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efta-efta01101193DOJ Data Set 9OtherAPOLLO
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APOLLO
Elysium Re Investment Overview
June 2014
EFTA01101193
Table of Contents
1. Overview of Elysium Re
2. Business Plan Overview
3. Investment Portfolio & Rating Agency Overview
4. Key Next Steps
EFTA01101194
A p O L [. O
Overview of Elysium Re
EFTA01101195
APOLLO
Elysium Re Business Model Overview
Elysium Re will establish itself with $750-1,000 million of capital
—
50% in cash, 50% in other equity capital (existing assets such as Apollo stock, fund positions, other cash flowing assets)
On this capital base, Elysium Re will then write $300-500 of premium per year (in a conservative base case model)
—
Premium will be written in a variety of different property and casualty lines - opportunistic areas where rates are hardening and pricing is attractive
Elysium Re will then earn a -9-10% annual investment yield on these assets — both the equity capital and the income on the premium written
—
Equity capital invested in alternatives earning —10-15%
Premium income invested in a diverse mix of liquid credit, real estate, and structured securities earning —3-5%
Over time Elysium Re will incur losses on the premium its writes at an estimated 50-60%of premium written —known as the loss ratio"
—
These incurred losses will not all actually be paid out when incurred, but rather over the course of 2-3 years from the time of being incurred
Elysium Re will also absorb additional brokerage and SG&A expenses associated with the writing of premium and the managing of claims and day-to day business
operations
Brokerage costs of -20-25% of premium written — known as "acquisition or brokerage ratio"
Other SG&A costs of -10% of premium written — known as "SG&A or cost ratio"
To the extent that its combined ratio — the sum of the loss ratio, the brokerage ratio, and the cost ratio — is less than 100%, Elysium Re will generate additional
earnings from underwriting income — as it will effectively be borrowing money at a negative costs of funds where the underwriting cash flows received are
greater than underwriting cash flows paid out
Elysium Re will thus generate value from several different sources
—
Return on invested capital
—
Underwriting income / Negative cost of funds
•
Best-in class underwriting with targeted loss ratio of 50-60% of premium written
•
Operating structures with combined brokerage and SG&A costs of 30-35% of premium written
-
Return on float ( float is the time between which an insurance policy is written and when it is paid out)
EFTA01101196
APOLLO
Elysium Re Business Model Overview (Cont'd)
> Elysium Re will try to combine the twin principles of value underwriting and value investing, that seeks the best value opportunities available
on both sides of the balance sheet
-
Value Underwriting: Hire a management team that underwrites based on a value-oriented, "margin-of-safety" approach across a variety of
property and casualty business lines and that can consistently produce overall combined ratios below 100% - generating leverage with a
negative cost of funds
•
Opportunistic liability sourcing in a broad range of property and casualty businesses, with a focus on more flexible and price-attractive
E&S / non-admitted business
-
Value Investing: Hire Apollo/Athene (or another leading asset manager) with a proven track record of outperformance and a diversified and
broad investing platform in liquid credit
-
Opportunities on Both Sides of Balance Sheet: Elysium Re will seek the best value opportunities on both the asset and liability sides of the
balance sheet.
> Elysium Re will be further complemented by additional operating and structural enhancements
-
Non-Correlated Risk: Property and casualty insurance is a non-correlated source of value that is not heavily exposed to capital market based
volatility
-
Clean Balance Sheet: De novo structure with no exposure to harmful legacy investments or liabilities
-
Broker-Based Operating Model: Broker-focused operating model that allows management to pursue its strategy with fewer employees and less
fixed costs
-
Tax & Regulatory Efficient Structure: Elysium Re will be [domiciled as a Caymans / Bermuda entity, allowing it further enhance returns
through tax and regulatory optimization]
> Elysium Re will target an A- financial strength rating from A.M. Best in line with other highly capitalized and well-respected property and casualty
insurers and reinsurers
—
Rating underpinned by a diversified book of business and by rigorous stress testing on both sides of the balance sheet
EFTA01101197
APOLLO
P&C Liability Funding: Negative Cost of Funds
A key aspect of the investment thesis is producing underwriting income and thereby a negative cost of funds
— Combined ratio / cost of funds will vary by line of business, but Elysium Re will target a -90% combined ratio over 3-5 years,
which equates to a - (10)% cost of funds
If the combined ratio of the premium written is below 100% (negative cost of funds), Elysium Re can earn even more significant
profits by earning on both sides of the balance sheet
$ in millions
Key Assumptions
Initial Premiwn Written
Life of Liabilities
Loss Ratio
Brokerage Ratio
SO&A
$ 250
4.00
55%
25%
10%
Combined
Ratio
90%
Annual Pay-Out (Premium/ WAL)
34
Year
Year
Year
Year
Cash Cost of Funds Projections (0-3)
0
1
2
3
Premium Written
$ 250 $ 250 $ 250 $ 250
Brokerage Costs
(63)
(63)
(63)
(63)
Other SG&A Costs
(25)
(25)
(25)
(25)
Losses & Loss Adjustment Expense
(34)
(69)
(103)
(138)
Total Underwriting Cash Flows
$ 128 $ 94 $ 59 $ 25
Year
Year
Year
Year
Cash Cost of Funds Projections (4-7)
4
5
6
7
Total
Premium Written
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ -
$ 1,000
Brokerage Costs
(250)
Other SG&A Costs
(100)
Losses & Loss Adjustment Expense
(103)
(69)
(34)
(550)
Total Underwriting Cash Flows
$(103) $ (69) $ (34)
$
100
Cost of Ftuxts
EFTA01101198
APOLLO
P&C Liability Funding: Float Generation
•
Elysium Re will utilize the concept of float to generate consistent liability funding with a relatively long WAL
•
Float is the time between which an insurance policy is written and when it is paid out
—
Float will vary by line of business, but Elysium Re will target 3-5 years of WAL on its liabilities, resulting in -$400 million of run-rate
float
•
By utilizing float, Elysium Re can efficiently finance its investments
•
Even when the combined ratio of the premium written is 100% (i.e. 0% cost of funds) or above 100% (positive cost of funds), Elysium Re can still
earn significant profits just by earning a higher yield on its invested assets
$ in millions
Key Assumptions
Initial Prenium Written
$ 250
Life of Liabilities
4.00
Investment Yield
10%
Combined
Loss Ratio
65%
Ratio
Brokerage Ratio
25%
SG&A
10%
100%
Premium, Related to Policyholder Pay-Out
$ 163
Annual Pay-Out (Premium / WAL)
41
Year
Year
Year
Year
0
1
2
3
Float Waterfall Projections
$ 163 S 122 $
81 $
41
163
122
81
163
122
163
Total Float
$ 163 $ 284 $ 366 $ 406
Cash Flow Projections
BoP Cash
$ 163 $ 301 $ 405
Plus: Float Generation / (Reduction)
122
81
41
Plus: Investment Income Generated on Float
16
23
35
EoP Cash
$ 163 $ 301 $ 405 $ 481
Run-Rate Float From Prenium
-$400
% of Initial Premium Written
160%
Cost of Funds
0%
Annual Run-Rate Profit on Float
$
40
EFTA01101199
APOLLO
P&G Re: Illustrative High-Level Business Projections
D Elysium Re will generate value from three core value sources
—
Underwriting income / negative costs of funds
—
Return on float
—
Return on invested capital
D This business model enables Elysium Re to be both a spread lender at a negative cost of funds and an efficient user of float arbitrage
Underwriting Brom / Negative
Cost of Funds at 90% Combined
Rath
Return on Float With 4 Year Life of Liabilities dial
10% Investment Ykld
Premium Written / Equity
Leverage on $1 Bilkm
Capital Base
Premium Written
Prolit
ROI1 Impact
I:k)a1
11:.)(11
Imp.1.1
Overall ROE With 10%
Return on Invested Capital
a
0.25x
$250
S, 5
S400
S40
4.0'
16.5
0.50x
500
5.115
S00
SO
8.01i
23.01I
