Case File
efta-efta01078034DOJ Data Set 9OtherBREMNER
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Unknown
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DOJ Data Set 9
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efta-efta01078034
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BREMNER
CAP
I
TAL
MAMA
GEN/JEN T
EFTA01078034
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Chief Investment Officer
Team Organisational Chart
The Investment Philosophy
The Investment Process
Risk Management
Portfolio Construction
Proposed Fund Terms
Trade Examples
BREMNER
CAPI
TAL
MANAGEMENT
3
4
6
7
9
14
15
16
Confidential
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EFTA01078035
Executive Summary
Bremner Capital
Management
Background / Investment
Team
Investment Philosophy
Investment Strategy
Investment Objective
Alignment of Interests
Focus On Risk
Track Record
Terms
BREMNER
CAPI
TAL
MANAGEMENT
A global investment firm looking to generate alpha through the careful selection of opportunistic long/short
equity positions, formed on the basis of overarching macro views, and an emerging markets expertise
Founded by former Atticus Capital Partner Dr. Chris Bremner
Chris was the portfolio manager of the Atticus Emerging Markets Fund
Investment Team has been identified
Fundamental, thematic value-driven approach to stock selection after taking macro view
Dual analysis fosters opportunistic investing; adopting both top-down and bottom-up approaches to maximize
return.
Setting risk guidelines and managing risk holistically
Global fund that will opportunistically allocate
Top-down thematic approach, identifying areas of significant economic/social change to identify compelling and
actionable investment themes. Bottom up analysis to pick 30-80 optimal stocks (liquid market large-caps) to play
these themes
To generate superior, sustainable, risk-adjusted, absolute returns through equity and equity derivative products
Targeting 25% returns over the cycle, with a volatility of 12-14%
Partners contributing significant day one capital to the fund
Risk management, allignment of interest and capital preservation are integral to, and drive, the Firm's
investment approach. Bremner Capital Management will implement a Triple Risk Overlay.
Portable track record from Atticus Emerging Markets Fund (June 2003 to December 2008)
Annualized +16.8% net over the cycle, with a volatility of 12%
Lower fees, allignment of interest, special Phoenix share class, dividend and non-dividend class of shares, hurdle
rate - LIBOR + 300bps
Confidential
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EFTA01078036
Chief Investment Officer
Dr Chris Bremner
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Dr Bremner has over 20 years of experience investing in Emerging and Developed Markets as a portfolio
manager.
Dr Bremner's previous professional experiences include serving as:
•Portfolio Manager of Atticus Emerging Markets fund, Ltd since its formation in June 2003 to December 2008
•Managing accounts for a number of well known hedge funds based in New York as third-party manager from
1998 to 2002
•Serving as Chief Investment Officer of Oppenheimer (Bermuda) Ltd from 1994 to 1998
•Managing funds for Bankers Trust Australia Ltd from 1988 to 1994
Dr Bremner holds a medical degree from the University of New South Wales and is a private investor with
passive non-controlling interests in a biotechnology company specialized in RNDNA interference and an
engineering company specialized in magnetic technology. Dr Bremner has consulted a number of
governmental organizations in the field of quantum physics and artificial intelligence throughout his career
and is an active philanthropist in the fields of medicine and science.
