EFTA02156002

From: Ike Groff Sent: Wed 11/7/2012 11:01:48 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.7.12 Good Morning ... Europe up 35-85 bps (Greece -0.43%) ASX +0.71%, NKY -0.03%, KOSPI +0.49%, SHCOMP -0.01%, HSI +0.71% EUR 1.2850 (+0.28%) JPY 80.34 (+0.02%) AUD 1.0460 (+0.24%) RUB 31.297 (+0.41%) US 10yr 1.68% Futures: Dow +14, Nasdaq +7, S&P +3 DXY $80.44 (-17c) Crude $88.00 (-71c) Gold $1725.70 (+$10.70) Copper +0.19% President Obama has been re-elected to a second term. Current tally (ex-Florida's 29 electoral votes which has yet to be called but Obama has slight lead there): Electoral Vote = Obama 303 vs Romney 206, Popular Vote = Obama 49.8% vs Romney 48.7%. The only swing state that Romney carried was North Carolina. Democrats hold the Senate & Republicans hold the House. So Washington DC looks no different than the last 2 years & the QE-related trade that kicked in yesterday in anticipation of an Obama victory continues today with Equities, Gold, Silver, Copper & Commodity-related FX's all continuing higher while DXY sells off & UST's rally. European Commission officially publishes its new economic forecasts today (Spain's leaked yesterday and Italy/France has apparently leaked today showing 2013 GDP estimates below government forecasts). Draghi speaks t 1:10pm CET in Frankfurt and is unlikely to say much ahead of tomorrow's ECB announcement & presser (no change to rates expected). The focus in Europe today will be on a crucial Greek Parliament vote on its new austerity and reform package later this evening (debate has begun this morning and a roll-call vote is expected after 10pm local time = 3pm EST where it is expected to pass by a very narrow margin). China's 18th NPC and leadership transition officially kicks off this evening and will likely last 5-7 days. Nor'easter coming into the tri-state area today & high wind warnings will be in effect starting ©2pm. SPA's +3 handles = 1428 last and well off the overnight low of 1411. "'Mortgage Apps @ 7am, Consumer Credit © 3pm, Merkel speaks in Brussels & has dinner with Cameron in UK"' "'M, TWX, LEAP, CNP, DVN report pre-open / ATVI, CBS, MNST, PRU, QCOM, WFM Ws post close"' • News Corp profit surged & beat on strong dual revs from TV ads / affiliate fees (trading +6%) • Carlsberg mixed Q3, top line better on volumes, Asian driven growth, guidance unch (trading +3.6%) EFTA_R1_00824465 EFTA02156002 • William Demant cuts FY EBIT target, cites deteriorating markets & poor product mix (trading - 4.1%) • Burberry IMS in line (revs already reported) , interim dividend +14%, guidance maintained (trading +0.50%) • L'Oreal O3 sales solid, organic growth in line, Luxury and Asia lead drivers (trading -0.60%) • Danone gains most in over a year on report Trian takes a 1.0% stake (€300M) (trading +2.6%) • Delhaize O3 beat across the board, US & domestic better, maintains guidance (trading +7.5%) • BNP O3 better across the board helped by accounting one off from Fortis (trading +5.2%) • Commerzbank may cut 5k-6k jobs as part of strategic review (Die Zeit) (investor day tomorrow) • Alstom H1 headlines in line, positive FCF, higher non-recurrings, confirms outlook (trading +5.4%) • Brenntag O3 below, sales okay but net & EBIT miss, trimming EBITDA guidance (trading -0.33%) • Eiffage O3 revs in line, order book slight light, French Energy division strong (trading +0A0%) • Rhoen-Klinikum