0.75x
75(1
75
7.5%
1.200
120
12.0%
29.51I
1.00x
1.000
100
10.0(i
1.600
160
16.0rc
36.0'I
EFTA01101200
APOLLO
Fixed Annuity (Re) Insurance vs. P&C (Re) Insurance: Comparative Overview
Fixed Annuity (Re) Insurance
Underwriting Leverage
11-15x assets / equity
P&C (Re) Insurance
Varied: key ratios include assets / equity (2-3x) and
premiums written / avg. equity (0.1-1.0x)
WAL of Liabilities
5-10 years
1-3 years for property catastrophe: 4-6 years for
commercial / liability
Cost of Funds
- 4-8% depending on crediting rate and policyholder
behavior
Vanes depending on line of business and underwriting ability
(combined ratio): can range from (25%) to 10%
Depends on i.) average life of liabilities and ii.) focus on
Investment Yield
5-7%
asset vs. liability risk: focus on asset performance (10.15%)
vs. underwriting performance (2-7%)
Investment Flexibility
Longer WAL, less liquid assets permitted: More regulatory
oversight on investments. Greater focus on ALM
Shorter 'NAL. need more liquidity: Less regulatory
ovens -ant on nvestmerts: Less oorre!ation between assets &
liabilities
Regulation
Pnmanly focused on assets
Pnmanly focused on liabilities and asset liquidity: Need A-
rating to compete
Compemior Le :e
Low
Medium to High
Business Model
Spread Lending
Float Arbitrage I Spread Lending / P&C Underwriting
Primary Liability Sourcing
Ceitiants
brokers
Key Risks
Longevity. Rate
Underwriting. Asset Performance
EFTA01101201
APOLLO
Elysium Re Structure
Elysium Re would ideally be set up as an entity that could both fund its own operations, as well as produce additional
cash flow for investments unrelated to Elysium Re's business
Elysium Holding Co.
Elysian Non-Insurance
Elysian Non-Insurance
Elysian Non-Insurance
Elysium Re Holding Co.
Investment #1
Investment #2
Investment #3
(Bermuda / Caymans)
Athene Asset
Management or
Other Asset Manager
Investment Management Agreement
Elysium Re Insurance Co.
(Bermuda / Caymans)
Can retain cash at
insurance HoldCo or
dividend up to non-
insurance HoldCo for
funding of other non-
insurance investments
Can retain cash flow
at insurance OpCo or
dividend up to
insurance HoldCo
Insurance company planning to write 53004500 million
of annual premium with a \VAL of 3-5 years
EFTA01101202
APOLLO
Business Plan Overview
EFTA01101203
APOLLO
Overview of Business Plan: Overall Approach
Will need to hire a full management team with significant insurance experience to run general business and underwriting operations
— Outsource asset management to AAM or another third-party asset manager
Value on both sides of balance sheet — value underwriting and value investing
—
Assets and liabilities will compete for capital; depending on market dynamics, either investing or underwriting could be the business's
value driver — and capital allocation will shift as environments change
—
A- rating with at least $750 million of starting capital
Operations will based on a broker-focused model — less reliance on direct model
—
Lean operating team that concentrates primarily on underwriting and utilizes extensive broker networks to minimize agency-based
fixed costs
— Layer of distance between customer and P&C Re (e.g. Munich Re, Swiss Re) — makes it easier to "say no"
— Greater flexibility to be opportunistic and move in and out of different markets as pricing environments shift
Flexibility with regard to underwriting structures, lines of business, and geographies
• Open to any opportunities as long as they offer attractive risk / reward and a sufficient "margin of safety"
• Collateralized and non-collateralized structures (mostly non-collateralized at first)
Focus more on E&S and non-admitted business where regulation is less strict and rates are more fluid
—
Prefer to stay away from the admitted business / commodity products
— Don't want to take on large balance sheets (i.e. Travelers, ACE); rather, looking to take advantage of the niches
10
EFTA01101204
APOLLO
Overview of Business Plan: Overall Approach (Cont'd)
Underwriting will target an overall combined ratio of 80-90%
-
- 50% loss ratio with a standard deviation of 20-30%
• Large upside, but significant "margin of safety" provides downside protection
• Concept of "present value of combined ratio" key determinant of underwriting and development of float
• Finding the right team of disciplined, but risk tolerant underwriters in crucial
-
20-30% expense ratio trending downwards as business matures
•
Additional OpEx expenses upfront to hire good talent and invest in right underwriting systems
— Compensation structure should be based on return on equity / profits, not premium volume
•
Broker-focused model minimizes fixed costs and will be key driver for expense optimization
•
Broker-focused model makes it much easier to move in and out of the markets with brokers than direct model...but must be
prudent with broker relationships (who hold a lot of power inherently with their distribution networks)
— Put limits on (in hard and soft markets), so business isn't moving brokers around all the time and can build some credibility
• Migrate out over time when markets soften and new entrants enter
• Migrate in when markets harden and favorable supply / demand dynamic develops (easier to get data requests from
brokers because they need you more)
• Team should also establish a rigorous risk management function
— Chief Risk Officer / Chief Actuary
— AM Best BCAR maintenance and analysis — including key focus on a diversified book
— Oversight from Black Family / Elysium Partners
11
EFTA01101205
APOLLO
Overview of Business Plan: Organizational Straw Man
Organization needs to be driven by a culture of underwriting sophistication and by an opportunistic mindset
Broker-focused model that help minimize fixed costs and allows core team to focus on underwriting with most back-office functions
being outsourced
Compensation structure will be based on return on equity / profits, not premium volume
Especially for top underwriters, may consider paying more per person for top talent, but fewer overall employees (12-15 people initially)
-
Estimate -$11 million of starting compensation expenses
Post initial upfront costs for systems, target a mid to low 20's expense ratio — in line with the better peer comparables (like Ren Re)
CEO
I
COO/CFO
Accounting /
Risk Officer
Accounting
Officer
IT Officers
(1-2 people)
Underwriting team
(3-4 people)
Claims Officer I
General Counsel
12
EFTA01101206
Overview of Business Plan: Lines of Business
•
Underwriting will target an overall combined ratio of 80-90% with a 20-30% standard deviation on loss ratio
> Diverse business mix so that overall volatility is mitigated
> Will need to develop an updated detailed block by block business plan with management that balances risk level, type of insurance, duration
of claims, and frequency & severity of claims
•
For sample reference, attractive opportunities that existed in the market when AGM explored P&C Re 18 months ago included:
-
Property CAT
•
Direct Reinsurance in the US: Focus on more super regional writers, including substantial exposure to Florida stand alone companies
•
Direct Reinsurance ex-US: Focus on areas that have suffered losses in 2011 and 2010 and for which rates have not come down that
significantly (yet). Book will be heavily targeted to Japan, Australia, NZ and Caribbean
•
Retrocessional Treaties: Focus on more bespoke treaties where exposure is being curtailed by the client or where a client sustained a loss in
2011. The attachment point would be at a relatively significant level for outside-the-US events to avoid small 'nuisance' cats
-
Mortgage Insurance
•
Significant opportunities to write quota shares for distressed US based monoline companies and some non-US treaties
-
Crop and MPCI
•
The poor experience of 2012 should open up opportunities for any entrant. A combination of quota share and XOL, at the lower attachment
points is where management team would look to write business
—
Specialty Casualty lines
•
Some quality high excess D&O insurance providers, select few D&O/E&O middle markets programs and more unique lines (e.g.
