Case File
efta-01457538DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01457538
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DOJ Data Set 10
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efta-01457538
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1 May 2016
Autos & Auto Parts
Delphi Automotive
[Figure 4: Delphi Discounted Cash Flow
Delphi
Discounted Cash Flow Analysis On $ millions)
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
2020E
0
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Revenues
516.463
517.023
$15293
516.947
318.500'
$19.703
520.688
521.401
Revenue Down
61%
34%
-102%
108%
92%
65%
5.0%
35%
Cperatng Expenses
$14620
515.005
$13,293
514.695
$15.910
$18,964
$17.853
518,512
CperaIng Morro
$1,844
$2018
$2.003
$2,251
52,590
$2,739
$2834
$2,889
CperaIng Margin
112%
119%
131%
133%
140%
139%
13.7%
135%
Demecialon and Amalzabon
$540
$587
5535
S588
$648
$690
$724
$749
EBITOA Margin
145%
153%
186%
168%4
175%1
174%
172%
170%
Penraon Non Savo
$27'
$28
$28
$28
$28
$28
$28
$28
EBITDAP
52,411
$2633
$2.562
$22867
$3,268
$3,456
$3586
$3.686
SITOAP Meson
146%
155%
188%
169%
177%
175%
17.3%
171%
EBITDA Goat
112%
92%
•27%
119%
139%
58%
38%
22%
Taxes
$296
$306
$317
$387
$458
$617
$639
$651
Tax Rale%
16%
15%
16%
17%
18%
23%
23%
23%
Ma am Capel
($78)
($123)
($29Z
($215)
$93
$197
$310
$332
VC as% a salsa
-05%
-07%
-19%
-1.3%
0.5%
10%
15%
16%
Change n Wodong Copts'
($50)
($45)
($169)
S77
$308
$105
$113
$21
CAPE(
$682
$855
$810
$850
$900
$916
S560
$910
Capes b Sales
41%
X.S.
Le
tffe
rl 7%
46%
43%
Redrucbmg
(150)
(200)
(80)
(801
-
-
InaemenblInvestrent
$482
5610
$561
$847
$1.208
$1021
$1.073
$931
Free Cash Flaw
$1633
$1717
$1684
$1.633
$1,900
$1818
$1874
$2,084
Terra Vat
pat 817
Total Value
$1,633
$1,717
$1,884
$1603
$1600
$1,8113
$1,874
$33,062
Sum of PW, as of 2014TE (2016-2020)
529,153
$1.633
$1.454
$1,503
$1.408
523.155
2015YE
&dance
Sheet
Entespdse value
$29,153
Cad
$903
Win Croat
35% Tema! Vabe
Tobl Debt
(32.573)
flaw abm Margn
135% PAW • g
66%
Tax Rib
225%1PACC
100%
Undarlaxted Peria01112014YE, Net of TEM
($754)
WC % Revenue
16%
Equity n Aileen
$101
CAREX % Rev
43%'
Mnaty Interest
(5508)
Shareholder Value
$26.322
Shares Oubbndng
279 4
Pa Share
594
50.~.-O_a—
Valuation and Filsks
Our price target is based on a DCF derived 2016 P/E multiple of 15.0x. Our DCF
conservatively assumes a normalized EBITDA margin of 17.0% (vs. our
estimates of 16.8% in 2016 and 17.5% in 2017), a terminal growth rate of 3.5%
(which could prove conservative given Delphi's exposure to secular content
per vehicle growth drivers) and a tax rate of 22.5% (which assumes the US IRS
disallows Delphi's status as a non-U.S. entity - resulting in a 4% increase vs.
Page 6
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0117119
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00263303
EFTA01457538
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