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efta-01388945DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01388945
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DOJ Data Set 10
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efta-01388945
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18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview
Sector Previews
Apartment Slowing job growth and new supply continue
to impede rent growth
IFigure 35: 1-Month Apartment performance
O%
6%
4%
2%
-WY
.12%
%portant
40. of'
est teetee
4es#
As of 10/14/16
Saw Dames int 5/41.
'Figure 37: Rent growth slows in 3O16, vacancy stays flat
6.0%
00%
54%
% 50%
4.0%
k 20%
3.0%
SO%
2.0%
50%
0.0%
40%
30%
-20%
I
20%
.30%
10%
.4.0%
00%
.501140,1,45*,Mace'aittpWlet,
......0Y/Y a m Maws Rol (WS,
—V240.024•4 t RHS)
•
Effective rent growth at 3.8% in 3O per REIS
data, down from 4.5% in 2Q. This is the third
consecutive y/y decline in rent growth with REIS
projecting rent growth to stay below 4%
•
Vacancy remained flat vs. 2O at 4.4%. New
supply is expected to drive the vacancy rates
higher in 2016
ant Darien MA ADS
Figure 36: YID Apartment performance
A144 nal
4,'!-1111
0
#P 4, 0- D e e wie IP 411. 4P 4P 4, 4P
As of 10/14/16
Sara Dattecte SA MC
'Figure 38: SS NOI growth expected to slow in 2H18
9.0%
8.0% •
7.0% •
k
8.0%
0
4.0%
2 lox •
2.0% •
1.0% -
)-
50% -
0.0%
AVB
CPT
FOR
IRT
FPS
Awn ,
•2015 *3015 .4005 8.1016 .2016
•
DBe of 4.4% SS NOI growth in 3Q16, up slightly
from 4.3% in 2O16 as NOI growth at less supply
impacted names (IRT and PPS) is supporting the
overall average
•
We project full year SS NOI growth of 4.6% in
2016 and 2.8% in 2017. 2015 actual SS NOI
growth was 4.9%
Mtn* DOIASOM pelt oynon Oen
Key Apartment topicsiquestions for 3O16
•
Ability to push rents with further deceleration and rising vacancies
expected by year-end
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Page 15
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0092942
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00239126
EFTA01388945
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