Environmental Liability) will be considered. There is some rate increase in the sector and the best way to participate will be side-by-side
with clients, on a quota share basis
—
Terror, Political Risk and War
•
Smaller niche markets that allow some value-added underwriting; typically these are London based product lines
13
EFTA01101207
APOLLO
Overview of Business Plan: Lines of Business (Cont'd)
Previous plan with AGM contemplated a flexible approach with a focus on traditional reinsurance and insurance
There could be attractive additional growth opportunities to explore, once the base business has been fully established
— Additional potential opportunity in alternative, more bespoke structures include:
• Legacy run-off blocks
— Estimated European Non-Life run-off market is currently more than $200 billion
— Key opportunities in asbestos trusts and related ailment XOL treaties (i.e. Mesothelioma)
— Deals in this segment are hard to predict, model and plan for. Estimate that a few large transactions can be done over the
next 4 to 5 years — their occurrence will be unpredictable. Expertise in the segment is key in identifying opportunities and
there are only a few players in the segment (including an existing Apollo investment in Catalina) - expertise is a high barrier
to entry
• Third party P&C asset management (i.e. sidecars)
— The market for "alternative capital" has clearly evolved significantly in recent years
— Over the last 5 years, most traditional rated reinsurers that have tried to build third party managed funds have been wholly
unsuccessful (Ren Re is the one exception). We believe that having both a rated vehicle and un-rated vehicle from the outset
will provide P&C Re with a significant advantage
• Non-annuity life insurance products
— Simple products like term and whole life insurance with fixed liability structure, and which don't compete with Athene
— Would likely require significant additional cost in terms of infrastructure and separate team of life insurance underwriters
14
EFTA01101208
APOLLO
Overview of Business Plan: Operating Expenses
Upfront non-compensation operating expenses of -$10 million
—$1 million in spend on CAT modeling technology and analytics
—$9 million in other operating expenses
— $2 million for information & technology (very important to have best-in-class systems)
— $1 million to outsource back-office functions
— $3-4 million in T&E, other office operations, and taxes
— $2 million in general other (cushion for start-up costs of business)
($ in millions)
OpEx For Models
Cat modeling
$1,000
Other OpEx
IT
Outsource
T&E
Office Operations
Taxes
Other
Sub-Total: Other Opex
$2,000
1,000
1,500
1,500
700
2,000
$8,700
15
EFTA01101209
APOLLO
Overview of Business Plan: Overview of Operating Model
). General
—
Assumes stable underwriting environment where rates do not further harden
—
Cost optimization from broker-focused model
Y
Underwriting Revenue
-
— $260 million in premium written in Year 1 ramping up to —$2 billion Year 5 as balance sheet grows and underwriting leverage increase from
-
Premium earned over a two year period
-
—$400 million of run-rate float premium
—
-2.4 WAL of liabilities written
Loss Expenses
-
60-65% of premium earned
—
Paid out over a three year period (25%, 50%, 25%)
Acquisition Expenses
—
10-15% of premium written paid to brokers in year written
SG&A Expenses
-
—15% of premium written in Year 1 — primarily due to elevated OpEx from investments in core underwriting systems
—
Trends down to -5% of premium written as business matures and fixed costs optimized due to broker-focused model
Y
Investment Income
-
Allocation: 1% Cash, 49% Non-Alternatives, 49% Alternatives
—
NIER: 0.30% Cash, 4.00% Non-Alternatives, 10.00% Alternatives
•
In Apollo NIER Cases: 0.30% Cash, 4A % Non-Alternatives, 15% Alternatives
Taxes & Other
—
1% excise tax, no federal income tax
-
LOC charge of 50 bps
-
$200 million liquidity facility with 100 bps commitment fee, 450 bps interest rate on drawn capital
—0.25x to - 1.00x equity
16
EFTA01101210
APOLLO
Operating Model Projections
$ in millions Balance Sheet
Key Asp. Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents
1.00%
$10
$13
$17
$23
$31
$39
Non-Alternatives Portfolio
49.50%
495
619
826
1,119
1,531
1,946
Alternatives Portfolio
49.50%
495
619
826
1,119
1.531
1.946
Total Assets
$1,000
$1,251
$1,669
$2,261
$3,093
$3,931
Liabilities
Loss & LAE Reserves
$0
$70
$225
$445
$754
$1.057
Unearned Premium Reserves
0
104
229
395
627
764
Total Liabilities
$0
$174
$455
$841
$1,381
$1,821
Equity
Common Equity
$1.000
$1.000
$1,000
$1,000
$1.000
$1.000
$1.000
Retained Earnings
0
77
215
420
713
1,110
Total Equity
$1,000
$1,077
$1,215
$1,420
$1,713
$2,110
Total Liabilities & Equity
$1,000
$1,251
$1,669
$2,261
$3,093
$3,931
Key Statistics
Underwriting Leverage
Premium Written /Average Equity
0.25x
0.50x
0.75x
1.00x
1.00x
Loss & LAE Reserves / Equity
0.06x
0.19x
0.31x
0.44x
0.50x
All Reserves / Equity
0.16x
0.37x
0.59x
0.81x
0.86x
Assets / Equity
1.16x
1.37x
1.59x
1.81 x
1.86x
Profitability
Loss Ratio
59.9%
60.2%
61.3%
62.7%
63.7%
Expense Ratio
35.1%
28.5%
27.5%
26.7%
25.3%
Combined Ratio
95.0%
88.7%
88.9%
89.4%
89.0%
Earned Premium / Total Revenue
67.4%
82.0%
86.2%
88.1%
88.3%
Return on Average Equity
7.4%
12.0%
15.6%
18.7%
20.8%
NIER
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%
17
EFTA01101211
APOLLO
Operating Model Projections (Cont'd)
$ in millions
Income Statement
Key Assumptions
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Premium Written
$260
$573
$988
$1,566
$1,911
Less: Change in UPR
(104)
(125)
(166)
(231)
(138)
Premium Earned
$156
$448
$822
$1,335
$1,773
Incurred Loss & LAE
(93)
(269)
(504)
(837)
(1,130)
Acquisition Expenses
(23)
(74)
(143)
(242)
(308)
General & Administrative Expenses
(32)
(54)
(84)
(115)
(140)
Federal Excise Tax
(3)
(6)
(10)
(16)
(19)
Sub-Total: Underwriting Income
$5
$45
$82
$125
$176
Investment Income - Cash & Cash Equivalents
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Investment Income - Non-Alternatives
22
28
38
51
67
Investment Income - Alternatives
54
70
94
128
168
Sub-Total: Investment Income
$76
$98
$132
$180
$236
Total Operating Income
$81
$143
$214
$305
$412
LOC & Liquidity Facility Charge
(3)
(6)
(8)
(13)
(16)
Tax
0
0
0
0
0
Total Net Income
$77
$137
$205
$293
$397
18
EFTA01101212
APOLLO
Operating Model Projections (Cont'd)
$ in millions
Cash Flow Statement
Key Assumptions
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Memo: Target Underwriting Leverage (PW /Avg. Equity)
Premium Written
Loss & LAE Paid
Acquisition Costs Paid
General & Administrative Costs Paid
Start-Up Expenses
Federal Excise Tax Paid
LOC & Liquidity Facility Charge
Investment Income - Cash & Cash Equivalents
Investment Income - Non-Alternatives
Investment Income - Alternatives
Tax
Liq. Fac.
