Case File
efta-02705504DOJ Data Set 11OtherEFTA02705504
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DOJ Data Set 11
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efta-02705504
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TAP ADVISORS AA
Global Bit Discussion Materials
May 2014
EFTA_R1_02095948
EFTA02705504
Summary of Valuation Methodologies
Ucscriptiun
Spectrum Value
• Industry standard valuation methodology (AKA "Greenfield Approach")
•
• Primary methodology used in the absence of "good" comps
IRR Analysis
• Google's review and endorsement of the financial projections narrows the
discussion items
•
— We've sensitized the analysis for higher discount rates
- We've assumed that 20% of Global Bit's ("GB") equity will be set aside for
employees
• Geostationary satellite spectrum rights have become increasingly scarce in
recent years
•
•
— Whereas historically satellite spectrum rights were granted for nominal
fees, more recently satellite operators have paid up to $90mm per slot
GEO Slot
Equivalent
• GB's spectrum provides coverage that is more comprehensive than
geostationary spectrum and provides significantly more bandwidth
Valuation
• GB's spectrum can be converted into geostationary spectrum slot-equivalents
based on coverage and bandwidth
• We have valued GB's spectrum by applying average purchase prices paid for
geostationary satellite spectrum slots to GB's spectrum slot-equivalents
• In theory, an orbital spectrum right is a government granted license to provide
a particular service in a certain market
•
•
• Franchise licenses in the US cable industry provide an analogous economic
model
Franchise Fee
Valuation
- Cable operators in the US must obtain franchise licenses and pay franchise
fees from each municipality where they wish to offer cable service; these
fees are —5% of revenue
• We applied the same percentage to the revenues generated by GB's business
model as a proxy for the value of the spectrum
$300 million would yield 67%
IRR
$700 million would yield 61%
IRR
$4.6 billion
141 GEO slot equivalents at
532mm/slot
$11.1 billion
NPV of 5% franchise fee of
revenue discounted at 10%
with 0% perpetuity growth
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R1_02095949
EFTA02705505
Summary of Valuation Methodologies (cont'd)
Descriptio❑
Valle
• GB's business model is fundamentally a broadband play which is much more
analogous to the terrestrial wireless business model rather than the traditional
•
FSS business model
Developing
Markets Wireless
— Therefore, can use terrestrial spectrum valuations to provide a proxy for
the value of GB's spectrum
License Proxy
• Industry standard practice is to value spectrum on a MHzPOP basis in order
to account for amount of spectrum and size/density of coverage area
• Valuation metric can be adjusted to take into account varying economic and
technical qualities of the spectrum
• We have reviewed the license/franchise/spectrum book value as a percentage
of total enterprise value for various industries (wireless, cable, satellite)
•
•
License Value of
Mature Businesses • We have applied this ratio to the total "mature" enterprise value of GB's
business model, valuing GB using a 10% WACC
(Wireless, Cable,
Satellite)
Must value company's business model under the assumption that is a
mature business with significant going-concern, brand, goodwill,
customer-relationship and other intangible value
2
$45.3 billion
$6.9-$13.9 billion
10-20% spectrum value of total
enterprise value calculated on
a "mature" basis
TAP ADVISORS AA
EFTA_R1_02095950
EFTA02705506
IRR Analysis
• An IRR or DCF analysis (mathematically equivalent) is an industry standard methodology for determining the value of a cash flow
generating asset
• For a start-up venture such as GB, there are significant assets that need to be acquired and/or developed in order for the business to
function
- If the costs for acquiring/developing these assets are captured by the cash flows then, those assets are not a part of what is being valued
by the analysis. Specific examples include:
• Satellites - captured through capital expenditures
• Manufacturing facilities - captured through capital expenditures
• Intellectual property - captured through NRE spend
• Management talent - captured through the options pool and stock grants
• Capital - captured through required rate of return / WACC
- The valuation (or purchase price in the case of an IRR framework) resulting from the analysis needs to be allocated amongst all the
assets whose costs are not captured in the cash flows
• The only assets that aren't accounted for in the cash flows are the spectrum rights and landing rights
• Landing rights in the Ku-band have historically been very easy to acquire and require nominal administrative fees
4 male on+
Total Soto (mm)
Revenue
% Growth
Tora ha to
2.314
2015
2016
I. lot, I Nil t
rating Prote, t un.
