EFTA02508159

From: jeffrey E. <[email protected]> Sent: Friday, March 20, 2015 7:56 PM To: Daniel Sabba Subject: Re: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 20 Mar Net p$ I on vol trade ?? On Friday, March 20, 2015= Daniel Sabba < </=pan> </=pan> From: Prateek Jain Sent: Friday, March 20, 2015 3:35 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 20 Mar OIL > wrote: Both crudes rallied strongly today with multiple bul=ish news along with dollar weakness. Iran delegation left nuclear ta=ks after meeting with John Kerry and said the talks will resume on 25=h. Kerry stated that talks need high- level consultations. These headlines reduced the optimism about talks=ending positively and crude rallied quickly from there. April WTI expired =oday, very strong compared to May contract. Guess what.. Cushing isn =99t full yet! Cost of storage at Cushing is much below the current spread level and all the CSO open in interest in=apr/may expired yesterday leaving the spread back to fundamentals. April/M=y spread moved from -1.57 yesterday to -0.75 intraday ending at - 0.85. Ver= short market positioning also escalated the rally in the spread with stops triggering on way higher. =/b>US oil rig count fell by 41 to 825..we are now close to 50% below the p=ak rig count (production though is still above the peak rig count level), =nd should see production finally flattening out soon. Obama admin also issued federal regulations for frac=ing mandating drillers on federal lands to reveal the chemicals used, safe=y dispose contaminated water and meet well construction standards. Althoug= only about 5% of US oil production is done on federal lands, the intention is for states to follow suit. Thes= regulations are expected to increase cost of fracking, further reducing m=rgins for oil producers. In other news, Russia's small refineries =ay start scaling back as their discount for exporting fuel decreases with lower oil prices. This is expected to fr=e up 250kbd for export this year from Russia. Libyan exports are coming ba=k at a fast pace with average exports of 500kbd now, up from 208kbd in Feb=as the violence and militia tensions ease. Higher expected supply in front months is still weighing down on spr=ads with may/jun spread trading at -1.13 now. Vols were weaker in both crudes in line with the ral=y.. EFTA_R1_01639101 EFTA02508159 =C2 =C2 =AO WTI (/change) =AO =AO BRE (/change) K15 =AO =A0 48.30% -2.80% =A0 45.50%=A0 -2.00% M15 =AO =A0 48.60% -2.10% =C2 45=30% -1.60% Z15 =C2 =A0 36.55% -1.00% =A0 35.60= -0.60% Z16 =AO =C2 27.40% -0.90% =C2 2=.90% -0.40% </=pan> (I am off Monday and Tuesday, will resume EOD Not= on Wednesday..) 4=pan> </=pan> Metals 3m lvls =AO =CZ dod change =AO support =AO resistance<=> Al $1794 =C2 =AO +$14 =C2 =AO $1750 =C2 $1800 Cu $6050 =C2 =AO +$197 =C2 $6=00 =AO $6100 Zn $2054 =C2 =AO +$33.5 =AO $2000=C2 =AO $2100 Ni $14,145 =C2 =AO +$375 =C2 $14,000 =C2 $14,500=u> Pb $1773.5 =C2 =AO +$62.5 =AO $1700 =C2 =AO $1800 Copper prices have brought the base complex up on sp=culation that Chinese demand is returning due to stocks coming off at Shan=hai and continued issues at the Grasberg mine. In the afternoon a bi= drop off in the dollar fuelled a rise across the board but there are rumours circulating that China will lower i=s rates over the weekend and that China will widen the trading band of CNY= The blockade at Grasberg continues into the 5th day but as there ar= still stocks waiting to be loaded at the port it is unlikely to result in and short term supply issues. M=laysian Finance Ministry officials are meeting to discuss the 6% tax on me=als placed in warehouses from April that is expected to cause copper and n=ckel stocks to leave the region. Rusal has seen gains on an improving outlook on Aluminum as demand rises and sto=ks fall in its key European markets Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 112.= kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are up 1.57% to 1927 kMT Shangh=i Copper on warrant stocks are down 0.93% to 83.3 kMT. LME Copper stocks a=e up 0.41% to 247 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are flat at 314 kMT. Copper Vols are unch, Ali Vols are unch, Nickel Vols=are unch, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch 2 EFTA_R1_01639102 EFTA02508160 </=pan> Regards,</=pan> Prateek Please=access the link for disclaimer: <=pan style="color1595959">http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.h=ml Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/doddfrank This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. 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