0.25x
$260
(23)
(23)
(32)
0
(3)
(3)
0
22
54
0
0.50x
$573
(114)
(74)
(54)
0
(6)
(6)
0
28
70
0
0.75x
$988
(284)
(143)
(84)
0
(10)
(8)
0
38
94
0
1.OOx
$1,566
(529)
(242)
(115)
0
(16)
(13)
0
51
128
0
1.OOx
$1,911
(827)
(308)
(140)
0
(19)
(16)
0
67
168
0
1.00%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00%
Total Cash Flow
$251
$418
$591
$833
$837
All-In Cash Flows
Year 0
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
CASH FLOWS
$1,000.0
CASH ON CASH RETURNS
PAYBACK %
$251
25.1%
25.1%
$418
41.8%
66.9%
$591
59.1%
126.1%
$833
83.3%
209.3%
$837
83.7%
293.1%
19
EFTA01101213
APOLLO
Overview of Key Risks
Liabilities
Disintermediation / Liquidity — accident events occur and Elysium Re does not have ample liquidity to pay for losses
—
Mitigated by the time lag between the incurrence of an event and the actual pay-out of an event
> Pricing — Business mispriced and Elysium Re does not have sufficient premium and investment income to fund losses
-
Mitigated by ability to re-price out of soft markets in short order as premiums / pricing typically set annually
-
Catastrophe risk and other low frequency / highs severity business lines are particularly exposed
subsequent losses
to large iris-pricings and large
Assets
Credit — Investments perform significantly worse than expected and impair Elysium Re's balance sheet and earnings power
Capital
> Solvency — Elysium Re's capital ratios fall below sufficient levels
> Regulatory — Regulators force Elysium Re to hold more capital against the risks in its business, resulting in reduced underwriting leverage and return
on equity
Ratings
r
Rating Agency — Rating agencies downgrade Elysium Re's ratings and / or refuse to give Elysium Re an A- rating and thereby substantially
impair Elysium Re's ability to write incremental premium and i I1N est in higher yielding assets
Taxes
> Regulatory — New regulations force Elysium Re to lose the tax advantages of its off-shore structure
Mitigants
> Diversified book of business — less volatility
> Non-correlated returns
EFTA01101214
A
() I. I. ()
Investment Portfolio & Rating Agency Overview
EFTA01101215
APOLLO
Overview of Elysium Re Investment Portfolio
As with Athene, Elysium Re will look to utilize Apollo and AAM (or another third-party asset manager) to take advantage of arbitrages in market illiquidity and
industry asset regulation (i.e. RMBS, CML), as well as by leveraging Apollo's alternative asset expertise and overall investment acumen
Liquidity and Shorter Duration
However, unlike Athene, Elysium Re will be dealing with a regulatory and rating system (AM Best being the most powerful agency) that puts much greater focus
on liquidity and shorter duration
While property and casualty liabilities offer Elysium Re the chance to source liabilities at a potentially much lower cost of funds than Athene can source with
life and annuity liabilities, the greater uncertainty of the property and casualty liabilities' payout patterns cause regulators and rating agencies to focus
more heavily on having ample liquidity and often shorter duration in assets
As evidenced by vehicles like Greenlight Re and SAC Re, it is possible for P&C insurers to invest in riskier and more volatile assets — but this is much easier to do
with highly liquid, short-duration, assets than with illiquid, long-duration, assets
For example, Greenlight Re's investment guidelines require that at least 80% of the invested assets will be held in publicly traded debt or equity, governments,
cash, cash equivalents and gold
•
— 75% of Greenlight Re's portfolio is currently invested in listed equity securities
Asset Leverage
Additionally, so as to please regulators and rating agencies, these same vehicles sometimes also appear to give up some underwriting leverage in exchange for
putting more heavily risk-weighted assets on their balance sheets — and effectively rely more heavily on outsized investment returns and are less able to leverage the
benefits of a spread-lending model
For example, Greenlight Re is levered at less than lx equity
•
Allocates finite amount of volatility allowed by rating agencies to asset side of balance sheet so as to invest in high-return, hedge-fund type assets
Hedging
Lastly, the precedents for alternative asset managers in the P&C reinsurance space are mostly hedge funds — who get some credit from rating agencies for the risk
benefits of a "hedged" portfolio — an attribute that Elysium Re's portfolio might not get credit for
The challenge will be finding a way to generate yields in assets that are more liquid and of .shorter duration, but at the same time can produce enough yield to sustain
returns that will not have the benefit of 10-14x embedded leverage (although these returns will have the advantage of a low /negative cost offunds) — as a result,
model requires additional "return juice" on underwriting side and may also require that Elysium Re migrate to higher risk, and more liquid assets than what Athene
holds
zz
EFTA01101216
APOLLO
P&C Re Sponsor: Hedge Fund vs. Elysium Re
Hedge Fund Sponsored P&C Vehicle
> Highly liquid portfolio
D Asset portfolios with 0-2 year in duration (heavy weighting to
equity)
D Focus on shorter-duration securities
D Focus on publicly traded securities
D Limited longer duration investments
D Limited illiquid investments
> Modest leverage (for some like Greenlight Re)
> Benefit of a "hedged" portfolio
Elysium P&C Vehicle — Illustrative Straw Man
> - $1 billion starting total balance sheet
> — $500 million in equity capital — existing alternatives
-
-$250 million in illiquid alternatives
-
-$250 million in liquid / hedge fund alternatives
-
15% investment yield
—
WAL of 3-7 years
> — $500 million in cash to be invested in a diversified portfolio of
credit, real estate, and structured securities
-
Yield range of 3.0-5.5%
•
WAL range of 3-7 years
> Total portfolio expected to yield 9-10%
23
EFTA01101217
APOLLO
AM Best Stress Tested BCAR Analysis Overview
Capital raise of $1 billion
PML charges assumed to be 250% of 2 CATs premium in year 1 falling to 235%, 225%, 220%, 220% in years 2 through 5
respectively as the portfolio is better optimized over time
-
This translates into a $ amount of PML of $101, $240, $288, $303, and $338 million (Years 1— 5 respectively)
-
These PML amounts as a % of year end equity are 9.4%, 19.2%, 19.4%, 17.1%, and 16.1% (Years 1— 5 respectively)
Investment portfolio mix for base case analysis:
— 1-5% cash (most likely -2%)
-
49.5% non-alternatives portfolio
-
49.5% alternatives portfolio
Capital charges applied to base case investment portfolio:
-
Very conservative 40% charge applied to the entire investment portfolio (excluding cash)
AM Best requires a minimum stressed BCAR for the first five years of any NewCo business plan of at least 175% and
will often require 200% - therefore targeting a minimum of 200% for all years — should translate to an A- rating
Note: These assumptions and scenario output are preliniinary and are subject to change.