CEO further trims EBITDA following Q2 PW, sees "significant slowing" (trading - 3.6%) • Playtech good O3, +ve core trends continue, confident of future prospects, good start to O4 (trading +2.7%) • Axel Springer weak O3 as expected, EPS miss due to write offs, maintains guidance (trading +3.4%) • Smurfit Kappa good Q3, Europe solid, Latam in line, FY EBITDA in line with 2011 (trading +0.10%) • ING O3 underlying pretax profit in line, banking ahead, insurance in line (trading +1.7%) • Munich Re Q3 net/op profit better, raising outlook, Sandy losses in mid 3 digit millions (trading +2.8%) • Telefonica O3 net & revs in line, Spain weak, Latam strong, maintains dividend (trading +1.6%) • Holcim mixed Q3 EBITDA in line, net profit misses, confirms FY outlook (trading -1.6%) • Symrise Q3 EPS misses, better organic growth, only confirms sales guidance (trading unch) • Eurozone Sep retail sales -0.2% m/m versus estimate -0.1% (-0.8% y/y versus estimate -0.8%) • German construction PMI 44.6 in October vs 48.6 in September (lowest level since July) • Spain's Sep industrial output wda y/y -7.0% vs est -3.5% (industrial output -11.7% y/y vs -3.1% prior) • DeNA (social media) rises after Q2 profit beats estimates (closed +1.85% but near lows of day) EFTA_R1_00824466 EFTA02156003 Leading European Sectors: Autos/Parts +1.49%, Insurance +0.83%, Healthcare +0.78% Lagging European Sectors: Tech -0.03%, Trav/Les +0.05%, Real Estate +0.21% PIP earnings beat — AMRS trims loss on lower costs - PLXS lost big customer (JNPR) LPSN outlook light — EZPW forecast trailed ests — SGI loss widened RBCN drop in O3 profit - TNGO sees yr adj eps up — ALXA cash till O2 2013 WCRX dividend — WU & EZCORP agreement — GIVN eps beats/revs miss BKE $4.50shr special div — GPOR eps misses — PFE arthritis treatment approved Secondaries (announced/priced): N/A IPO's: N/A Key Research: Canaccord initiates SGYP/BRD (buy's), GS cuts DRH (sell) & removes ESRX Conviction Buy List Key Research: BMO upgrades CDE, Baird upgrades EOG, Raja upgrades UMBF & cuts FTR & initiates JOY (op) Key Research: DA Davidson downgrades TEG, CLSA upgrades NWSA, CS downgrades SMRT, Jeff downgrades INFI Key Research: UB downgrade ISAT LN, UBS downgrade BAB LN, SocGen upgrade MT NA, Kepler cuts BEI GY Key Research: SEB downgrade COLOB DC, Natixis upgrade ADEN VX, Natixis downgrade GAS SM Key Research: Danske downgrade RAIVV FH, DB initiate KRA1V FH (buy), DB downgrade F IM Key Research: ABG upgrade SAND SS, Danske downgrade ELUXB SS, Exane upgrade SOP FP Key Research: CBK downgrade VOE AV, Investec downgrade SRP LN, Investec downgrade BRBY LN Key Research: Chev downgrade ATL IM, Equinet downgrade SY1 CY, Equinet upgrade FRE GY Reporting Pre-Open: AES, BDX, CNP, CTSH, DVN, GOLD, HSIC, HSP, M, PRGO, TAP, THC, TWX, WLP, ACRE, ADES, AEGR, AER, AGU, AH, AMS, ARIA, ATRS, AUXL, BABY, BIP, BPHX, BWEN, EFTA_R1_00824467 EFTA02156004 CBMX, CECE, CGX, CLH, CPK, CSTE, CTCM, CWH, ELOS, FLL, FOR, FRM, GKNT, GMO. GSM, GVA, HFC, IFMI, INSM, IONT, JRCC, KELYA, LAMR, LEAP, LIOX, LNCE, MFB, MGIC, MINI, MNTA, MPEL, NEWS, NIHD, OGE, OWW, PQ, PRGN, RENT, SKYW, SODA, SONS, SPPI, SRT, STWD, SUSS, SYMX, TDS, TEU, TICC, TNS, TRMD, TUC, USM, VIAS, VICL, VITC, NVDA, WFR, WRES, BAP, CNTY, DCTH, GSIG, MGEE, ROSE, YORW Reporting Post-Close: ATVI, CBS, CTL, MNST, PRU, QCOM, WFM, ACFN, AFCE, ALIM, ANAC, ARAY, ATO, AVCA, AWK, BEE, BIOS, BKH, BLMN, BRS, BWC, CDXS, CERS, CHDX, CIX, CLR, CNQR, CODI, CPA, CPE, CPNO, CQB, CSU, CXO, CXPO, CXW, DBLE, DCO, DK, DVR, EAC, EFC, EIG, ENPH, ENSG, EPAY, EPM, ERII, ESEA, ETE, ETP, EXEL, FALC, FLDM, FTK, GCA, GHDX, GMXR, GNCMA, GRP, GSS, GST, HALL, HE, HHC, HIMX, HNSN, HR, IDSY, IL, IPAR, IPAS, ITMN, JCS, KGC, LHCG, LUB, MAIN, MAKO, MATR, MBI, MDLZ, MEAS, MEET, MI-ILD, MITK, MITT, MLR, MPO, MTEX, MWE, MYRG, NCIT, NSPH, NVTL, OAS, OESX, OILT, ONTY, OREX, OSUR, OUTD, PAL, PANL, POWR, PRCP, PRI, PRMW, PRSC, PRSS, PSTR, PULS, QBAK, QUAD, REG, RGP, RLJ, RLOG, RNET, RP, RST, SAPE, SDBT, SGEN, SLF, SLXP, SMT, SNTS, SRPT, SSRI, STAG, STRI, SVN, SXL, TCAP, TECUA, TTEC, TTEK, TTGT, TWGP, UHAL, UNTK, UPIP, XOMA, ZLTQ Economic Data: MBA Mortgage Applications t 7am, Consumer Credit @ 3pm DOE crude oil inventories © 10:30am, Treasury auction in 10-yr notes © 1pm ($24B) Conferences: Baird Industrial (Chicago), GS Small Cap Technology One-on-One's (SF), Wells TMT (NYC) Analyst/Investor Days: AA, T, INGR, NUVA Non-Deal Roadshows: AAN, AHT, ATRO, BBCN, BBSI, BC, BHI, CDNS, CLX, CSE, CSGS, DBD, ECL, ENS, F, GG, GRC, INVN, IP, IPHI, IVR, JNJ, MSLI, MID, MXL, NEOL, NTRS, OXM, OXY, PSMI, RATE, RBA, SIVB, SLTX, STMP, TRIP, TSLA, VC, VSTM, WYN Shareholder Meetings: ANEN, KRNY, MDP, SLTC, TUES, ZBB, OPLK, ORCL, PTSX, KLAC, LLTC, ADY Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ZMH, RPAI, REFR EFTA_R1_00824468 EFTA02156005 Other Newspaper Articles 44 Stories WSJ cautious: Nokia (NOK) WSJ • And Now For the Hard Part: Markets Ready for Gridlock Barron's • Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss Barron's • Europe, Central Bank Spar Over Athens Aid WSJ • Spain Will Take It's Times, Says Rajoy WSJ • The New Haven for Investors WSJ • U.S., Russian Oil Production Threatens OPEC Dominance WSJ • New Data Hit Europe Hopes for Recovery WSJ • French Banks Try an Import From the U.S. WSJ • Google Founder Calls U.S. A 'Bonfire of Partisanship' WSJ • France Announces Cut in Payroll Taxes for Businesses NYT • Facing Protests, China's Business Investment Slows NYT • German economic data is a 'catastrophe', say economists Telegraph • Hollande lurches Right in historic U-Turn to save economy Telegraph • Spain 'faces slower growth and bigger deficit' Telegraph • Athens starts countdown to bailout deal FT • France offers businesses E20bn tax break FT • Economics must heed political risk FT • Rajoy vows no bailout without lower yields FT • Apple — what's in the pie? FT • Italian banks — no bad bank yet Lex • Solar energy — looking for place in the sun Lex • Wall Street prays for clear winner to avoid fiscal cliff The Times • Slump in UK output raises chance of more QE Independent EFTA_R1_00824469 EFTA02156006 Key Events This Week Thursday: China's 18th Party Congress (leadership transition) (5-7 days), China data due out tonight (CPI/PPI/FAI/IP/Retail Sales), ECB & BOE rate announcements, Trade Balance, BMO Digital Media Conference (NYC), Earnings (OF, DUK, FE, KSS, WIN, DIS, IGT, ZIP) Friday: U. of Michigan Confidence, Earnings (COV, WAVX, JCP) Sunday: Greek Parliament votes on 2013 budget Key Events on the Horizon November 12 — Eurogroup Meeting November 22/23 — EU Leaders Summit November 25 — Catalonia regional election in Spain Ike Groff EFTA_R1_00824470 EFTA02156007 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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