Confidential
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EFTA01078037
Team Organisational Chart
Dr Chris Bremner
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
• Drives and oversees the investment process
• Manages the portfolio
- Sets risk guidelines and manages risk
holistically
- Ensures portfolio remains consistent with
investment philosophy
Efthymia Tsotsani
-Financials, Telecoms
Investment Team
Analyst
-Energy, Utilities
1
Brian Way
Trader
Business Management Team
perations Manager
Tancredi Marchicdo
Investor Relations
Vaiva Martinonyte
Confidential
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EFTA01078038
The Investment Philosophy
BREMNER
rAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
A rigorous, fundamental, value-driven investment approach to stock selection after taking macro view
Relative Likelihood World-View
We will avoid anchoring to a single
macro outcome, and will continually
adjust our stock selection, exposure
and risk levels based on a relative
likelihood framework, taking
consideration of what is 'priced in'
relative to our views
Thematic
Macro Analysis
Flexibe
Flexible Mandate
Our fundamental long and short portfolios
will range across industries and themes,
utilising the investment expertise of our
team and enabling us to pursue
inefficiencies globally
Value-Driven Approach
Fundamental value-driven
approach to stock selection
after taking a macro view,
applied equally to longs and
shorts
Value-
Driven
Global Equity
VS with EM
expertise
Opportunistic
Opportunistic
Bottom-up analysis seeks
best way to implement
views opportunistically
across developed and
developing markets
Stock Selection
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EFTA01078039
Investment Process — Macro Idea Generation
Top Down Thematics
Macro View
Sector View
10-20 Actionable Themes
•
TOP DOWN THEMATICS
Research and identify 10 — 20 compelling and actionable investment themes
Fundamental Analysis
30-80 Stocks
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
MACRO VIEW - research & identify global macro themes
Key Input: Established and proven global network of industry leaders, politicians, bankers, and suppliers
Risk Management
• Pragmatic risk management
approach
• Continual re-assessment of
data/market versus our
investment themes
Analysis of Money Supply raw data through independent valuation models, disregarding common broad money supply measures. Use of:
• Net bank lending
• Implications of velocity on money
Subsequent effects on net credit creation, timing lag, and reflection on asset price trends
SECTOR VIEW — research & identify areas of significant structural change
Key Input: Use extensive and well developed global network of contacts to identify changes and shifts in economies, markets, industries,
demand structures, and supply chains
• Regulatory: Sector specific changes, updates, changes in focus, precedents
• Technological: Developments, new trends, updates, omissions, failures
• Industry Specific
• Political: Change in governments, policies, views, public opinion, current/capital account and relationship with industries
• Demographic: Migrating populations, birth/death rates, demand structures
Confidential
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EFTA01078040
Investment Process — Fundamental Stock Analysis
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Macro View
Top Down Thematics
10-20 Actionable Themes
Sector View
r
Fundamen al Analysis
Risk Management
• Pragmatic risk management
approach
•
• Continual re-assessment of
data/market versus our
Stocks
30-80
investment themes
BOTTOM UP ANALYSIS - FILTERING THE UNIVERSE
Search for 30-80 optimal stocks to play the themes in the most simple and
liquid way
Use of bottom up fundamental analysis to look at stocks with a long term
perspective, to identify stocks that will be most sensitive to the themes
identified as a result of the macro and sector analyses, independent of short
term market dynamics
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Established team of portfolio manger and analysts with sector specialization,
and core skills in fundamental analysis.
• Industry Experts — established and proven global network among industry
thought leaders, politicians, bankers, suppliers
• Corporate Access — collaborative management relationships have been
developed over many years of covering companies
• Financial Modelling — business drivers, income statement, cash flow
statement, balance sheet. Emphasis on cash flow and balance sheet
• Street Research — gauge consensus, source financial data
VALUE INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY - valuation indicators used
• Intrinsic Value: Calculation of intrinsic value for a security
based on discounted free cash flow formulation. Looking to
purchase stock at significant margin of safety discount to this
fair value
• Extrapolation of the dividend discount model
• Cash flow multiple. Look for low:
- Price/Cash Flow
- EV/EBITDA
• Focus on balance sheet assets. Look for low:
- Price/ Book Value
- EV / Invested Capital
• Earnings. Look for low:
- P/E
- P/E / Growth
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EFTA01078041
Investment Process — Risk Management