24
EFTA01101218
APOLLO
Illustrative Overview of BCAR Calculation
Adjusted Capital Calculation
%Charge
Year 1
$ Amount
A.)
Reported Equity
$1.084,645
B.)
Less: Unearned Premium Reserve Charge
24%
(1,876)
C.)
Less: Probable Maximum Loss (I)
19%
(203,975)
D.)
Plus: Reserve Equity
2,029
Adjusted Capital
$880,822
Required Capital Calculation
A.)
Assets- C1
Fixed Income Investments Risk Charge
40%
$220,247
Equity Investments Risk Charge
40%
220,247
B.)
Reserves - C2
Reserve Risk Charge
29%
29,360
Premium Risk Charge
34%
68,307
C.)
Market Risk - C3
Interest Rate Risk Charge
10%
4,004
Credit Risk Charge
5%
1,663
D.)
Business Risk - O4
0%
0
Gross Required Capital
$543,828
E.)
Less: Covariance Adjustment (2)
(223,498)
Net Required Capital
$320,330
BCAR - ADJUSTED CAPITAL %NET REQUIRED CAPITAL
275%
(1) Probable Macintunt Loss ("PAIL") is the maximum loss (usually a 1 in 100 event on a catastrophe line written) that the insurer could face from premium written. Generally. 2 in 100 events needs to equatea PML of less
than 25% of total capital for insurers to comply with AM Best's calculation.
(2) Covariance adjustment is the de-risk benefit given to an insurer for diversity of risk (on both sides of balance sheet). which gives credit to the insurer for spreading out risk so that it is de-concentrated.
EFTA01101219
APOLLO
Key Next Steps
a7
EFTA01101220
APOLLO
Key Next Steps
Find And Structure Legacy Assets
— Detailed walk-through of all available assets of Elysium / Black Family
— Determine which assets appropriate from tax, liquidity, rating agency/regulatory, and Apollo conflicts perspective
— Source necessary cash funds for vehicle
Find Management Team For Underwriting & General Operations
- Option 1: Reach out to precedent prospective team that AGM vehicle worked with (i.e. Marc Grandisson)
- Option 2: Source team through FIG investment banking and internal Apollo relationships
- Option 3: Source team through professional search firms
Determine Asset Manager of Portfolio
- Option 1: Use Athene/Apollo as asset managers
- Option 2: Approach existing Elysium investment managers about managing a larger portfolio (i.e. Lone Pine, Millennium)
- Option 3: Partner through other existing relationships / family offices
Note: These assumptions and scenario output are preliminary and are subject to change.
27
EFTA01101221
A F 0 I. E. ()
1
Appendix 1: Former Prospective AGM Vehicle Management Team
Track Record
EFTA01101222
APOLLO
Management Biographies
Marc Grandisson
Marc Grandisson is the Chairman and CEO of Arch Worldwide Reinsurance Group. Joined Arch Reinsurance in October 2001
as part of the new underwriting initiative of Arch Capital. Marc began his career in 1990 as an actuarial assistant with
Tillinghast/Towers Perrin, first in Bermuda, subsequently transferring two years later to their Atlanta, GA office. In July 1994,
he took up the position of Vice President at F&G Re, Inc. where he was responsible for non-traditional underwriting. He joined
the Berkshire Hathaway Group in March 1999 where he served as a Vice President & Actuary until joining Arch Re in October
2001. Marc held the position of Chief Underwriting Officer and Actuary at Arch Re until his promotion to President and Chief
Operating Officer in April 2004. Effective March 2005, and in keeping with the corporate structure at Arch, Mr. Grandisson's
title changed to President & CEO. Marc was promoted to his current position in November 2005. Mr. Grandisson holds a B.Sc.
in Actuarial Science from the University Laval in Canada and an M.B.A. from The Wharton School of the University of
Pennsylvania. Since 1993, he has been a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries and in 1995 became a Fellow of the
Casualty Actuarial Society.
William O'Farrell
With nearly 20 years of experience in the insurance and reinsurance industry, William O'Farrell has served as Chief
Reinsurance Officer for the ACE Group since 2005. In this role, he has management responsibility for the design and purchase
of reinsurance programs for ACE and its business units globally, managing the company's reinsurance recoverable asset and
overseeing relationships with its reinsurers and reinsurance brokers. He also serves as Chairman of ACE's Reinsurance
Security Committee and is a member of its Global Credit Committee. Mr. O'Farrell joined ACE in 2003 as Senior Vice
President of Reinsurance Recoverables with global responsibility for managing the company's reinsurance asset. Prior to
joining ACE, he was Vice President and Legal Counsel with the Berkshire Hathaway Insurance Group, where he held a number
of senior positions during his more than 10-year tenure with the company. Earlier in his career, Mr. O'Farrell served as a U.S.
Army officer in Operation Desert Storm. Mr. O'Farrell holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with a
major in Finance from Creighton University. He also holds a Juris Doctorate from Creighton University's School of Law and is
admitted to practice in Connecticut.
EFTA01101223
A P O L L
Premium Management Team: Underwriting Track Record
Loss Ratio Comparison: Arch Capital Group Ltd. vs. Reinsurance Peers
2002Y
2003Y
2004Y
2005Y
2006Y
2007Y
2008Y
2009Y
2010Y
2011Y
Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio Loss Ratio
Company Name
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
63.0
63.1
63.5
66.3
52.2
45.6
55.9
44.6
44.4
58.2
Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd.
83.3
74.3
74.6
93.4
67.7
64.0
68.9
62.4
56.1
96.7
Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd.
64.0
52.7
58.7
90.1
53.1
53.1
65.8
52.0
65.8
NA
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd.
42.7
51.1
61.4
80.3
52.9
50.1
63.7
51.0
56.9
58.6
Endurance Specialty Hldg Ltd.
55.3
56.5
57.4
95.8
50.5
47.0
64.3
53.1
59.6
86.7
Everest Re Group, Ltd.
71.7
69.6
74.4
94.0
63.2
63.7
66.0
61.0
74.9
20.3
Flagstone Reinsurance
NA
NA
NA
NA
13.9
40.4
58.1
37.3
62.4
NA
Green' Ight Capital Re, Ltd.
NA
NA
NA
0.0
36.4
40.3
48.3
55.4
61.5
NA
Maiden Holdings, Ltd.