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2012
ol 0
$36.187
406%
1241
2024
1033
$44,461
301%
446
2823
1033
$19,851
1.2.3%
6150
TV
Ls, Total Coon
EBITDA
% Margin
D&&
Err
1/41, Taws
Plus. D&A
LewCepa
Ism. A Net Wooing Cartel
Unleveled KT
leo
Spectrum Purchase Prke
IRR
00
10
/44,
68
( )
( 07)
058)
0-▪ 5)
(
(
(3.
)
(4.804)
01
)
D
)
0
7) 0
)
7)
OD
111
Wa
1
00
1.0
49
146
173
426
60 7
10
$186
51319
$3,738
$8,358
113,666
524.310
We
Nu
500.0%
233.3%
124.1%
63.5%
779%
144
068)
0 107)
($1510
0139)
1450
12.163
55,738
18.862
$16.16'
122.946
529,993
$33,701
0/11
Ws
402%
58,0%
61.7%
64.8%
665%
674%
67.5%
67.6%
(47)
(135)
(159)
(232)
(261)
(172)
4412)
(3831
(418)
(410)
(353)
(3401
0115)
0242)
($317)
0371)
5189
$1,590
$4,025
$6479
$15,749
522.534
529.642
$33,341
ii
0
0
0
0
(073)
(1.206)
(2.120)
0,037)
(3.834)
(7.410)
0,340)
47
135
159
232
261
272
412
383
418
410
353
340
(318)
(621)
(165)
017)
(206)
(79)
(996)
(114)
059)
(114)
(114)
(114)
3
2
3
03)
00)
97
93
83
153
95
86
44381,
0384)
0726)
0324)
($669)
$194
11.708
$3318
$6,711
$11,523
$17,293
$22,556
$24,809
(5001
(3841
4726)
4324)
(669)
191
1,708
3,118
6,711
11,523
17.293
22536
24,809
$500
63.63/4
111,1021
Purchase Dam
6/30/14
Terminal Value C
ulat. on
2025 DITTDA
(ass Normalued D&A
EMT
Less: Taxes
Plus: 3kermlixed D&A
Lem: Nam alixed CapEx
Nel Terminal ra
533,701
(370)
$33,331
0333)
370
(370)
524,998
PerpetuityGrowth Rate
0.0%
PetpeRniv 0r.count Rate
IR 0%
Terminal Value
$138478
lmplird ORDA Muni*
4.1x
Envloym Ownership
20.0%
Nei Terminal Valve
1111.102
TAP ADVISORS sA
EFTA_R1_02095951
120
66
1.36
EFTA02705507
IRR Sensitivity Analysis
ERR ccmnn,n
I
I
I
5300
66.9%
400
652%
500
634%
600
62.2%
700
610%
00%
5300
66.9%
400
65.2%
500
634%
600
62.2%
700
614%
0%
5300
66.9%
400
65.2%
500
634%
600
622%
700
610%
Meremeelal SAC
50
$75
$150
5225
645%
61.6%
590%
62.9%
615%
602%
590%
40.2%
589%
57.7%
56.6%
57.7%
565%
55.4%
544%
Satellite CapEx Inman
20D%
400%
60.0%
65.7%
616%
635%
64,1%
624%
61.3%
60.1%
630%
61.7%
60.4%
59.3%
620%
60.7%
59.5%
585%
Mn) Rechmlien %
15%
30%
45%
630%
582%
532%
61.4%
59.9%
584%
573%
55.9%
54.7%
519%
504%
493%
57,4%
33.6%
483%
Implied 2023 EDEMA Marla
674%
67.4%
67.0%
66.5%
65.5%
5300
55.9%
54.8%
537%
52.7%
512%
800%
62.5%
61.1%
592%
582%
57.7%
60%
46.1%
449%
43.9%
429%
420%
I
I
lnaemental Chown %
0%
5300
66.9%
400
652%
500
634%
600
62.2%
700
610%
00%
5300
669%
400
65.2%
500
634%
600
622%
700
610%
8%
15%
23%
654%
636%
620%
63.7%
62.1%
604%
622%
604%
59D%
601%
593%
57.7%
594%
58.1%
565%
NRECapF.x Increase
250%
50.0%
75.0%
653%
632%
624%
63.7%
623%
610%
592%
623%
611%
599%
582%
61.1%
59.9%
58.8%
578%
C.009 Increase%
30%
602%
58.6%
572%
56.0%
542%
NOD%
61.1%
399%
582%
572%
56.9%
$300
500
600
700
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
669%
645%
611%
59.9%
572%
652%
559%
616%
547%
622%
53.6%
610%
590%
56.9%