BREMNER
CAPITAL
Risk Management
• Pragmatic risk management
approach
• Continual re-assessment of
data/market versus our
investment themes
Names enter the portfolio at the
discretion of the CIO and are sized
according to:
• Conviction levels
• Risk/reward analysis
• Liquidity, ability to exit
• Inherent risk or volatility of stock
• Within the boundaries of the
portfolio limits outlined overleaf
MANAGEMENT
Risk management is a core ethos of Bremner Capital Management, and consequently every member
is tasked with managing and monitoring risks at all times
Real-time assessment of key risk parameters (factor risks, fund leverage, position correlation, and
foreign exchange exposure) to ensure that these parameters remain within portfolio limits
Portfolio Construction
Gross
Exposure
Max 300% / Typical
130%
Net
Exposure
Max 150% / Typical
+65%
Limit:
Sector
Max 30% in any one
sector
Limit: Top
Ten
Names
Max 50% of NAV
The COO performs the role of Chief Risk Officer (CROI
• The COO is tasked with monitoring and reporting
risk limits to the CIO on daily basis
• The COO presents all positions to the CIO on a
weekly basis, highlighting any risk limits that are being
approached
• The COO reports to the board on a ongoing basis,
any breaches of risk limits, and how these breaches
were managed
Post-Trade
Analytics
Reporting/Monitoring
RISK / REWARD ANALYSIS
• This is the appropriate metric to appraise the risk / return profile of each individual
position — maintained and reviewed on a continuous basis for each position
RISK
• Downside risk from current security price to downside protection
• Downside protection can be ascertained, for example by strong technical support
levels on the stock price chart, or compelling value on a fundamental basis
REWARD
• The upside from current security price to target price, derived from fundamental
analysis of intrinsic fair value. Fair value periodically reviewed, as good quality
companies increase intrinsic value over time
CORRELATION
• The extent to which positions vary together and are correlated will be monitored
using Prime Brokerage risk reports and a Barra risk framework to track factor risks and
potential correlations
• For new positions, correlation with the existing portfolio is determined before
adding the position to the portfolio. Reduction in overall portfolio correlation is
desirable as risk is reduced
Confidential
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EFTA01078042
Investment Process — Risk Management
BRENINER
CAP
ITAL
MANJAGEIVIENT
RISK REPORTING - kc i." SRL ( ,Lopat
Bremner Capitol Management will implement a full transparency approach using an innovative reporting/monitoring tool
•
Increase transparency and oversight with intelligent alerts
,/
Compliance and style drift monitoring
,/
Investment concentration monitoring
,/
Adherence to investment management guidelines
,/
Investment exposure, monitoring and extreme market scenario
analysis
•
Tighten operational processes
Shadow valuation across all investments, both in-house and third-
party for daily NAV (estimation)
Fund allocation transaction management and bookings rebalance and
cash flow forecast
•
Decision support
What-if analysis
Factor sensitivity analysis
/Sensitivity analysis , identify main risk contributors
to risk
/Factor decomposition and VaR, R2 for overall fit
/Scenario analysis and stress test (empirical and
factor)
/Risk decomposition: marginal VaR and component
VaR
/Empirical VaR - VaR, modified VaR. CVaR (expected
shortfall)
/Factor VaR - VaR, modified VaR. CVaR (expected
shortfall)
/Proxy portfolios and fund replication with daily
pricing
/Position risk calculations (greeks)
/FX exposure monitoring
/Position and trade level information
/Fully integrated and interactive reporting engine
(webripad)
Confidential
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EFTA01078043
Investment Process — Risk Management
Risk Management
• Pragmatic risk management
approach
• Continual re-assessment of
data/market versus our
investment themes
Managing Entry/Exit points of trade
Adjust portfolio to have highest conviction and best risk/reward positions as largest in the portfolio
MACRO — Trade entry/exit points are assessed based on the macro environment
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Thesis: The extent of monetary stimulus, especially the rate of change of the money supply, impacts financial asset prices, typically with a lag of
6-9 months.
Strategy: Use purchased third party data (central banks (money supply, quantitative easing), net bank lending, movement in current account) to
forecast the rate of change of the money supply. Use of rd order derivatives.
Objective: To develop a monthly risk-on/risk-off indicator to use in both sizing trades, and timing of entry and exit points
MICRO
Entry:
• Entry price — to offer significant margin of safety upside to intrinsic value target price established as a result of fundamental analysis
• Time horizon
• Catalyst
• Upside / Downside Analysis
• Conviction
Exit:
• Hits Price Target
• Thesis Changed
• Better Alternative Investment
• Stop Loss
- Stock Level — Dynamic adjustment according to trading conditions and external environment
- Book Level — maximum loss on individual position: 7% of AUM