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
59.0
62.8
66.2
64.6
NA
Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd.
40.4
23.3
51.4
178.0
29.6
31.8
55.8
24.2
48.3
NA
Pa rtne rRe Ltd.
69.3
65.6
65.6
87.3
548
50.8
63.9
52.7
65.9
199.9
Platinum Underwriters
56.4
54.7
70.4
87.8
56.9
55.9
64.4
51.0
59.9
NA
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.
38.1
33.0
81.9
116.6
29 2
33.6
54.8
-8.0
15.0
NA
Validus Holdings, Ltd.
NA
NA
NA
NA
298
33.1
61.5
36.1
56.1
NA
XL Group plc
68.6
75.6
68.8
107.4
622
59.8
66.2
61.5
63.8
NA
Note: Data for Arch is for its reinsurance operations only
Standard
Average
Deviation
Arch Re
56%
8%
Poor Group
61%
26%
Sourtm SM.. AM Best Premium Spill Mita is for U.S slat:truly operations
EFTA01101224
APOLLO
Premium Management Team: Underwriting Track Record (Cont'd)
Expense Ratio Comparison: Arch Capital Group Ltd. vs. Reinsurance Peers
2002Y
2003Y
2004Y
2005Y
2006Y
2007Y
2008Y
2009Y
2010Y
2011Y
Company Name
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Expense
Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%)
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
24.8
26.1
28.9
31.2
28.5
28.9
29.4
29.1
29.9
29.1
Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd.
27.9
25.9
19.2
12.6
18.7
24.2
23.0
25.7
29.6
96.7
Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd.
25.0
25.3
24.7
27.1
29.3
29.9
29.8
32.1
30.9
NA
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd.
27.7
22.5
23.0
21.5
24.4
25.2
26.1
28.2
31.8
58.6
Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd.
30.9
28.2
28.4
27.7
31.0
32.9
29.2
30.9
29.1
86.7
Everest Re Group, Ltd.
27.4
25.7
24.6
26.2
26.5
27.9
29.2
28.1
27.9
20.3
Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings, S.A.
NA
NA
NA
NA
33.7
32.4
31.3
37.4
37.5
NA
Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.
NA
NA
NA
0.0
73.2
51.9
48.2
41.1
41.3
NA
Maiden Holdings, Ltd.
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
34.9
32.0
29.7
32.3
NA
Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd.
27.0
27.0
26.4
22.7
30.7
29.5
35.2
38.0
33.7
NA
Pa rtnerRe Ltd.
27.5
27.8
29.0
29.0
29.6
29.6
30.2
29.1
29.1
199.9
Platinum Underwriters Holdings, Ltd.
35.2
30.0
26.3
26.7
26.7
25.1
27.5
25.7
26.1
NA
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.
19.0
23.4
22.5
23.1
25.5
25.7
24.2
29.2
30.1
NA
Validus Holdings, Ltd.
NA
NA
NA
NA
26.9
28.9
30.7
32.8
30.1
NA
XL Group plc
28.9
27.1
27.3
25.6
27.3
29.0
28.7
32.1
31.0
NA
Note: Data for Arch is for its reinsurance operations only
31
Swine: SWF_ AM Rem. Premium split data is Jnr US mummy operwions
EFTA01101225
APOLLO
Premium Management Team: Underwriting Track Record (Cont'd)
Combined Ratio Comparison: Arch Capital Group Ltd. vs. Reinsurance Peers
2002Y
2003Y
2004Y
2005Y
2006Y
2007Y
2008Y
2009V
2010Y
2011Y
Combined Combined Combined Combined Combined Combined Combined Combined Combined Combined
Company Name
Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%) Ratio (%)
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
87.8
89.2
92.4
97.5
80.7
74.5
85.3
73.7
74.3
87.3
Alterra Capital Holdings Ltd.
111.2
100.2
93.8
106.0
86.4
88.2
91.9
88.1
85.7
193.4
Aspen Insurance Holdings Ltd.
89.0
78.0
83.4
117.2
82.4
83.0
95.6
84.1
96.7
n.a.
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd.
70.4
73.6
84.4
101.8
77.3
75.3
89.9
79.2
88.7
117.2
Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd.
86.2
84.7
85.8
123.5
81.5
79.9
93.5
84.0
88.7
173.4
Everest Re Group, Ltd.
99.1
95.3
99.0
120.2
89.7
91.6
95.2
89.1
102.8
40.6
Flagstone Reinsurance Holdings, S.A.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
47.6
72.8
89.4
74.7
99.9
n.a.
Greenlight Capital Re, Ltd.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0.0
109.6
92.2
96.5
96.5
102.8
n.a.
Maiden Holdings, Ltd.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
93.9
94.8
95.9
96.9
n.a.
Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd.
67.4
50.3
77.8
200.7
60.3
61.3
91.0
62.2
82.0
n.a.
Partne rRe Ltd.
96.8
93.4
94.6
116.3
84.4
80.4
94.1
81.8
95.0
399.8
Platinum Underwriters Holdings, Ltd.
91.6
84.7
96.7
114.5
83.6
81.0
91.9
76.7
86.0
n.a.
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd.
57.1
56.4
104.4
139.7
54.7
59.3
79.0
21.2
45.1
n.a.
Validus Holdings, Ltd.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
56.7
62.0
92.2
68.9
86.2
n.a.
XL Group plc
97.5
102.7
96.1
133.0
89.5
88.8
94.9
93.6
94.8
n.a.
Note: Data for Arch is for its reinsurance operations only
32
Sourie: SAE. AM Best. Premium split data is few U.S summits operadints
EFTA01101226
APOLLO
Premium Management Team: Underwriting Track Record (Cont'd)
Summary: Arch Capital Group Ltd. vs. Reinsurance Peers
2002Y
2003Y
2004Y
2005Y
2006Y
2007Y
2008Y
20097
2010Y
2011Y
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Loss Ratio (%)
63.0
63.1
63.5
66.3
52.2
45.6
55.9
44.6
444
58.2
•
Peer Group Average
Loss Ratio (%)
59.0
55.6
66.5
93.7
46.2
48.8
61.8
46.9
57.9
92.4
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Expense Ratio (%)
24.8
26.1
28.9
31.2
28.5
28.9
29.4
29.1
29.9
29.1
Peer Group Average
Expense Ratio (%)
27.7
26.3
25.1
22.0
31.0
30.5
30.4
31.4
31.5
92.4
Arch Capital Group Ltd.
