From: Robert Trivers

From: Robert Trivers To: Jeffrey Epstein <[email protected]> Subject: Date: Sat, 17 Dec 2016 17:31:56 +0000 Attachments: Lamba&Nityananda2014.PDF Jeffrey great talking to you attached is a short, paradigmatic paper on just what you were talking about, variance around the mean in overconfidence read abstract, then go right to Figure 1, left hand side you will see that the more a person overrates themselves, others in their group will over-rate them—works in first week or (left side of Figure 1) six weeks later, but the effect is not 1:1 but below 1 to 1.3 Figure 2 appears to show that the more you overrate yourself the more easily you are deceived by others one thing to look out for which, trust me, social scientists almost never do, is that we are only dealing with correlations so cause-and-effect could easily run in the other direction—i note that others are over-rating me, so i join the fun i will look up the three business references since i have to lecture to 180 businessmen on all this in early January in Rochester i will be in touch with you ahead of time for the best place to meet in person, if at at all possible in the meanwhile, warmest best, as always bob EFTA01059158