EFTA01457959

Nos patine::, fa a Tent se- sour" ',swoons tsar: ilohts Aisatklas se-speed... Ponfeflo fiqeoskiitsen Sons Credit and asset pricetrifaiWifireekt of 2011 iMeweric1 of 2014 4§ Focus on the financial cycle Fa sr.! Cfkoa Fr keen 06. man: Development of public debt 191s9 1:01 1073 I 9ffe Iff91 1 VA 2001 :00:f 2005 2007 v00 Y011 2010 2eisi • ..19(4•1 • Germany ■ kinfts1SVINI • Ustof Knodom Sas-me:ask ex Insets , Sottersefts. 85th Annul Rosati- Ass 201$ • (stenos!, of us Sli0 for InsmrteX¢i Sett4n*ms mire tad IOr 201 5. Decreasing financial leeway Advanced countries used to stabilize their economies in times of recessions with the help of fiscal spending programs. As a result, public debt ratios have structurally risen over the past 25 years. Growing debt might narrow these governments' scope of action in future times of crisis. :sop 111.n Steens nfee.1 Kinesmii A financial cycle is in an upswing when credit volumes and asset prices are rising. This development can be well observed in China, Brazil and the United States. In these countries, the danger of a credit boom and a credit crisis following suit is increasing. For this reason, central banks must pursue a prudent monetary policy in these countries. S Pest Cram: WOWS' • Real Issu WSW' `Souse' 54th ;of !isms:ors Sonlanonts.15th Annual Re owe Juno 2015 'Seal crocki wovalkw.s. saleubtsi ecIpueSs foe Os gaesosafferrec.socext t&5) deflator • .P.N.IMO30 peso on Saute s:1 feleSts1 nsforctiPaiir Inca INI.tx Germany (10-year Bunds) When the ,ield on 10-year Sundt woo approach ing zero Aont mt.ve vo•(e ; %win raiesi soung ter 1 . 1 0 0 / * 0 iJune 2016 F) • 330,33.112./ FirThe current accommodative monetary policy is not without risks. This facilitates the creation of bubbles on the financial markets.il Kim Knot, memos el ON, rte Cits4ning Cisme. coneserks nn Skell14. 8100SeeellhossetP h , Eurozone (refinancing rate) Tr* Ea) wants to boon 0,- Eurozone economy writ low :of inenono Infos. The Otalt titnt' PIK," tkelfehn, R 0 * 0.0 / (June 2016 F) 'Couto:he MSS Mown sot 6/1S15 Past performance is not indicative of future returns. ft is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target will be reached. F = forecast. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL ::/:flat: IA:Aston EMDonI ifegpsl 10'5 t ak=kti f,... 0 5 DB-SDNY-0117692 SDNY_GM_00263876 EFTA01457959