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efta-01388634DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01388634
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DOJ Data Set 10
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efta-01388634
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Exhibit 8. Vacancy and Rent Trends by Building Size
Market vacancy by building size -
Large-bay led recovery, but now smaller stock is better
13%
12%
11%
6%
5%
2006
2007
2009
2011
2012
2014
2016
E•klgs 400K. SF
—01dgs 100K•300K SF
Elk1gs <100K SF
Wickets ATL. AUS. BALT. SOS. CHAR. CHI. CIR, COL. OFW, DEN. OW HOU
INDY. IE- KC. LA, MEM. LISP. NASH. NNJ. OC, ORL, PHIL. PHX, FOX SLC. SO.
SEA SJ, SO.FLA STL. MCIC
‘144.-ce Deut6O., And ,lonterxre:nt
iLealytc. .
n 0 Mach ?71.3
Largo-bay had a better cycle. nd-bay coming back
strongly and Smaller buildings slower to recover
0.8
2006
2007
2009
2011
2012
2014
2016
400K• SF
—Sidgs 1001c4OCK SF
SIdgs <100K SF
Mmkets AIL. ALM. BALT DOS CHAR. CHI, ON, COL. DFW. DEN OAK. NW.
INDY, IE. KC, LA. MEM. ESP, NASH, NW. OC. ORL. PHIL. Pt% PDX SLC.
SO, SEA Si. SO FLA STL. WOG
— Class A Bilk Warehouse: Prices for large stabilized Class A bulk warehouse properties have increased
markedly in recent years. in some cases surpassing replacement cost. These assets, leased long-term to
credit tenants, can provide stable cash flow, but are generally underwritten to lower total returns. Target Class
A assets in core submarkets where in-place rents are below current market levels.
— Leasing-up I Development: In the context of healthy fundamentals, build-to-core should provide solid returns
and a way to access scarce modern assets. Supply risks are rising in Dallas and Atlanta, but conditions are
more favorable in New York/New Jersey, South Florida, Southern California, San Francisco Bay Area, Denver,
Austin, Seattle and Portland.
— National Distribution Hubs: The major national distribution hubs, many of which have strong finks to
international trade (e.g., Atlanta, Riverside. Los Angeles. Chicago, New York, and Northern New Jersey)
remain investment targets. While pricing is competitive and these markets are receiving a disproportionate
share of new supply, they are expected to continue to post strong demand growth.
— Underperforming Markets: The current development pipeline in Dallas could outpace demand, causing
vacancy to rise and rent growth to taper amid leasing competition. Additionally. we would generally avoid
markets where local demand drivers are impaired and vacancy rates are high, specifically in Baltimore and
Washington D.C. Notably, Houston has experienced availability rate increases in the past few quarters and
fundamentals are expected to weaken further in the near term,
— Non-Warehouse: We maintain an underweight to high-finish industrial property, including light industriat/tlex,
office/service, manufacturing and smaller business parks. Although conditions stand to improve in this growth
cycle, over the longer term. they are tied to weaker segments of the economy and tend to be more expensive
to lease and maintain than warehouses. We are highly selective in targeting research & development
(R&D)/Office in only a few high-barrier markets that have good growth dynamics and/or tech drivers, such as
San Jose. Oakland, Seattle, Orange County and Miami.
U.S. Real Estate Strategic Outlook I Fiept4;r0Hr 7DI,S
13
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0092299
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00238483
EFTA01388634
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