EFTA02128826

From: Sent: Thur 9/12/2013 9:55:15 AM Subject: Early Tour 9.12.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 15-60 bps (Spain +0.07%) ... ASX +0.16%, NKY -0.26%, KOSPI +0.01%, TWSE +0.20%, SHCOMP +0.64%, HSI +0.07% EUR 1.3286 (-0.18%) JPY 99.38 (+0.53%) EUR/JPY 131.97 (-0.75%) AUD 0.9240 (-0.95%) NZD 0.8144 (+0.77%) INR +0.90% US 10yr 2.88% Japan 10yr 0.73% Germany 10yr 2.02% Portugal 10yr 7.14% Italy 10yr 4.54% Spain 10yr 4.48% Futures: Dow -14, Nasdaq -2, S&P -2 DXY $81.56 (+5c) Crude $107.83 (+26c) Gold $1342.50 (- $21.30) Copper -0.81% Silver -2.08% It was another choppy day for Asia with indices mostly range bound. Volumes were on the lighter side with the exception of South Korea which had quadruple witching. Tech names were lower as Apple suppliers continued to come under pressure as well as Taiwan panels on concerns that China may raise tariffs. China outperformed as banks rallied following comments of deeper financial sector reforms from Li Keqiang who was talking at Davos. Mainland property names were weaker, however, on continued speculation the government will introduce a property tax to curb gains in housing prices. Japan ended lower as the JPY move back below 100 drove profit taking in the export names. The disappointing machinery orders print out before the market also weighed. Tomorrow is expiry for futures and options (SQ) in Japan and volumes are expected to be heavy on the open. Australian jobless rate came in at 5.8% as expected though employment fell 10.8k in August vs. expectations of a gain of 10k. Korea & Philippines left rates unchanged as expected. NZ also kept rates unchanged but said they will likely be raising them in 2014 which has the NZD +0.80%. In a surprise move Bank Indonesia hiked the reference rate by 25 bps to 7.25%. On the Syria front: John Kerry meeting his Russian counterpart in Geneva today in an effort to further explore and gauge the seriousness of their proposal (Politico). Note that the Syrian rebel leadership is out this morning with a video statement officially rejecting the Russian initiative. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin pens an op-ed in the NYT addressing the American public directly in another chess move vs Obama (NYT). European markets opened flattish but have started to fade with volumes tracking a little above average on what seems to be a little caution into the weekend and next week. In the UK, Mark Carney and 3 other MPC members are testifying in front of UK lawmakers on their forward guidance. US jobless claims due out before the open. SPA's -2 handles = 1686.40 last. ***Jobless Claims / Import Price Index 8:30am*** `••Treasury Monthly Budget Statement © 2pm*** EFTA_R1_00769920 EFTA02128826 ***KR & LULU report pre-market"' • Vera Bradley beats estimates but cuts FY14 EPS view to $1.47-$1.52 from $1.74-$1.78 (trading - 9%) • Qualcomm announced new buyback up to $5 billion in shares (replaces prior $5 billion buyback) • Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) to buy Sterling Financial (STSA) for $2.0 billion in cash and stock • S&P 500 changes: VRTX & AMD will replace AMD & SAI in the S&P 500 on the close Fri Sep 20 • Richemont 5 month sales come in light (+9% vs +10%e), China weak on tough comps (trading - 3.5%) • Ocado O3 IMS: sales light, sale & leaseback arrangements to Morrisons completed (trading +0.70%) • Morrison H1 revs inline, op income miss, EPS better, improving H2, maintains guidance (trading +3.0%) • Home Retail O2 IMS good, LFL's strong, Homebase beats, maintains FY guidance (trading +2.8%) • Next Plc H1 revs inline, EPS better, solid div, reaffirms FY brand sales & group profit (trading +0.10%) • KPN/America Movil in constructive discussions over