Combined Ratio (%
87.8
89.2
92.4
97.5
80.7
74.5
85.3
73.7
74.3
87.3
Peer Group Average
Combined Ratio (%
86.7
82.6
91.7
114.2
77.5
78.9
91.7
78.0
88.4
168.6
Note: Data for Arch is for its reinsurance operations only
33
Sourie: SNL. AM Best. Premium split (IOW is for US shuutors operations
EFTA01101227
A F 0
L L()
1
Appendix 2: Additional P&C Industry Materials
EFTA01101228
APOLLO
Case Study: Greenlight Capital Re Valuation Overview
Tracing sLabs5cs
Pace (02'081121
525.97
Martel cap (runt
5972
52-week ngn
529.25
52-week low
520.01
P 2012 EPS
6.8x
P 12013 EPS
5.7x
Muted PM3V
1.32x
DNIderid yield
Stock once perrorrraroe
Feb2ri:
sap scc
Company overview
- Greerilgrt Capita Re, Ltd. IrG_RE*) is a special property and
casualty rensurer rased in the Cayman !wands
- Founded n August 200: through 5212mm ornate placement
- princioa vestal incltxted David Elrhorn (16.8%). MonMelle
IMernaaonai (9.3%). xeren Off Lanoar (7.0%), United Concregacon
MerfrOcan (7.0%), Seneca Capital (5.8%) aid Sceggin International
(5.1%) (pre-IPO ownershp from prospectus)
Completed Mmurtaneous 5224mm IPO and $,SCImrn prvate placement
Tern David amour In May 2007
- !PO corsurnrtired a: 12xx 331/2007 pm forma diluted prce book
- Linclerwres ror-com Tocfled. customized property aid casual)
reinsurance roams n areas ma: are underservec cr excenence
capacity snortages and provide favorab1e ong-terT reams or eadta
- Renswance business operates through two cZegcries:
- frequency busmess' criaractertzed 5y contacts *ft a occennaiy
large nteroer or smaller losses Ternary 'usurer diems tyolca big
tNs to ircrease tedervirtng capacity
severity btruness. charactenzed dy corm= wr.n ;marital for
significant 'asses erraratng Tom an event prmary insurers looking
to reduce catance sneet volatity buy ms pod= L potential Mr
higher long-tern returns at me excerse at ircreased voimity
- GLRE compernents urdervinng wit a nor-traltorai irvestmert
approach Mcusect or vaue-onenteo long-snort investments n a vartely
V asset classes 'Mtn ponary rows or pm le equity secunees
- imestrent pontoto is maraged by DYE Advisors. al enTy
cordate's ply :avid E rrorn
Majority ° busiress sourced through reinsurance brokers
- Current), has an A (Ey:corlti Inancai saergin rating t upgraded n
September 2011) aitn a static ouloot freer A.1.1. Best
- Employs 21 ful-tme litedualS In criceS in :he Cayman Islands and
Dubin, Ireland
Price I book value
0,ax
May2007
uu 2008
Sep2009
Dec2010
Feb2012
-
P: BV
ftrierage
Price / NTM eamingslal
15.0x
12.0x
0.0x
6.0X
3.0x
04k
May2007
Jul2006
Sep2009
Dec2010
Feb2012
—
Pt NTM EPS
Average
35
EFTA01101229
The P&C sector can be
broadly divided into
personal and commercial
lines coverage served by
both insurance and
reinsurance carriers
The P&C sector includes many types of coverage
Property & casualty coverage (Insurance and Reinsurance)
4,
"Short tail"
<1 year
"Medium tail"
< 1 — 3 years
"Long tail"
> 3 years
Commercial lines
Personal lines
Ocean marine
Inland marine
Commercial auto
Aircraft
Fidelity
Earthquake
Surety
Commercial multiple peril
Errors & omissions
- Product liability
- Medical malpractice
- Workers' compensation
Directors & officers
Financial guaranty
Mortgage guaranty
Title
- Personal auto
- Homeowners multiple peril
- Accident and health
- Umbrella
- Warranty
- Credit
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
16
EFTA01101230
Weighted average life of liability by P&C product
line
WAL
I
Homeowners & Farmowners
Weighted average
life of liability (years)
<1
Private passenger auto liability
1 - 2
Commercial auto liability
2 - 3
Worker's comp
5 - 6
Commercial multiple peril
2 - 3
Medical professional liability
4 - 5
Marine, aircraft and boiler & machinery
2 - 3
Other liability
4 - 5
Product liability
5 - 6
Note: Other liabilities include but are not Sneed to Errors & Omissions. Directors & Officers. Environmental. and Umbrella coverage.
Soume: SNL
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
37
EFTA01101231
Given the longer maturity
profile of the investment
portfolio, FA industry's
portfolio yield is on
average higher than P&C
industry by —1.5%
Historical investment yield
Annuities vs P&C insurers
Investment yield
Investment yield
8.0%
7.1%
7.0%
6.5%
6.5%
6.1%
6.2%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
5.7%
5.9%
5.7%
5.8%
Avg. 5.9%
0.bIo
5.3%
4.8%
4.9%
5.0%
5%
4.5%
4.2%
4.5%
5.2%
4 1%
.4%
4.3%
4.0%
3.8%Avg.
3.6%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
1.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
LTM
Median FA
t
Median P&C
Note: Averages calculated on the median of the constituents. LTM as of latest available financial data.
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
38
EFTA01101232
P&C underwriting is
inherently more volatile
than FA because of
differences in the risk
profile of the underlying
business
Historical cost of insurance
Annuities vs P&C insurers
Cost of insurance
Over the long-term, the
P&C universe we
analyzed has experienced
negative cost of
z
insurance, i.e.,
underwriting profit
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
(2.0%)
(4.0%)
(6.0%)
5.7%
5.0%
4.9%
5.1%
4.3
3.9%
9/11 terrorist attacks
(1.9%)
(2.4%)
4.9%
4.4%
4.3%
4.4%
Avg: 4.7%
3.7%
4.2%
4.4%
1.4%
(5.6%)
5.1%
Hurricane Katrina
2.7%
Japan tsunami and
Australasia floods
(4.9%)
(4.8%)
2%)
Avg. (1 1'
(1.6%)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
LTM
—4— Median FA
Median P&C
Note:
Averages calculated on the median of the constituents. Cost of insurance defined as total policy income less total policy expense less underwriting expenses over reserves. LTM as
of latest available financial data.
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
39
EFTA01101233
The net spread for P&C
has exceeded FA despite
the lower yield due to the
lower cost of insurance
Volatility in the P&C
insurance's cost of
insurance directly
contributes to volatility in
net spread
Implied historical net spread
Annuities vs P&C insurers
Net spread
I
12.0%
10.0%
10.0%
9.5%
8.8%
8.0%
7.7%
8.0%
6.1%
6.0%
6.0%
Avg: 5.5%
4.1%
4.0%
2.9%
3.4%
3.5%
2.0% -
1.4%
1.6%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
1.9%
1.7%
1.0%
1.0%
1.1%
1.6%
A
1.3%
0.1%
0.1%
1.1
0.7%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
LTM
-0- Median FA
-0- Median ps4c
Note: Averages calculated on the median of the constituents. LTM as of latest available financial data.
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
40
EFTA01101234
Volatility in underwriting
necessitates a higher
equity cushion for P&C
businesses
As a result, P&C
businesses employ lower
operating leverage
compared to FA
businesses
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
Historical leverage
Annuities vs P&C insurers
Reserves / equity
1'
Reserves / equity
16.0x
14.0x
12.0x
10.0x
8.0x -
6.0x
4.0x -
2.0x -
0.0x
8.0x
8.0x
3.0x
2.4x
2.6x
2.Ox
14.8x
Credit crisis results
in substantial
erosion in book
value of life insurers
Avg: 7.1x
5.2x
2x
2.Ox
2.
1.8x
1.9x
2.0x
1.9x Avg. 2.2x
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
acri2
Note: Averages calculated on the median of the constituents.