549%
526%
latiAle4 2025 EDITDA Musla
674%
621%
582%
535%
482%
62.9%
615%
602%
604%
592%
580%
58.5%
572%
56.0%
I
I
5300
400
503
600
700
0
66.9%
652%
634%
622%
610%
De
6
653
63.5%
61.9%
605%
593%
M Delp
12
60.4%
582%
56.1%
573%
542%
560%
534%
54.9%
18
57.6%
5300
400
500
600
700
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
10%
674%
652%
64.3%
62.9%
617%
0%
634%
59.9%
55.9%
50.6%
43.9%
420%
394%
523%
Em
Ownendi
15%
672%
655%
610%
62.6%
613%
24
524%
510%
49.8%
484%
47.6%
20%
66.9%
652%
634%
622%
610%
25%
30%
66.2%
644%
62.9%
61.5%
665%
642%
633%
61.9%
60.6%
603%
Coils remise %
15%
30%
45%
615%
592%
572%
572%
531%
485%
55.9%
515%
462%
53.5%
49.1%
442%
372%
Now: &Kinney 5500mm Swine I Parcher Prtir
60%
542%
510%
464%
41.6%
342%
CBITnk lzrgn M-nr,inty
COSti hic rea se %
0%
0%
674%
15%
674%
30%
670%
45%
645%
60%
655%
IS%
30%
62.9%
624%
62.2%
61.6%
605%
552%
57.9%
574%
56/f
55.5%
45%
60%
48.8%
484%
478%
46.9%
535%
53.1%
526%
518%
504%
454%
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R 1_02095952
EFTA02705508
IRR Sensitivity Analysis (cont'd)
Even with draconian haircuts to the business plan, Google would still significantly exceed its cost of capital
I RR Waterfall Is/ Purchase Price Range of 5300-700mm
0
0
The business case contemplates a partnership approach
where local distributors carry the burden or subscriber
acquisition in exchange for a revenue share
— We assumed an incremental $150/sub SAC cost in
addition to the revenue share
Churn costs (in the form of SAC and hardware subsidies)
will be borne by distributors in exchange for a revenue
share; take rate projections were developed on a "net
adds" basis
— We assumed 30% incremental chum resulting in
80.0% -
70.0% •
60.0% -
66.9%
61.0%
61.6%
56.6%
increased SAC costs and lower revenue
50.0% -
47.1%
0
Current plan ARPUs are based on detailed market
analysis; they offer better service for lower prices than
competitors
10.0% -
43.3%
38.•1%
0
— We reduced ARPU by 20%; this is incremental to the
revenue reduction as a result of chum
Current operating costs are based on a detailed, bottoms-
up cost model with significant cushion built in (15% of
revenue in excess of scheduled costs)
30.0% -
35.5%
34.0%
33.1%
30.3%
31.5%
30.7%
28.4%
— We increased fixed and variable costs by 20%, thereby
reducing EBITDA margins
20.0% -
16.5%
0
Satellite, launch and NRE capital expenditures have been
based on detailed discussions with and proposals from
15.1%
vendors
10.0% -
— We increased manufacturing and launch capex by 20%
and NRE capex by 100%, significantly increasing
required capital
0.0%
Base Case SAC
Churn
ARPU
Costs
Satellite
NRE
Delay +2
0
Satellite and commercial launch based on a detailed
schedule developed by management and Google
+$150
+30%
-20%
+20%
Capex
Capex
yrs
— We delayed commercial launch by 2 years to provide
-Ir..
