From: Ike Groff

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 3.15.12 Date: Thu, 15 Mar 2012 10:13:27 +0000 Good Morning ... European Markets up 0-25 bps (Spain & UK down small) ... Nikkei Closed +0.72% (HSI +0.21%, China -0.73%, KOSPI -0.06%) EUR 1.3063 (+0.23%) JPY 83.68 (+0.06%) NZD .8139 (+0.57%) Copper +0.26% Nat Gas -1.58% US 10yr 2.296% Futures: Dow +14, Nasdaq +5, S&P +2 DXY $80.40 (-16c) Crude $105.62 (+19c) Gold $1646.20 (+$3.30) Silver +0.26% SHCOMP lower again overnight -0.73% on follow thru from Wen's comments yesterday, a lower foreign direct investment print, as well as fears of widening political rifts ahead of a power transition this fall after a senior Chinese leader was ousted as Communist party secretary in Chongqing. Also getting some attention this morning, JPM strategist Adrian Mowat spoke at a conference in Singapore yesterday and noted that recent data suggests China's economy is already in a "hard landing" and he continues to feel that policymakers are at risk of getting behind the curve. Fairly quiet otherwise overnight. Options expiration tomorrow with a large amount of open interest in the SPX 1400 strike calls relative to puts. Europe slightly higher but fading back to flat on average volumes today. DAX +19bps which takes it to +20.26% ytd. Spain & France bond auctions went ok. S&P futures +2 handles = 1390.90 last. ***PPI & Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Philly Fed @ 10am*** ***Credit Card Master Trust data out today*** PayPal event in SF today (set to launch refreshed payment service for small businesses) Google to revitalize search engine (more facts and direct answers to queries) (WSJ<http://professional.wsj.com/article/S1910001424052702304459804577281842851136290.html? mg=reno64-sec-wsj>) -12%) week) info) Guess guides Q1 eps to 25c-28c vs 48c est (revs & margins below street) (trading Avaya to buy RADVision $11.85/share (stock has moved from $7.65 to $11.20 this Cisco in talks to acquire NDS Group for $5 billion says website Calcalist (no other Romney campaign notes Santorum needs to win 69% of remaining delegates to hit 1,144 Fitch cuts outlook on UK's AAA rating to negative from stable on elevated debt levels Pernod-Ricard holder GBL selling up to 6509 million in shares in accelerated book build K+S Q4 beats, lowers FY EBIT on lower salt vols, 2013 guidance conservative (trading +6%) Aegis FY good with positive outlook despite environment, dividend better (trading -0.2%) Trinity Mirror revs miss but EPS beats, debt reduced, new financing announced (trading +4.5%) EFTA00417991 Playtech FY slightly ahead and says it looks to future with " great optimism" (trading -2%) +1.6%) -1.0%) Lufthansa FY positive with increase in EBIT, fuel price to determine 2012 profit (trading -1.7%) F&C broadly inline, AUM -5% y/y already flagged with no new update provided (trading -1.2%) HeidelbergCement Q4 better, outlook good, hints at strong YTD in North America (trading +3%) H&M Feb sales figs ahead with comp sales positive for 3rd month in a row (trading Home Retail Q4 sales Argos inline, Homebase weaker, maintains guidance (trading European car sales -9.2% in February says ACEA (biggest drop since October 2010) India RBI leaves rates unchanged (expected but some had been hoping for a cut) (Sensex -1.17%) criticism -0.84%) January) China February actual foreign direct investment -0.9% y/y versus estimate +14.6% China ousts Bo Xilai as Communist party secretary in Chongqing after Wen's China Mobile posts a 4.6% gain in Q4 profit as data sales gain (closed +0.53%) Galaxy Entertainment misses analyst estimates and will not pay dividend (closed Bank of Communications (Bocom) plans to raise about $9 billion in share offering NZ February Manufacturing expanded at faster pace (57.7 from revised 50.8 in NZ March consumer confidence fell to 110.2 from 113.3 in February (ANZ report) Myer Holdings (AU department store) H1 earnings -18% as consumer spending stalls Leading European Sectors: Basic Resource +0.67%, Tech +0.60%, Insurance +0.56% Lagging European Sectors: Trav/Les -0.47%, Telco -0.46%, Media -0.38% RUE outlook disappoints - VRA q4 beats & FY raise - GES guides down GSIG guides ql lower - ADTN lowers forecast - BEBE guides high end NEU new credit facility - PDFS unexpected cfo leave - CPRS amended Si LPX ceo to retire - TWER q4 beats (rev view touch light) - NCT boosts div Secondaries (announced/priced): COF, RI FP, APU, PCG IPO's (filed/priced): Demandware (DWRE) 5.5M shares priced @ $16, Allison Transmission (ALSN) 26.1M shares priced @ $23, M/a-com Technology (MTSI) 6M shares priced at $19 Key Research: JOY Key Research: (buy) Key Research: Key Research: Barcap upgrades UNP & downgrades NSC, GS downgrades WMS (sell), UBS downgrades Brean Murray downgrades HOGS, Jefferies downgrades XCO/DLR & upgrades AMD CLSA upgrades Toshiba (6502 JP) (buy), JMP upgrades NUVA, Raja downgrades UAM CS initiates SYK/ZMH (op's), Piper initiates SPNC/GTIV (ow), FBR initiates WRLD (mp), Sitfel upgrades AFFY (buy) Key Research: DB upgrades VECO (buy), Baird downgrades RRMS, Susquehanna initiates MYL/WPI EFTA00417992 (positive's) Key Research: Stifel initiates ARIA/ARQL/CEMP (buy's) and DNDN (hold) & resumes AMGN/ACOR/BIIB/CELG/GILD (buy's) Reporting Pre-Open: ROST, AMCX, AMS, AXAS, AZK, CATO, CMRG, CTC, CV, DLIA, GNVC, HNR, HSOL, HWCC, IVAN, LIWA, ORBC, PRST, ORE, ROIAK, SCHL, STON, TA, VAC, VITC, VTG, VVTV, WGO, YONG, ARDNA, CLSN, KCAP, KITD Reporting Post-Close: ACFN, AGM, COMV, CWCO, DOLE, GAIA, GTY, INTX, NWY, PRMW, PWRD, RNF, RSOL, RTK, ULTR, UWN, VGZ Economic Data: Empire