offer, AMX committed to Eur2.4 offer (trading +1.2%) • RWE: Handelsblatt report CEO plans to propose dividend below last years payout of E2 (trading - 1.8%) • Royal Mail IPO launched, targeting a majority offering by UK government (GS & UBS book runners) • Amec/Kentz: Amec confirms it will not make an offer for Kentz and withdrawals proposal (AMEC LN +2.5%) • SocGen: Reuters reports bank may sell its Asian private banking unit for up to $600mn (trading - 0.70%) • Vivendi to begin forma study into splitting the company's telecom and media assets (trading +2.4%) • EDF: Norges bank to sell 13M shares @ €21.45 (3.5% discount), UBS sole book runner (trading - 3.0%) • Bank of Indonesia raises rates 25bps (unexpected), Bank of Korea leaves rates unchanged (expected) • New Zealand leaves rates unchanged but says that it is likely to raise them in 2014 (NZD +0.72%) EFTA_R1_00769921 EFTA02128827 • Australia August employment falls -10,800 m/m versus estimate +10,000 gain (unemployment 5.8%) Leading European Sectors: Tech +1.19%, Real Estate +0.48%, Retail +0.14% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -0.79%, Fin Services -0.65%, Basic Res -0.64% RCL boosts dividend — P names ceo — THO cfo stepping down Secondaries (announced/priced): GLUU, CHFC, PLX (convert), KRC, UBNT, BITA, CODE, EDF FP IPO's: Montage Technology Group (anticipated pricing Wed 9/25) US Key Research: DB initiates B (buy), MLV initiates NBS (buy), KBW upgrades CFNL Wells cuts TRV/ACGUWFT & upgrades ALL & initiates RKT (op), JMP upgrades CSH Raja downgrades ASBOWFT & upgrades PLCM, MS cuts NFLX/SYMC Europe Key Research: JPM u/g TT/ LN, HAR SJ, ANG SJ, d/g GNK LN, MAB LN, MARS LN, YNGN LN, DRD SJ • Nomura downgrade European Steel, ABI BB, SAB LN, SSABA SS • GS upgrade ASM NA, downgrade EXACT NA, MCRO LN, reinstate ASML NA (b) GS remove ERICB SS, SESG FP from cony buy, CS downgrade EN FP, upgrade ELI1V FH • Bernstein downgrade HOLN VX, MS downgrade OMV AV, HSBC downgrade PFG LN • Citi u/g SU FP, BOY LN, d/g OPF PW, BGEO LN, MRO LN, SPX LN, initiate COLOB DC (b), NHG NO) SocGen upgrade PGE PW, RAYJ upgrade VIV FP, Citi downgrade BGEO LN, RWE GY EFTA_R1_00769922 EFTA02128828 UBS add IGG LN to most pref, add TLPR LN to least pref, SEB downgrade YTY1V FH RBC upgrade NOK1V FM, Nordea upgrade FIXB SS, downgrade KNEBV FH, Equita upgrade GTO NA Oddo upgrade UL NA, KepChev upgrade FNC IM, SEB downgrade KNEBV FH, WRT1V FH, DNB NO Reporting Pre-Open: KR, BRC, CNSI, LULU, NTWK Reporting Post-Close: ALOG, CHKE, LAKE, ULTA, UNFI Economic Data: Jobless Claims / Import Price Index © 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort © 9:45am, Treasury's Monthly Budget Statement @ 2pm EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, Treasury auction in 30yr bonds © 1pm ($13B) Fed Speakers: Dudley on OTC derivatives @ 9am Conferences: DB Tech (Las Vegas), Bofa Real Estate (NYC), Bofa Media, Communications, & Entertainment (Beverly Hills) Conferences: CL King Best Ideas (NYC), Stifel Healthcare (Boston), Barcap Energy (NYC) Conferences: UBS Paper & Packaging (NYC), BMO Back to School (NYC), Canaccord Infrastructure (Toronto) Analyst/Investor Days: ATR, USB, ECL, COV, PLXS, ACCL, PLD, BEBE Non-Deal Roadshows: ABM, ATML, AXP, BALT, BOKF, BYI, CAKE, CEVA, CPHD, DIOD, DLA, DTEGY, EGN, ESPGY, FMBI, HE, IGTE, LPL, MDC, MEDS, MIC, MILL, MM, MMYT, NUVA, PSIX, PWR, ROSE, SHG, SMCI, SU, TMK, WTS, CNQ Shareholder Meetings: TARO, PNTR, CEL, ROLL, BZC, DELL, ERA, HRB, NATH, SSYS, TZOO, PESI, STEC, MEI, OCLS, UPI, ACRX, AMRS EFTA_R1_00769923 EFTA02128829 Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A S&P 500 change (after close Sept-20): Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and Ametek Inc. (AME) will