EFTA01459728

5 February 2016 Focus Europe: Dark clouds, no storm yet Eurozone Economics SIREN: Euro-macro surprises remain negative SIREN (Summary index of Relevant Economic News) monitors daily both how quickly the euro-area is growing (Momentum)► and how outcomes compare with expectations (Surprise). Individual indicators are weighted by their ability to forecast GDP out-of-sample. Both SIREN components correlate closely but tend to lead similar indices. SIREN is reported based on release dates (Fig. 1, 2 & 3) as well as on reference dates (Fig. 6 & 7). D8-Point combines SIREN- Momentum and Surprise in a single metric (Fig. 8 & 9) - Link to full guide. • SIREN-Momentum Was broadly unchanged over the week. A positive contribution from euro area retail sales was offset by weakness in Ireland's industrial production and Germany's manufacturing orders (all data were for December). The final print for January euro-area PMIs was in line with the flash reading. • SIREN•Surprise remained close to its IS-month low. SIREN-Surprise is significantly more volatile than its sister momentum index, but in 2008 and 2012 it provided an early signal. That, said, SIREN-Surprise remains well above the levels in the 2008 and 2012 recessions as shown in Fig. 3. Fig.2: SIREN-Momentum - Is the euro-area economy accelerating or decelerating? (BBG: DBSKMEA Index)• 2 En:went/ay weighted SterideresSed 3-nyonth macro momentum 0.10 0.05 - 000 .0 10 Jan-08 Jan- I 0 Jan-12 Dote of clotttrtiont Jan-14 Jan-16 Mruon Stnotta <:FA tic WW1, WOW Senior Economist Strategist 1+44) 20 754-74900 1.44120 754.76615 [email protected] nkisoles.wengCedb.com Surprises remain negative —....-4p1111.144.44424 L44.4.441.”...0,741.1 94.14102443.1110/40, —51 11111Syyne 10 °a Os 04 01 00 02 04 c:,. ,1 Mr -, Owe Idea teleese Sane we Mg 24 IFig. 3: SIREN-Surprise - Is euro-area growth faster or Islower than expected? (BBG: DBSFISEA Index)" 3 .- 2 0 I -2 -3 Exponentaly weighted standardised 3-month supnses -5 12EllgittEliTifSta Jan-08 Jan-08 Jan-I0 Jan -12 Jan-I4 Jan -16 Key monthly contributions to SIREN-Momentum (Fig 4) and to SIREN-Surprise (Fig. 5)" 84.2 fik* Il III •: 1- Went he 005 81e:' .5:e 0.00 4.os __MI 4.10 4.15 EA Ger It. EA EA Ger IP Fre IP EA Ger EA IP Retail Cons Cons Cost' PMI_M Cons Man Sales Cent Cant Coot Ord Gee Its Fee Fre Gee Ger EASer. EA EA EA IP ZEW Cass Core Retort Cons Elus Cent PMI_S Cool Cent Sates Cent Coot - ern an ari re APV20Teitie erposr Mutt emµard xe 0 44 ,tlerflibrma1,11444 AIRY Near* 11,144 anstea Sew Medec Inas n N. 2 rweesen 4ec*'v wq GOP • •b+axwyers b eximaat (winos we /nowt° one, wenn, or MOE rt e Olov Deka the anaew wrxeweeconrcato. Oh< tonna en vaned fro— the bff44,0,44241.2%, Muth wwWvi Scarce WAS patio. ay* line M.Sets Navvy/ Sran2r442.24ket 8irrofler9 e tp ,Ant Sad InntNW C.0.en, Deutsche Bank AG/London hags 21 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0120377 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266561 EFTA01459728