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Please find attached the October issue of 00 View, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management's flagship
thought-leadership publication. In this edition, Chief Investment Officer Asoka W6hrmann tackles the
question "Why are markets so unsettled?" and explores why we believe a global economic recovery
remains intact despite a more muted outlook for some markets, particularly in developing countries.
His nine positions are:
— Pace of global economic growth is likely to slow down for a while.
— Emerging markets' growth advantage has been eroded.
— Commodity-exporting countries hurt by low commodity prices.
— U.S. Federal Reserve Board postpones rate hike and the pace of subsequent increases will be
slow.
— The Fed and low inflation may force the European Central Bank to continue easing beyond
September 2016.
— Private equity and hedge funds should benefit from the capital market environment.
— Oil prices climb as slowly as output capacity contracts.
— Earnings forecasts revised down slightly for developed markets and significantly for emerging
markets.
— Asset allocation of our balanced model portfolio for clients based in the Americas:
Equities: 50%, Fixed income: 39%, Alternatives: 10%, Commodities: 1%
If you wish to discuss where we see opportunity in current markets, we will be happy to schedule a call.
Additional pieces include:
•
CIO Macro Outlook - In a separate piece, Asoka W0hrmann delves deeper into the effect of
developed market quantitative easing on emerging markets, and subsequently, global growth.
•
Weekly Highlights - Our U.S. Wealth Management CIO, Larry Adam, focuses on 3Q performance,
Japanese economic indicators, and Eurozone resilience to EM weakness.
•
Economic & Asset Class Outlook — The U.S. CIO office outlines their near-term and long-term
economic and asset class forecasts.
•
U.S. Equity Insights - David Bianco, U.S. Equity Strategist, cuts his S&P 2015 end target and
expects weak 3Q EPS.
•
CIO Flosh: Bond Morket Turmoil — Our CIO office warns of near term bond market illiquidity and
volatility following the September FOMC meeting.
•
China Hard Landing - Chief Economists Peter Hooper and Torsten Slok discuss the possibility of
an economic slowdown in China given recent equity market volatility and currency devaluation.
•
The Arithmetic of EM & Global Growth — Chief Strategist Binky Chadha looks at the sustainability
of global growth given the recent weakness in Chinese and EM economies.
•
FX Forecasts & Valuations - Alan Ruskin and George Saravelos, Chief FX Strategists, examine the
continuation of USD strength and assess the risks of EM currency volatility.
Paul Morris
Managing Director
Deutsche Bank Private Bank
Office:
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