•1(K1'
additional buffer for delays
5
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R1_02095853
EFTA02705509
GEO Slot Equivalent Valuation
■ Historically, orbital spectrum rights were assigned for nominal fees
• As high-quality orbital spectrum rights have become scarce, valuations have gone up dramatically
— Recently, satellite operators have paid upwards of $90mm for satellite orbital slot licenses
Recent Brazil Orbital Slot Auction Results
Year
Company
Price (S mm)
Bands
Longitude
2014
Hispasat
$29.3
Ku
61 W
2014
SES
14.9
C, Ku, Ka
48 W
2014
SES
12.1
Ku
64 W
2014
Eutelsat
12.8
C, Ku
69.45 W
2011
Hughes Network Systems
91.6
Ku, Ka
45 W
2011
Hughes Network Systems
22.2
Ku, Ka, X
68.5 W
2011
Star One
23.3
Ku, Ka
84 W
2011
Star One
23.3
Ku, Ka, X
70W
Average Price/Slot
$28.7
High
91.6
LOU'
12.1
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R1_02095954
EFTA02705510
GEO Slot Equivalent Valuation (cont'd)
Additionally, when orbital spectrum rights have been acquired in M&A transactions, the acquirer is required to
mark to market the value of those rights, providing a market-based valuation for orbital rights
Intel sal -Pa na insat
• Panamsat merged with Intelsat Bermuda (subsidiary of Intelsat)
in 2005, making the world's largest commercial satellite
company
— Leading global FSS provider of video, corporate, Internet,
voice and government communications services
— Had a fleet of 23 active satellites (including 2 backup
satellites)
• Allocated $1.1 billion of the $3.3 billion purchase price to orbital
slot value
— 34% of total value attributable to orbital slots
-
$59 million per slot over 19 orbital slots
Viasat-WildBlue
• WildBlue acquired by Viasat in 2009
- Premier Ka-band satellite broadband service provider
- Didn't own any orbital slots, but had 2 satellites that were
providing service under colocation agreement
• Allocated $8.2 million of the $574 million purchase price to
satellite co-location rights
- 10 year agreement set to expire in 2019
- Extrapolating $8.2 million per 10 years as a DCF (at 3%
inflation) to estimate perpetual rights yields an NPV of the
slot of $21.7 million, at a discount rate of 8%
I oral/PSI I elesat Canada
• Telesat Canada acquired by Loral Space & Communications and
the Public Pension Investment Board of Canada in 2007;
subsequently, was merged with Loral Skynet
- Satellite services operator and provider of global
communications services to broadcast, telecom, corporate
and government customers
- Had 13 GEO satellites in operation
• Allocated $494 million of the $3.3 billion purchase price to
orbital slot value
- 15% of total value attributable to orbital slots
— $45 million per slot over 11 orbital slots
TAP ADVISORS sA
7
EFTA_R1_02095955
EFTA02705511
GEO Slot Equivalent Valuation (cont'd)
We valued GB's spectrum by converting it into "geo slot equivalents" and applied the range of prices paid for
orbital spectrum rights
CEO Slot Equivalent Calculation
(Bandwidth in Gips)
Bandwidth / Spot Beam
Spot Beams / Satellite
Satellites / Constellation
0.59
19
1,560
[1.971
119]
1,560
Total Bandwidth
17,347
58,406
75,754
% of Capacity over Land
25%
25%
25%
Total Bandwidth Over Land
4,337
14,602
18,938
ViaSat-1 Bandwidth
134
134
134
ViaSat-1 Slot Equivalents
32
109
C141)
First
Constellation
Second
Constellation
Total
'slot \ aloes
Year
Company
Price (5 mm)
Bands
Longitude
2014
Hispasat
5293
Ku
61 W
2014
SES
14.9
C, Ku, Ka
48 W
2014
SES
12.1
Ku
64 W
2014
Eutelsat
12.8
C, Ku
69.45 W
2011
Hughes Network Systems
91.6
Ku, Ka
45 W
2011
Hughes Network Systems
22.2
Ku, ICa, X
68.5W
2011
Star One
233
Ku, Ka
84 W
2011
Star One
23.3
Ku, ICa, X
70 W
2009
Wildblue
21.7
Ka
111.1 W
2007
Telesat Canada
45.0
various
various
2005
Panamsat
59.0
various
various
Average Price/Slot
$333
Number of Slots
(...141.e>1
Global Bit Spectrum Value
$4,563
8
TAP ADVISORS sA
EFTA_R1_02095956
EFTA02705512
Franchise Fee Valuation
