EFTA02579650

From: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Sent: Wednesday, January 22, 2014 11:20 AM To: Vinit Sahni Subject: Re: Jeffrey - Equity positioning survey and more (CI thanks, On Wed, Jan 22, 2014 at 4:07 AM, Vinit Sahni <mailto > wrote: Classification: Co=fidential Jeffrey - think flow of funds / positioning quite critical here as the market needs to shift from beta to alpha. The below client positioning data within the institutional world doesn't surprise me, but highlights some trends / dislocations. Especially in EM, staples, the fact that China remains the biggest concern yet very few hedge that risk, long Europe trade= We are crunching some numbers here, to find the best medium to monetize some of the trades. Wanted to highlight some key points from the survey Jan contrarian trades: long bonds, short equities, long EM (brazil), short EU, long pharma, short insurance. within stocks, biggest contrarian trade is long staples, short utilities=/u> Rarely have we seen such bullish growth expectations, mixed with such bleak EM weightings - either EM ready for a breakout or bullish growth expectations wrong 75% of investors expect a stronger global economy in next 12 months, this is a 3y high reading -> explains which was market is skewed, 80% of them expectation below trend growth, therefore reluctant bulls Sharp drop in China growth optimism in Jan (now 28% expecting weaker Chinese economy). expectations were lower in mid-2013, therefore not a surprise. 2nd highest ever Net % saying US $ undervalue= (57%) 54% investors think EUR is overvalued, highest since early 2012 Equity investors say cash levels at 4.5% still quite high, different from the credit community. % of investors saying equities are expensive (net 7%) at highest since Sep 2000, explains the high cash holdings China hard landing biggest tail risk according to investors (trying to find the right tail risk hedge here)<=font> Commodities still very underowned at 1.7 SD below its average Allocation to US equities dips to net 6% overweight in Jan 2014, doesnt sound stretched Net 15% of investors are underweight EM equities which is 2 50s below l0y average Allocation to US equities stays high at 41% overweight, back to 2004-2007 levels EFTA_R1_01754490 EFTA02579650 Allocation to staples falls to lowest level since aug 2003. Gap between long banks and short staples widest in 10yrs Best Vinit Vinit Sahni Managing Director I Global Head - Professional Client Group & Key Clien= Partners Capital Markets Group Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105/108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall), EC2N 1EN London, United Kingdom Tel. Mobile Email vinit Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partn=rs ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DB"). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID), who understand the strategy, characteristi=s and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. This e-mail may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you =re not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail in error) plea=e notify the sender immediately and delete this e-mail. Any unauthorized c=pying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is strict=y forbidden. Please refer to http://www.db.com/en/content/eu_disclosures.htm for =dditional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. The information contained in this communication =s confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute in=ide information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of Jeffrey Epstein Unau=horized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part th=reof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you 2 EFTA_R1_01754491 EFTA02579651 have received t=is communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or=by e-mail to [email protected] <[email protected]> , and destroy this communication and all copies t=ereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved 3 EFTA_R1_01754492 EFTA02579652