replace Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) and SAIC Inc. (SAI) S&P 400 change (after close Sept-20): Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and SAIC (SAI) will replace Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) and Ametek (AME) S&P 600 change (after close Sept-19): Capstead Mortgage (CMO) will replace Rue 21 Inc (RUE) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Sears Holdings (SHLD) WSJ • Royal Mail listing to get cabinet go-ahead FT • Government's defence of HS2 shot down by one of its own advisers FT • Verizon borrows $49bn in bond market record FT • Derivatives move from banks into the shadows FT • Sterling's jump fuels doubts over Mark Camey's rates guidance FT • Southeastern takes 11.9% stake in News Corp voting shares FT • UK civil service accused of litany of failings FT • UK Conservatives hit back at Jose Manuel Barroso over Ukip comparison FT • BBC: The British Blameshifting Corp FT • The west is failing the Syrian people FT • Mining: Hazards of the frontier FT • Whistleblower sues Morgan Stanley over 'harassment' FT • Britain is set up for a better retirement future FT • Verizon: size advantage Lex • Barclays / Lehman: many happy returns Lex EFTA_R1_00769924 EFTA02128830 • Kingfisher: emperors new coat Lex • New York Regulator Sees Abuse Increasing Under New Insurance Rules NYT • Home-Loan Ebb Is a Blow to Banks WSJ • Companies Act on Rising Interest Rates WSJ • Finding Value in Verizon's Wake WSJ Heard on the Street • Apple's 'Low End' Strategy Disappoints WSJ • Patent Fight Erupts Over Kids' Fad WSJ • Geneva Talks Mark Big Test for U.S., Russia WSJ • Apple's 'Low End' Strategy Disappoints WSJ • Catalan Separatists Pull Off Protest But Referendum Is Harder WSJ • Wall Street's Top Cop: SEC Tries to Rebuild Its Reputation WSJ • Lloyds Takes a Step To Aid New Lender WSJ • France Says It Will Miss Budget Deficit Targets WSJ • Tiny, Stylish Cars Ride High in Europe WSJ • We can't stop the world, we can't get off The Times • Tories neck and neck with Labour but Cameron leaves his rival behind The Times • Wall Streets finest bring Nike to the party The Times • China churns out another 64 billionaires The Times • Exclusive: Yellow Pages investors accuse board of dereliction of duty Independent • Sports Direct on the right track with £260m profit Independent • Hamish McRae: Two takes on health of the labour market — and both could be right Independent • Jim Armitage: That 'wafer-thin mint' moment is a worry Independent • Romantic Germany risks economic decline as green dream spoils Telegraph • Oh God — I cannot take any more of the austerity debate Telegraph • Banks may have to raise extra £50bn under emerging 'Basel IV' Telegraph • Putin wams US not to launch attack in Syria Guardian • Record number of estate agents raises fears of unsustainable housing bubble Guardian EFTA_R1_00769925 EFTA02128831 • Oxfam warns on European poverty and says 'Greece is in a terrible state' Guardian • Real estate jobs boom a worry — but labour market rebalancing City AM • The unlawful EU financial transaction tax should rightfully be abandoned City AM • German elections will not prompt new wave of Eurozone integration City AM • US sorghum is used for feed China Daily Key Events This Week Friday: PPI, Retails Sales, Earnings (747A) Key Events on the Horizon September 18 - FOMC rate decision September 20 - EuroStoxx 600 changes on the close September 22 — German elections September 30 - Fiscal Year End for US Federal Government October 10-11 - G20 Fin Min/CB meeting (DC) EFTA_R1_00769926 EFTA02128832 1680 Washington Blvd Stamford, CT 069011 M This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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