• In theory, an orbital spectrum right is a government granted license to provide a particular service in a certain market
• Franchise licenses in the US cable industry provide an analogous economic model
- Cable operators in the US must obtain franchise licenses and pay franchise fees from each municipality where they wish to offer cable
service; these fees are —5% of revenue
• Apply the same percentage to the revenues generated by the Company's business model as a proxy for the value of the spectrum
• The comparison is imperfect:
— GB's rights are fundamentally superior to franchise rights as franchise rights are generally non-exclusive whereas GB will have exclusive
rights to provide high-bandwidth, low-latency Ku-band broadband access from a LEO orbit
- Comparison does not account for CapEx/OpEx differences in the broadband vs. MSO business model
Cable Co Franchise Fee Analysis
n
Corricast
Time Warner Cable
Charter
Franchise
Fee I'aid
Video
Revenue
$1,259
$19,936
490
10,183
190
3,840
Fr. Fee as "0
Video Revenue
6.3%
4.7%
4.9%
Spectrum Cash I hos. Based on CableCo I ranchise ire Structure
2015
(S vtitlimul
Revenue
Frandtise Fee %
Spectrum Cash Flows
PV of Spectrum Cash Flows
2014
2016
2017
2018
$0
$0
$0
$186
$1,119
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
SO
SO
$0
$9
$56
2019
$3,730
2020
$8,358
2021
$13,666
2022
2023
$24,310
$34,187
2024
$44,461
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
.5.0%
5.0%
$186
$418
$683
$1,216
$1,709
$2,223
T'Y
$22,231
$0
$o
so
$7
S38
$116
$236
$351
$567
$725
$857
58,172
NPV
$11,069
Discount Rate
Perpetuity Growth
10.0%
0.0%
NPV Sensitivity
I
O
Franchise Fee %
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
6.0%
$14,431
$19,241
8.0%
9,459
10.0%
6,641
12.0%
4,877
14.0%
3,698
4,930
$24,051
$28,861
12,612
8,855
6,502
15,764
18,917
11,069
13,282
8,128
9,754
6,163
7,395
$33,672
22,070
15.496
11,379
8428
0
gg
Franchise Fee %
0.0%
15.0%
30.0%
45.0%
60.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
$8,855
$11,069
$13,282
$6,641
5,645
4,649
3,653
2456
7.0%
7,527
6,198
4,870
3,542
4,427
5,313
9,408
11290
7,748
9298
6,088
7,305
. late: calculated using 10% discount mt< TAp
9
$15,496
13,172
10,847
8,523
6,198
ADVISORS AA
EFTA_R1_02095957
EFTA02705513
Developing Markets Wireless License Proxy
• GB's business model is fundamentally a broadband play which is much more analogous to the terrestrial wireless business model rather
than the traditional FSS business model
— Traditional FSS uses wide coverage beams (often encompassing entire continents) thereby broadcasting identical information to a wide
geographic footprint (perfect for some applications, such as DTH video)
— GB's business model uses many small spot beams each carrying unique data which is well suited for broadband service
- Therefore, can use terrestrial spectrum valuations to provide a proxy for the value of satellite spectrum
• Industry standard practice is to value spectrum on a MHzPOP basis in order to account for amount of spectrum and size/density of
coverage area
• Valuation metric needs to be adjusted for varying economic and technical qualities of the spectrum
— Terrestrial spectrum, under optional conditions, can theoretically reach spectral efficiencies of 30 bits/Hz, although real world values
are closer to 1-7 bits/Hz
- GB's first generation constellation will have a spectral efficiency of 1.2 bits/Hz
- (Satellite networks can achieve 2x the frequency reuse of terrestrial networks by implementing dual-polarization frequency reuse, which
is difficult to implement in terrestrial networks] - this has not been reflected in the valuation analysis
- The build-out costs for terrestrial networks, on a per covered POP basis, are orders of magnitude higher than for satellite networks - this
has not been reflected in the valuation analysis
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Average Price/MHzPOPM
$0.12
Median
0.08
Global Bit Spectrum
Spectrum (MHz)
Population (mm)
MHzPOP (mm)
2,050
7,046