Manufacturing / PPI / Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, TIC Flows @ 9am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am, Philadelphia Fed @ 10am Geithner speaks to Economic Club of New York @ 12pm Conferences: JPM Aviation, Transportation & Defense (NYC), UBS Global Consumer (Boston) Conferences: GS Paper and Forest Products (Montreal), Barrington Tech (Chicago) Analyst/Investor Days: EPL, MDU, SFY, NANO, STR, RSTI, LRN, UTX Non-Deal Roadshows: AAWW, BERG, BCRX, SIP, CCOI, CHEF, CHMT, CKSW, CLPHY, CNDO, CNQR, COV, CRNT, DK, DVN, DXPE, ECL, EFII, ESL, GLW, HAFC, HPY, HTHT, HUM, IFSIA, INFY, INTC, IRET, KLAC, LEN, LTXC, MSFT, QGEN, SGEN, SON, SRI, STAA, TDC, TFX, THR, TSS, VPHM, WWD, ALEX, NAV Shareholder Meetings: OMN, ASA, BLD, HURC, NEI, SHFL, FFIV Equity/Mixed Shelf s: GEVO ($150M), GSIG ($200M), MUSA, GXP Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) Barron's<http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904797004577281481808685666.html> The ever growing Greek bailout WSJ<http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2012/03/14/the- ever-growing-greek-bailout/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=brussels> Foxwoods is fighting for its life NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/18/magazine/mike-sokolove-foxwood-casinos.html? _r=1&smid=tw-nytimes&seid=auto> Bond sale implies Italy better positioned than Spain WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702304692804577281251466843914.html> Google Gives Search a Refresh WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304459804577281842851136290.html> SEC Cracks Down on Pre-IPO Trading WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304692804577281844105719500.html? mod=ITP_pageone_0> Doctors Struggle to Make Ends Meet WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052970204603004577271340816194320.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_0> Questions as Banks Increase Dividends NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/economy/questions-as-banks-increase- dividends.html> A Groupon Alternative Aims to Offer Small Businesses a Better Deal NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/smallbusiness/a-groupon-alternative-aims-to- offer-small-businesses-a-better-deal.html?ref=todayspaper> EFTA00417993 A Jobs Bill That Will Provide Help, but for All the Wrong People NYT DealBook<http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/03/14/a-jobs-bill-that-will-provide-help-but-for- all-the-wrong-people/?ref=todayspaper> Private Businesses Fight Federal Prisons for Contracts NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/15/business/private-businesses-fight-federal-prisons-for- contracts.html> Why the latest mortgage war was months in the making Globe and Mail<http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-the-latest-mortgage-war-was-months-in- the-making/article2369646/> Dutch Labour party threat to vote down Eurozone fiscal pact FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b763fb7a-6db9-11el-b98d-00144feab49a.htmlifaxzzlosmq6Ucr> Ireland battling for relief on debt repayment FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a4c575e4-6dea-llel-b9c7-00144feab49a.htmlfaxzzlosmq6Ucr> Merkel no longer set to campaign with Sarkozy FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/456ee0ea-6dee-llel-baa5-00144feab49a.htmlfaxzzlosmq6Ucr> Lack of volume and institutional players show rally is running on empty FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3c22573a-6c57-11e1-8c9d-00144feab49a.htmlftaxzzlosmq6Ucr> Fitch revises UK outlook to negative from stable FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49e78bb0-6ele-llel-baa5-00144feab49a.html> Pension funds lukewarm on UK 100 year bonds FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d5c5ff94- 6de3-11el-b9c7-00144feab49a.htmliaxzzlosmq6Ucr> FSA calls for radical action to prevent another crisis Daily Mail<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2115077/FSA-calls-radical-action-contain- shadow-banking-prevent-crisis.html> Youth unemployment at 22.5% in the UK Daily Mail<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/news/article-2114806/Unemployment-highest-1995-young- people-work.html> Tesco chief Brasher to step down after one year Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/retailandconsumer/9144742/Tescos- UK-chief-Richard-Brasher-to-step-down.html> Treasury Select Committee intervenes in derivatives mis-selling Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9144445/FSA-called- to-account-on-interest-rate-swap-concerns.html> Chairman of TSC proposes restructuring of bailed out bank bonuses The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3351888.ece> Osborne austerity buries 270k public sector jobs Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/14/osborne-austerity-270000-public- sector-jobs> UK to avoid double dip with debt fuelled recovery Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/mar/14/uk-debt-fuelled- recovery> Visa modernization urged to attract the middle class of Russia, China and India Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/relax-the-visa-rules-to-aid- tourism-and-growth-says-eu-chief-7572993.html> HTC likely to lose top rank in US 4G market DigiTimes<http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120314PD220.html> Key Events This Week EFTA00417994 Friday: S&P Quarterly Rebalance, Options Expiration, CPI, Industrial Production, Michigan Confidence ii.............. 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