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efta-efta01056125DOJ Data Set 9OtherFrom: "jeffrey E." <jeevacation®gmail.com>
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DOJ Data Set 9
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From: "jeffrey E." <jeevacation®gmail.com>
To: Harry Fisch
Subject: Fwd: company valuation
Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2017 18:55:51 +0000
Attachments: 2015_EXEC_SUMMARY_ENG_COMPLETE_20151104.pdf;
UPDATE_COMPANY_VALUE_AUGUST_2013.pdf
Forwarded message
From: Donald Rubin
Date: Thu, Dec 15, 2016 at 10:40 AM
Subject: Fwd: company valuation
To: "jeffrey E." <[email protected]>
Hi Jeffery,
Adriaan followed up after our skype call earlier this week with this email and attachments, which he hopes you
will find informative — I have no idea because this is not what I do!
On another topic, there is a chance that I'll be in NYC on 22 Dec before flying to Paris the next day with an XX.
Share a coffee?
Best, Don
Donald B. Rubin
John L. Loeb Professor of Statistics
Begin forwarded message:
From: Adriaan Tuiten <[email protected]>
Subject: company valuation
Date: December 15, 2016 at 8:41:11 AM EST
To: "Donald Rubin (
<
Dear Don,
As we spoke about the valuation of the company, I herewith send you the executive summary of the valuation
done by Prof. Roel Bellens of PIMS NV. This report dates from September 2015. As you will understand, this
information is very confidential. In short, the report mentions a number of events, that have a positive or
negative impact on the company value. There are a number of events, that are directly related to the
development of Lybrido and Lybridos, such as regularity progress with the FDA and the EMA, patent
EFTA01056125
extensions, etc. On the other hand there are events in the periphery of to company, that influence value of
Emotional Brain. A major event was the market approval for Flibanserin/Addyi and the acquisition of
Flibanserin to Valeant. The valuation of the EB shares from this valuation report was E 42.50 per share.
Since 2015 there are some developments in favor of the value and some developments that might reduce the
value. A very positive driver is the recent feedback by the FDA and the issued Guideline for Industry by the
FDA, giving Lybrido and Lybridos explicit advice to enter phase 3 and giving clear guidelines for achieving
market approval. A negative driver could be the fact that Addyi appears to fail in the market (however this was
not really a surprise for EB, given the safety warnings, the low efficacy and the high user-costs, approximately
800USD/month, of the product). These disadvantages do not occur with the use of Lybrido(s), but they still
might have a negative impact.
We estimate, that this positive and negative factors level out, and kept the share price at E 42,50. We are
checking this at the moment with Prof. Bellens. This price valuates the company at E 156m1n. Recent research
among 100 phase 2 pharmadeals show that dealvalues vary from USD 250 mln. (only milestones) to USD 750
mln. (only milestones). On top of that royalties varying from 12% to 22% of net sales, so we trust that this
value does not overestimates the value of EB. Moreover, at an earlier stage (2013) Roel Bellens also has
written a report on the possible proceeds in a deal. This revenues from upfront and milestones does not deviate
much from the aforementioned revenues (worst-case between 320 and 340 million dollars; best case: between
525 and 560 million dollars). In that report he made also an estimation of the revenue that could yield by
royalties over a period of about 12 years (between 2.5 billion and 6.9 billion dollars). In my humble view, these
estimates are positive and I am happy with a portion thereof. Moreover, the estimation of Prof. Bellens is based
on pre- and postmenopausal women. We will do out phase 3 research only in premenopausal women which will
reduce the royalty revenues somewhat (however pharmaceutical companies assume — I think - that there will be
off-label use by the postmenopausal women).
I hope you can use this information to attract investors, I enclosed the reports in order to check the summary I
made of the valuation. Again, the valuation reports are extremely confidential, so do not share them with
others.
Best Adriaan
EFTA01056126
please note
The information contained in this communication is
confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may
constitute inside information, and is intended only for
the use of the addressee. It is the property of
JEE
Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this
communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited
and may be unlawful. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by
return e-mail or by e-mail to [email protected], and
destroy this communication and all copies thereof,
including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved
EFTA01056127
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