14,444,300
Wireless Spectral Efficiency
30.00
Global Bit Spectral Efficiency
120
Efficiency Factor
0.04
Adjusted MHzPOP (mm)
577,772
Median Price/ MHzPOP
0.08
GB Spectrum Value ($mm)
$45,319
Illustrative Comparison of Build-Out Off\
Myanmar (Ooredoo)
US. (AT&T Wireless)
US. (Industry Estimate)ta)
Global (Global Bit)
Excludes top 4 and bottom 4 auction results; see Appendix for full dataset
AT&T disclosures indicate that 24% of its PP&E (of 4275bn) is related to the wireless business
Industry insider/expert estimate for de novo spectrum build out
I 0
Build-Out
CapEx
$15,000
65,952(3)
3,750
3,210
Population
Coverage On m
56
$269.08
319
206.81
319
11.76
7,046
0.46
Implied
Cost/POI'
TAP ADVISORS sA
EFTA_R1_02095958
EFTA02705514
License Value of Mature Businesses
• Companies across the wireless, cable and satellite industries assign a carrying value to license/franchise/spectrum rights on their books
- Unlike young companies, mature businesses have spent significant capital building up hard assets, intangibles (other than
license/spectrum/franchise rights) as well as going-concern value. These assets are already paid for and thus the enterprise value needs
to be allocated among these assets
• The percentage of license/franchise/spectrum value of enterprise value of these companies can be applied to GB's enterprise value to value
spectrum assets. Analysis only applies if GB is valued on a "mature" basis. Two possible approaches:
— Estimate the value of hard assets, intangibles, and going concern-value the business would develop once it reached steady state - very
difficult, if not impossible, to do
- Value the company on a DCF basis using a steady-state WACC (we used 10%)
License Value Across Industries
License Value Across Industries
License
Enterprise
%LV
License
Enterprise
LV
IS millions)
Country
Value
Value
of EV
(S millions)
Country
Value
Value
of LV
Mobile Carriers
Cable Companies
AT&T
USA
S59,584
$166,987
35.7%
Comcast
USA
$56,364
5182.364
30.9%
Verizon
USA
72,713
260,301
27.9%
Time Warner Cable
USA
26,934
64,056
42.0%
Sprint
USA
41,978
62,898
66.7%
Charter
USA
6,009
28,101
21.4%
T-Mobile
USA
17)83
39,464
44.0%
Cablevision
USA
732
13,416
53%
China Mobile
China
222
142,677
0.2%
Shaw Communications
Canada
7,476
14,802
505%
Vodafone
United Kingdom
43,991
102,552
42.9%
DBS
Bharti Airtel
India
3,013
32,732
9.2%
America Movil
Mexico
9,433
118,679
7.9%
Dish
USA
$3,297
$30,234
10.9%
Telefonica
Spain
27238
145,411
18.7%
DirecTV
USA
785
55,918
1.4%
Axiata
Malaysia
580
20,809
2.8%
FSS
Vimpelcom
Netherlands
6,797
39210
173%
SES
Luxembourg
$1,011
518,391
53%
Etisalat
UAE
2,191
25,045
8.7%
Intelsat
Luxembourg
2.388
17,301
13.8%
Telenor
Norway
5,962
45,015
13.2%
TeliaSonera
Sweden
1,252
45,521
2.8%
Other
Sirius XM
Deutsche Telekom
Germany
48,476
141,020
34,4%
USA
52,084
$25,750
8.1%
Reliance Communications India
4,282
10,557
40.6%
Iridium
USA
14
1,323
1.1%
Idea Cellular
India
1,730
10,719
16.1%
MI5
Russia
182
23,731
0.8%
Average")
17.8%
Telecom Italia
Italy
8,803
61,933
142%
Median
13.8%
Tata Teleservictu
India
366
1,266
28.9%
Global Bit Implied Spectrum Value
Turkccll
Turkey
1,112
9,261
12.0%
Spectrum Value as % of EVa)
Megaton
Russia
1.905
24529
7.8%
(1) Excludes top 4 and bottom 4 observations
(2) Calculated off F.V of 569,620mm; based on 10% WACC and 0% perpetuity growth 11
10.0%
12.5%
15.0%
17.5%
20.0%
$6,962
I
$8,703
510,443
512,184
I
$13,924
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R1_02095959
EFTA02705515
Appendix
EFTA_R1_02095960
EFTA02705516
Financial Projections
Base case model: no SAC or churn; revenue, costs, capex and timing as projected
Putrha.e Pale
6/30/14
0 matrns;
Pumha...
2014
2015
201e
2017
'018
201
20'0
2021
2022
2
2u24
2025
It
Terminal Value ( • kulaiwo
'foul Cub, Onn0
11(1
00
00
10
4
146
273
426
60.7
810
1033
1033
2025 EBITDA
$33,701
Revenue
SO
SO
$0
$186
$1,119
$3,730
$3,358
513266
$2010
$34,187
$41,461
$49851
Len. Normalized D&A
(370)
% CAntilt
Ne
we
Mt
get.