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EFTA01078044
Investment Process — Risk Management
Dynamic Stop Losses
Non — Variable
Factors
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
• Portfolio! Hard Stop - Losses
• Triple Risk Overlay
Variable Factors -
likelihood of change on individual position stop losses
External Environment
Money
supply
Interest
rates
Legislation
Total Score = 2
Technology
2
Internal Environment
Liquidity
3
Price
targets
Correlation
Value
indicators
Total Score = 2,5
Confidential
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EFTA01078045
Expected
Normal Inflation
Investment Process — Risk Management
Uncertain Market Outlook
2013 - 2014 Scenario
BREMNER
CAP
I
TAL
MANAGEMENT
Impact on asset classes:
Equities t *
Commodities
Bonds t
Real Estate
At a
Credit
• Consumption stabilises at average levels, unemployment comes down, real estate stabilises in developed markets
• Monetary policy becomes gradually more restricted
• Diminishing marginal effect of any future QE
• IR reversal
•Liquidity trap
Confidential
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EFTA01078046
Portfolio Construction
Typical Gross Exposure
Typical Net Exposure
Asset Class Exposure
Longs
Shorts
Geography
Concentration
Stop-loss triggers
Typical Holding Period
Liquidity
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Typically 130%, max 300%. Adjusted for market conditions
Typically +65%, max 150%
Equities (cash, swap, indices)
Derivatives: All vanilla (swaps, futures, options)
SO longs (Position limit at initiation, no more than 10% of NAV)
Typical position size: 2-3% of NAV
Maximum position size 7% NAV
Average holding period: 12 months
30 shorts (Position limit at initiation, no more than 5% of NAV)
Typical position size: 1-2% of NAV
Maximum position size 5% NAV
Average holding period 6 months
Global, opportunistic portfolio positioning in developed and emerging markets with a particular focus on larger,
liquid names
10 — 20 themes, expressed in 30— 80 names. All liquid, large cap listed stocks
Sector: Max 30% in any one sector
Top Ten Names: Max S0% of NAV
Dynamic adjustment according to trading conditions and external environment
Max 7% of AUM
12 months
Exit 60% of portfolio within one trading session, 90% within 5 trading sessions, remaining 10% within 5 days
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EFTA01078047
Proposed Fund Terms
Inception Date
Redemption Frequency
Notice Period
Gates / Lock-Ups
Management Fee
Incentive Fee
High-water Mark
Hurdle Rate
Prime Broker
Legal
Fund Administrator
Fund Auditor
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Expected in Q2 2013
TBD
30 days
No
Founders: 1.25%
Main: 1.50%
• Phoenix: TBD
Founders: 15%
Main: 20%
• Phoenix: TBD
Yes
LIBOR + 300bps
Goldman Sachs, UBS
Schulte, Roth & Zabel
IFS
Ernst & Young
• Phoenix Shore [kiss only ovoilabk
ex-Atticus investors, respecting their 11WM
Confidential
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EFTA01078048
Trade Example
Long Generali, Short Unicredit
GRAB
BEE
f9 Save As
Ile Actions -
Edit
98 Table
03/01/2011
10
3D
11 al
'ITO
1Y
SI
Max Daly •
11/27/2012
111Compate
'1. .
Pa-
'3.48S
Sectrity/Study
Line Chart
M t.c•,:
Last Price
■G IM Equity
12.61
• LKG Ill Equity 3.488
■G IM Equity - Volume 3.131M
1•511AVG (15)
4.92314
'"lev.
IA
Sep
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sec
2011
2012
Auatrolia Cl 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000
Japan 81 3 3201 8900
Singapore 65 6212 1000
U.S. 1 212 318 2000
Copyright 2012 Bloomberg Finance L.P.
SH 783155 H645-4774-0 27-Hbv-12 15.40.28 GMT WIT.0.00
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Macro: Secure financing vs unstable
deposit base.
Description: Generali is adequately
capitalised being an insurance co.
Unicredit has been recapitalised 3 times
since 2008.
Entry Rationale: Governance change at
Generali. Unicredit has a large book of
defaulting loans and shrinking Eastern
European operations.
Entry Date: lune 2012 @ 8.5.
Target Price: 22.
Confidential
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EFTA01078049
Trade Example
Long Airports of Thailand
GRAB
LOT TE Equit
10/03/2011
1D
3D
iM
6M
YTD
99 Save As
9
nA
i
ons
9$ Table
11/27/2012
•Last Price
1
90.25
T High on 11/26/12 90.50
-9-Average
59.14
I. Low on 11/07/11 35.75
TMIMuni.
233014
•5
VG (Is) 3.30214
Last Pnce
1Y
SY
Flax Day •
LiniChart
Line
111COMpare
Nov. lingo> „srunty
,"jc,
Event
O
TIC "I
t2
M
CBI
Volume
•
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
2012
Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000
Japer, 81 3 3201 8900
Singapore 65 6212 1000
U.S. 1 212 318 2000
Copyright 2012 Bloomberg Finance L.P.
SN 783155 H645-4774-0 27-Nov-12 18.44, 28 GMT CIIT40:00
em0
-so
9-40
-
r
Jut
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nav
BREMNER
C APITAL
MANAGEMENT
Macro: Changing Government and
regulation.
Description: Airports of Thailand ore
experiencing high passenger volume
and hove been offering discounted
landing fees for Thai Air since 2008.
Entry Rationale: Discount rote for Thoi
Air is currently rolling off combined with
60% volume growth over the last 4
years.
Entry Date: March 2012 @ 52.
Target Price: 110.
