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efta-01459674DOJ Data Set 10OtherEFTA01459674
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DOJ Data Set 10
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8 EM Equities
Will the EM Giants Awaken?
Disappearing Growth Premium
7.0%
6.0% -1
5.0% -,
4.0%
—
—
3.0% •
2.0% 1 il
t
10r%
-1.0% •
-2.0%
-3.0%
4003
1005
2006
3007
4008
1010
2011
3012
4013
1Q15 r 16°
140
120 f 100
111110 IIIIII
Average EM Growth Premium (LHS)
(AVG) Average EM Growth Premium (LHS)
MSCI EM (local) - S&P 500 Index (RHS)
Emerging market equities have benefitted from superior economic growth over the developed
markets in recent years.
However, that growth premium has been eliminated and has resulted in emerging market
equities lagging developed market equities.
Footnotes: Data as of 3O15.
Booms: Bloomberg Finance LP, FabtSet, Detilsche Rank Wealth Managernerd
Deutsche Bank
Wealth Mana0ement
80
‘,40
pa
Earnings Growth Premium Gone
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
Peak EM Earnings
'96 '97 '98 '99 DO '01 '02 '03 D4 '05 '06 '07 D8 '09 '10 '1 '12 '13 '14 '15
-
(INDEX) S&P 500 EPS (LTM)
ua
MSCI EM USD PM. • S&P 500 Price)
—
(INDEX) MSCI EM EPS (LTM)
Peak U.S.
Earnings
Emerging markets experienced several years of an earnings growth premium over the U.S.
However, the collapse in commodity prices and lackluster economic growth in EM has
resulted in the earnings growth premium collapsing.
As a result, the U.S. has been outperforming the emerging markets.
Foolnotes: Data as of Deconber 31. 2015
Sourte FactSet, Clealsche Sank Wealth Management
22
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00266467
DB-SDNY-0 120283
EFTA01459674
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