500.0%
2333%
124.1%
635%
77.9%
40.6%
30.1%
121%
ENT
$33,331
Las: Taxes
(8,333)
Network Ops & Tranweswo
$8
$14
$18
$43
$53
$87
$150
$212
$335
5442
5510
$584
Plus. Normalized
370
Set Manufaclunm;
8
15
30
63
32
32
64
35
66
36
36
36
Is,,: Nornulired CapE%
(370)
Billing Sr Care
0
1
1
16
86
274
587
926
1512
2.124
2,762
3,096
Net Terminal IMF
$24298
ReVellUe Share
0
0
0
IS
90
298
669
1493
1,94$
2.735
3257
3,936
Rat Deln
0
0
0
2
11
37
84
137
243
342
445
499
Perpetuity Growth Rate
0.0%
Ampeluely INfionn1 Rase
180%
VartaNe Cosa
$16
$30
$19
5139
$272
5730
$1,553
52403
$1,101
55.678
57,329
58203
TennInal Value
$138278
Mktg & Prod Dev
$6
$14
$34
$65
$96
5107
$109
$120
$131
$142
$154
$154
Implied LAMM Multiple
&Ix
Research & Dcv
17
21
23
21
37
49
62
67
33
94
104
105
Employee Clu nen.hip
200%
GRA
29
42
53
97
264
681
1-195
2214
3228
5327
6,880
7.689
Not Terminal Value
$111,102
Fluid Costa
$52
$77
$109
$136
$396
5337
$1267
$2401
$4,043
$5,563
57238
$7,947
Suhwnter Acqumition Coals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gres Add«
0
0
0
I
4
10
13
15
18
20
22
0
Corczvr Cruse Aid
s: Total Cub
We
(68)
*5,
(107)
' v.(
(158)
116
(125)
58
(669)
46
(1567)
64
(3,120)
80
(4.304)
123
0214)
139
(11.241)
161
0067)
eft
(16.150
84311DA
000
0107)
0158)
0139)
$150
$2,163
$5,238
5062
$16246
$22,916
$29,995
133201
Alergin
Mt
Mt
40.2%
58.0%
62.7%
642%
663%
67.1%
67SX
676%
s: D&A
(47)
(133)
059)
(242)
(261)
(272)
(4112)
(383)
(418)
(410)
(353)
(340)
ERIT
0115)
0 2411
153171
0371)
$189
$1290
$4,025
$8479
615749
S22.536
$29,642
633.361
LewTaxes
0
0
0
0
0
0 73)
(1206)
(2.110)
(3.9371
0.634)
(7.410)
0240)
Plus: D&A
47
135
159
232
261
272
412
383
418
410
353
340
Less:CapFA
PIS)
0 21)
068)
pin
(206)
(79)
(996)
(114)
(859)
(114)
(114)
(114)
less. A Net Pierian Ca tel
3
2
3
3
97
83
83
153
95
86
418
Uakvered FCV
0384)
0726)
($324)
06691
$194
$1,703
$3,118
$6711
$11.523
$17,293
$22,556
524809
FCF
000)
084)
(726)
(3241
(669)
194
1200
3,118
6,711
11.523
17,293
22,556
24209
111.102
Spectrum Purchase Price
5500
IRR
63.6%
13
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R1_02095961
EFTA02705517
Key Assumptions
Global Bit Operating Assumptions
($ minions, except per unit amounts)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
RF Satellite Launches:
Phase 1
1560 satellites
2017-2024
Phase 2
1560 satellites
2020-2027
Phase 3
1560 satellites
2022-2029
Coverage:.
Land Coverage
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
Capacity Utilization
0%
0%
0%
1%
5%
15%
16%
25%
21%
28%
40%
40%
Business Customers (based off total)
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
35%
Overall Utilization
0%
0%
0%
1%
7%
20%
22%
34%
28%
38%
54%
54%
Provisioning (at lowest residential package):
240 Kbps Allocation
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
60.0%
180 Kbps Allocation
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
90.0%
90.0%
35.0%
35.0%
35.0%
35.0%
60 Kbps Allocation
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
60 Kbps Allocation (Entry)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
10.0%
10.0%
5,0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
Customer Care / Sub / Year
$0
$0
$0
$7
$6
$5
$4
$3
$1
$1
$1
SI
Residential ARPU:
Capacity.
