap After the bout of sanctions-related weakness, RUB now stands out as very cheap on fundamental valuation metrics. On our preferred DBeer model — which captures inflation, terms of trade and productivity — RUB is now 10% undervalued, the cheapest it has been since 2016 (Figures 5 and 6). CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0090091 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00236275 EFTA01387448