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efta-01452583DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01452583
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28 January 2014
Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges
Alternative Asset Manager Initiation
For KKR (Figure 13) we expect a relatively steady El and revenue profile over
time, though with likely more volatility along the way upon market ups &
downs, given the high portion of El from capital markets (mostly the firm's
principal investments in funds on its balance sheet). We also see stronger
growth in the public markets segment aided by growth initiatives and the
likelihood for realizations to slow in the private markets segment. Positively,
we expect the fee component of revenue to improve over time, although the
principal investing contribution is likely sizeable at roughly 25% from a revenue
perspective (with volatility) and closer to 40% from an El perspective given
limited costs attributed to the balance sheet operations. This higher proportion
of principal-driven income over time may continue to restrain KKR's PIE -
though this remains an active debate.
iFigure 13. KKR - DB forecasts for El by segment et revenue by type (Sinn)
Pretax Economic Income (B)
CAGR
Segments
2012
2013E
2014E
2016E
2016E
2012-16E
Reale Markets
$832
$935
$715
$776
$624
-6.9%
Pubk Markets
$103
$166
$175
$198
$237
23.2%
Caplet Martell*
51.196
$1.022
$836
$750
$851
-8.2%
Total
$2131
$2.123
$1.726
$1.724
51,711
-5.3%
Average
Segments
Pretax B Business Mix
2012.16E
Rkrale Mzekels
39.0%
44.0%
41.4%
45.0%
36.4%
41.2%
Pak Mukets
4.8%
7.8%
10.1%
115%
13.8%
96%
Copia' Markets
56.1%
48.1%
48.4%
43.5%
49.7%
49.2%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Revenues by Type
CAGR
Segments
2012
2013E
2014E
2016E
2016E
2012.16E
Fees
$824
$1,007
$1201
$1.262
$1.300
12.1%
Carried Interest & hconbvos
$1 .432
$1.399
$1156
$1,097
$881
a1.4%
Pettiest 8 other income
$1111
$932
$737
$631
$720
-10.3%
Total
13.367
$3.338
$3.034
$2,990
$2.901
-3.7%
Average
Segments
Revenue Mix by Type
2012.16E
Fees
24.5%
30.2%
38.8%
422%
44.8%
36.1%
Owned Serest & hcensves
42.5%
41.9%
37.4%
36.7%
30.4%
37.8%
Rincipal 8 other hews
33.0%
27.9%
23.8%
21.1%
24.8%
26.1%
Total
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Sane Comognr retorn rei Deosale Sent
For OAK (Figure 14) we expect modest growth in El over time, though still not
reaching 2013 peak within our forecast horizon (given strong contribution from
Page 16
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00255886
DB-SDNY-0 109702
EFTA01452583
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