Confidential
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EFTA01078050
Trade Example
Long Pfizer
GRAB
PFE Uti Noir:,
03/01/2012
1D
30
1M
99 Save As
90 Pth6ns -
11/27/2012
64
YTD
1Y
LastPdce
La
last Price
24.3599
T High on 1048/12 26.035
+-Average
23.3141
/ low on 03/06/12 21.265
5Y
IR Line
Max Daly V
97/ Edit
•
11)Compart
98I Table
Min
•
ftf: Security/Stu:1y
Line Chart
IR use PR
Event
Volume
O
y•Volume
6.1B3M
9411% (15) 30.43114
I
.
iliiiii
ig;im7ri
Mar
ter
May
Jun
AA
Mm
Sep
Oct
Nov
2012
Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong e52 2977 6000
Japan 81 3 3201 8900
Singapore 65 6212 1000
U.S. 1 212 318 2000
Copyright 2012 Bloomberg Finance L.P.
SN 783155 M645-4774-0 27-Nov-I2 15.45.08 GMT GMT+0.00
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Macro: Industry has undergone a
rationalisation of its cost structure.
Description: Currently trading at 10.2x
earnings and should be trading at 20x.
Entry Rationale: Pfizer hos closed non-
performing divisions and acquired
competitors to counter the effect of
accelerating potent expiries — allowing
the earning momentum in worst case
scenario environment.
Entry Date: March 2012 @ 22.
Target Price: 60.
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EFTA01078051
Trade Example
Short Apple
GRAB
ALPL US Equit,
09/04/ 2012
1D
3D
1H
611
YTD
99 Save As
90 Actions -
9n Edit -
9$ Table
11/27/2012 Last Price
lY
PI one
PI
5Y
Max Daily •
INConpdte
Line Chart
MIIMM
Volume
r USD Pl
11 Event
0
Security/Study
1
• Last Price
586.199
T High on 09/19/12 702.10
`I'
-0-Average
627.147
1 Low on 11/15/12 525.62
0'650
TM6Murne
12.621H
Ili bIIll
Sep 7
Sep 14
Ser) 21
Sep 28
belt 8
Oa 1t
Oct 23
Oct 31
2012
Australia 61 2 9777 8600 BrazIl 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000
Japan 81 3 3201 8900
Singapore 65 6212 1000
U.S. 1 212 318 2030
Copyright 2012 Bloomberg Finance L.P.
SN 783155 11645-4774-0 27-Nov-12 18.42 38 GM' GPIT+0.00
•51,4AvG (15) 23 41361
•-600
Nov 8
Nov 15
BREMNER
CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT
Macro: Unsustainable market share
within a growing technology sector.
Description: Too reliant on 3r° party
technology — recent patent disputes.
Current operating morgins are
unsustainable.
Entry Rationale: Chonge in leadership.
Lacklustre product launch. Excessive
market capitalisation.
Entry Date: September 2012 @ 660.
Target Price: 4S0.
Confidential
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EFTA01078052
Disclaimer
BREMNER
CAP
I
TAL
MANAGEMENT
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
This presentation has been prepared solely for the purpose of providing background information to the person/persons to whom it has been
delivered. The information contained herein is strictly confidential and is only for the use of the person/persons to whom it is sent and/or who attend
any associated presentation. The information contained herein may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. The
distribution of this document may be restricted in certain jurisdictions. The information herein is for general guidance only, and it is the responsibility of
any person or persons in possession of this document to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant
Jurisdiction. The summary description included herein and any other materials provided to you are intended only for information purposes and
convenient reference and are not intended to be complete. This information is not intended to provide and should not be relied upon for accounting,
legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. You should consult your tax, legal, accounting or other advisors about the issues discussed herein.
Material terms of the Fund are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This document is not intended as an offer or
solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. This document is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any
jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. In particular this document is not intended for
distribution in the United States or for the account of U.S. persons (as defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as
amended the "Securities Act")) except to persons who are "qualified purchasers" (as defined in the United States Investment Company Act of 1940, as
amended (the "Company Act")) and accredited investors" (as defined in Rule 501(a) under the Securities Act). As of the date of this document
"Bremner Capital Management" does not yet constitute a registered or legal entity. As of the date of this document "Bremner Capital Management" is
not yet authorised or regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority. No reliance may be placed for any purpose on the information and opinions
contained in this document or their accuracy or completeness. No representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the
accuracy or completeness of the Information or opinions contained in this document by anyone, and no liability is accepted by such persons for the
accuracy or completeness of any such information or opinions, and nothing contained herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation
whether as to past or future performance.
Confidential
I
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EFTA01078053
Technical Artifacts (12)
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Phone
1 212 318 2000Phone
1 212 318 2030Phone
1645-4774Phone
212 1000Phone
330 7500Phone
511 3048Phone
645-4774Phone
777 8600Phone
852 2977Phone
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