Case File
efta-01458001DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01458001
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DOJ Data Set 10
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efta-01458001
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Rides
U.S. Treasuries (2..yrmir)
U.S. Treasuries (10-year)
U.S. Treasuries (30-year)
U.K. Gilts (10.ywn)
Eurozonc, periphery
German Blinds 12-year)
German Bunds (10-year)
Japanese government bonds (2-year)
Japanese government bonds (10-year)
U.S. investment grade
U.S. high yiekl
EUR investment grade'
FUR high yield'
Asia credit
Emerging.rnadtet credit
•
0
•
.4.
•
•
•
O
•
•
ti
•
.•
Sewn turd ispeciatuo,,
Covered bonds'
U.S. municipal bonds
U.S. mortgage-backed securities
Cur ronac4;
EUR vs. USD
USD vs. JPY
FUR vs. GBP
•
la
•
•
la
EUR vs. JPY
•
GBP vs. USD
•
Si
'a no market sovereigns
•
Alter native3
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COMITIOCII0 Os
Real estate (listed)
Real estate (non-listed)
Hedge funds
Private Equity'
•
•
•
•
•
-•
'as of 7/21/15
Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
No assurance can be given that any forecast, investment
objectives and/or expected returns will be achieved. Allocations
are subject to change without notice. Forecasts are based on
assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that
may prove to be incorrect.
EUR investment grade
pcdtemis
Faro
MI' IND Pc iwa
itTeoc!,If.
!ler i1/41? is
Asuslets paspxtios
Pmfulo
He.X1Wit•Wil
404$
• —
Thry
Despite the ECB's quantitative-easing measures. corporates'
risk premiums hove widened for a couple of months, due to
uncertainties over Greece. Premiums should narrow again in
line with the receding "Grexit" probability. Another problem
could be pent-up issuance although the primary market has
kept cairn of late
0 Commodities
•
Otw)
State!.
We remain underweight on commodities. Many commodities
still suffer from stowing Chinese demand, compounding the
difficulties associated with expanded production capacities. The
supply of oil could increase even further after the conclusion
of the nuclear deal with Iran which provides for the lifting of
economic sanctions.
The tactical view (one to three months)
Equity indices:
• positive view
• neutral view
• negative view
Fixed income and exchange rates:
•The fixed-income sector or the exchange rate is expected to
perform) well
•We expect to see a sideways trend
•We anticipate a decline in prices in the fixed-income sector or
in the exchange rate
The traffic lights' history is shown in the small graphs.
A circled traffic light indicates that there is a commentary on
the topic.
The strategic view up to June 2016
Equity indices, exchange rates and alternative investments:
The avows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend
(I), a sideways trend (e) or a downward trend N for the
particular equity index, exchange rate or alternative asset class
Fixed income:
For sovereign bonds, it denotes rising yields, -• unchanged
yields and ti falling yields. For corporates, securitized /
specialties and emerging-market bonds, the arrows depict
the option-adjusted spread over U.S. Treasuries, if not stated
differently. Or depicts an expected widening of the spread.. a
sideways spread trend and N, a spread reduction.
The arrows' colors illustrate the return opportunities for
long-only investors.
%it, positive return potential for long-only investors
-.limited return opportunity as well as downside risk
lair high downside risk for long-only investors
Further explanations can be found in the glossary.
Spread over German Bunds
2 These traffic-light indicators are only meaningful for existing
private-equity portfolios
GmbH
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CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0117748
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00263932
EFTA01458001
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