Costs:
CapEx:
240 kbps
$20
Phase I Gbps / Sat
11.12
Backhaul/Circuits %
1.0%
Manufacturing CapEx / Sat
$250,000
180 Icbps
15
Phase 2 Gbps / Sat
37.44
Revenue Share %
8.0%
Launch CapEx / Sat
325,000
60 kbps
15
Phase 3 Gbps / Sat
55.50
Other G&A % of Rev
15.0%
Total NRE CapEx (Swim)
675
60 kbps (entry)
5
SAC
$0
Ongoing CapEx / Year ($nun)
114
Business
80 - 100
TAP ADVISORS AS
EFTA_R1_02095962
EFTA02705518
Developing Markets Wireless License Proxy
Relent
)12VCIOpIllg Market
Sri:OIL/Ill
AUCtIM1 Rt alts
Country
Year
Price ISmml
MHz Bou
t
Population (mm)
WM I lzPOP
India
2014
30,081
10
1,009
52.98
Croatia
2013
31
10
5
0.67
Excluded from Average
Czech Republic
2013
136
20
10
0.66
Czech Republic
2013
122
20
10
059
Czech Republic
2013
114
20
10
0.56
Croatia
2013
19
10
5
0.41
Myanmar
2014
500
30
56
0.30
India
2014
2,627
12
1,009
022
India
2014
1,887
14
1,009
0.13
India
2014
2,108
20
1,009
0.10
India
2014
2,168
21
1,009
0.10
Pakistan
2014
307
20
174
0.09
Pakistan
2014
301
20
174
0.09
Pakistan
2014
148
10
174
0.08
Pakistan
2014
148
10
174
0.08
Czech Republic
2013
2
2
10
0.08
Czech Republic
2013
3
4
10
0.08
Czech Republic
2013
2
2
10
0.08
Czech Republic
2013
2
2
10
0.08
Czech Republic
2013
7
10
10
0.06
Pakistan
2014
210
20
174
0.06
Slovakia
2014
9
30
5
0.05
Czech Republic
2013
16
40
10
0.04
Czech Republic
2013
16
40
10
0.04
Czech Republic
2013
16
40
10
0.04
India
2014
143
3.6
1,009
0.04
Lithuania
2013
0
20
3
0.03
Chile
2014
13
30
17
0.02
Chile
2014
8
20
17
0.02
Lithuania
2013
20
3
0.01
Lithuania
2013
0
20
3
0.01
Excluded from Average
Latvia
2014
0
20
2
0.00
Chile
2014
$1
20
17
0.00
TAP ADVISORS sA
15
EFTA_R 1_02095963
EFTA02705519
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by TAP Advisors ("TAP") for the exclusive use of the party to whom TAP delivers this presentation
(together with its subsidiaries and affiliates, the "Company") using information provided by the Company and other publicly available
information. TAP has not independently verified the information contained herein, nor does TAP make any representation or warranty, either
express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in this presentation. Any estimates or
projections as to events that may occur in the future (including projections of revenue, expense, net income and stock performance) are based
upon the best judgment of TAP from the information provided by the Company and other publicly available information as of the date of this
presentation. There is no guarantee that any of these estimates or projections will be achieved. Actual results will vary from the projections and
such variations may be material. Nothing contained herein is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise or representation as to the past or future.
TAP expressly disclaims any and all liability relating or resulting from the use of this presentation.
This presentation has been prepared solely for the informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell
any securities or related financial instruments. The Company should not construe the contents of this presentation as legal, tax, accounting or
investment advice or a recommendation. The Company should consult its own counsel, tax and financial advisors as to legal and related
matters concerning any transaction described herein. This presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information
that the Company may require. No investment, divestment or other financial decisions or actions should be based solely on the information in
this presentation.
This presentation has been prepared on a confidential basis solely for the use and benefit of the Company. Distribution of this presentation to
any person other than the Company and those persons retained to advise the Company, who agree to maintain the confidentiality of this
material and be bound by the limitations outlined herein, is unauthorized. This material must not be copied, reproduced, distributed or passed
to others at any time without the prior written consent of TAP.
TAP ADVISORS sA
EFTA_ R1_ 02095964
EFTA02705520
Technical Artifacts (20)
View in Artifacts BrowserEmail addresses, URLs, phone numbers, and other technical indicators extracted from this document.
Phone
2552966Phone
2705504Phone
2705505Phone
2705506Phone
2705507Phone
2705508Phone
2705509Phone
2705510Phone
2705511Phone
2705512Phone
2705513Phone
2705514Phone
2705515Phone
2705516Phone
2705517Phone
2705518Phone
2705519Phone
2705520URL
http://online.wstcom/news/articles/SB10001424052702303743604579352310122552966Wire Ref
reflectedForum Discussions
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