—io—Median FA
—.—Median
41
EFTA01101235
Invested assets
Annuities vs P&C insurers
Annuity
Bonds
Preferred stock
Common stock
Other invested
assets
Mortgage loans
Other
83.2%
0.8%
0.3%
0.2%
11.2%
4.3%
Protective Life
Conseco
Symetra
FBL Financial tat
American Equity Investment Life
National Western Life
Citizens
Kansas City Life
Presidential Life
92.4%
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
4.9%
2.2%
82.4%
0.5%
1.9%
1.2%
13.2%
0.8%
85.6%
0.7%
0.5%
1.7%
6.9%
4.6%
79.2%
0.2%
0.1%
2.0%
11.9%
6.6%
94.3%
0.1%
1.1%
4.5%
80.6%
0.2%
5.3%
0.1%
13.7%
75.1%
0.5%
0.2%
2.3%
17.1%
4.8%
88.3%
1.7%
8.0%
2.0%
Mean
Median
84.6%
83.2%
OS%
0.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1.7%
1.2%
7.4%
6.9%
4.8%
4.5%
P&C
ACE Limited
Ailed World Assurance Holdings
Allstate
Arch Capital Group
A)ds Capital Holdings
Chubb
CNA Financial
Endurance Specialty Holdings
Everest Re Group
Hanover
HCC Insurance Holdings
Infinity Property and Casualty
Markel
Mercury General
Montpelier Re Holdings
Platinum Underwriters Holdings
Progressive
The Travelers Companies
Validus Holdings
W.R. Berkley Corporation
87.2%
12.8%
81.0%
7.1%
12.0%
80.7%
0.2%
8.7%
8.1%
1.5%
0.9%
89.2%
0.1%
10.7%
88.7%
2.6%
0.1%
8.6%
86.1%
4.9%
6.8%
2.1%
88.8%
0.8%
0.1%
6.1%
0.8%
3.4%
87.9%
12.1%
80.3%
0.2%
OA%
7.0%
12.1%
90.3%
0.3%
6.8%
1.9%
0.1%
0.7%
94.8%
5.2%
92.1%
3.4%
4.5%
66.1%
27.2%
0.1%
6.6%
77.4%
0.2%
12.9%
0.8%
8.7%
94.3%
0.7%
0.7%
1.5%
2.8%
82.0%
18.0%
72.9%
1.6%
12.3%
0.0%
13.2%
92.3%
0.2%
0.6%
4.3%
0.1%
2.5%
86.1%
13.9%
79.4%
1.4%
4.7%
5.2%
1.5%
1.9%
Mean
Median
84.9%
86.7%
0.3%
0.0%
4.6%
1.7%
2.8%
0.5%
1.1%
0.0%
6.0%
44%
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
Note: Financial data as of most recent available (as of 9/30/12 or mom).
(a) Investment portfolio breakdown is for Farm Bureau Life Insurance. the nsurance subsidiary of FBL.
42
EFTA01101236
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
Maturities profile of bonds
Annuities vs P&G insurers
4,
1 year
1- 5 years
5 - 10 years
10 - 20 years
204. years
Annuity
5.8%
18.8%
28.8%
10.2%
36.5%
Protective Life
Conseco
4.0%
16.9%
27.1%
14.0%
38.0%
Symetra
6.4%
26.4%
39.1%
15.0%
13.1%
FBL Financial (a)
7.6%
22.2%
31.3%
18.9%
20.0%
American Equity Investment Life
3.4%
8.2%
19.8%
27.1%
41.5%
National Western Life
10.4%
34.9%
49.0%
5.7%
0.1%
Citizens
0.9%
6.8%
17.4%
58.8%
16.2%
Kansas City Life
8.0%
31.2%
40.9%
14.3%
5.6%
Presidential Life
7.1%
23.7%
32.1%
26.5%
10.6%
Mean
Median
8.0%
6.4%
21.0%
222%
21.2%
15.0%
20.2%
16.2%
PAX
16.7%
39.5%
30.4%
8.4%
5.1%
ACE Limited
Ailed World Assurance Holdings
17.2%
71.9%
9.2%
1.4%
0.4%
Allstate
7.6%
43.0%
31.2%
14.0%
4.2%
Arch Capital Group
11.7%
56.0%
30.1%
2.2%
0.1%
Ats Capital Holdings
15.8%
49.9%
29.1%
2.8%
2.4%
Chubb
10.6%
37.9%
28.9%
18.9%
3.8%
CNA Financial
7.9%
34.3%
22.7%
14.2%
20.9%
Endurance Specialty Holdings
24.6%
60.4%
11.9%
2.2%
1.0%
Everest Re Group
17.8%
56.6%
14.3%
5.2%
6.1%
Hanover
11.4%
37.3%
37.5%
10.5%
3.3%
HCC Insurance Holdings
13.0%
41.3%
31.4%
9.6%
4.6%
Infinity Property and Casualty
14.3%
46.6%
20.0%
6.2%
12.9%
Marks
12.6%
48.5%
32.5%
6.4%
0.0%
Mercury General
21.4%
40.8%
24.2%
11.2%
2.5%
Montpelier Re Holdings
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Platinum Underwriters Holdings
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Progressive
17.6%
70.4%
10.7%
0.9%
0.4%
The Travelers Companies
11.3%
34.4%
30.6%
22.2%
1.6%
Validus Holdings
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
W.R. Berkley Corporation
19.5%
36.9%
26.5%
11.8%
5.4%
Mon
Median
14.6%
14.3%
47.4%
43.0%
2411%
28.9%
8.7%
8.4%
4.4%
3.3%
Note: Data as of 12/31/2011.
(a) Investment portfolio breakdown is for Farm Bureau Life Insurance. the insurance subsidiary of FBL.
43
EFTA01101237
Different lines of P&C
businesses generate
varying levels of ultimate
losses per dollar of
premium earned; the level
of volatility also varies
On this page, we have
assigned frequency and
severity scores to various
P&C business lines
Frequency business
entails insurance that is
characterized by contracts
containing a potential
large number of smaller
losses emanating from
multiple events (e.g., auto,
workers comp., etc.)
Severity business entails
insurance that is
characterized by contracts
containing the potential for
significant losses
emanating from one event
(e.g., aircraft insurance,
marine insurance, etc.)
Deutsche Bank
Corporate & Investment Bank
Additional detail on P&C risks by product line
Historical incurred losses by product line (% of premiums earned)
5 year
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
average
Frequency
Severity
Private passenger auto liability
66.6
66.7
64.4
62.8
58.8
63.9
CP
Auto physical damage
58.5
57.8
60.4
57.6
55.3
57.9
•
ED
Homeowners
66.0
64.9
74.4
55.1
50.0
62.3
a
•
Workers' Comp
72.1
69.4
62.4
62.7
61.7
65.1
a
a
Commercial multi peril
51.9
48.3
56.2
43.5
45.0
48.9
0
•
Commerical auto liability
53.9
54.9
54.3
52.6
53.7
53.8
0
0
Allied lines
54.5
52.9
79.2
38.2
57.0
57.0
•
0
Fire
42.0
41.3
56.6
47.8
42.1
46.0
0
Medical professional liability
32.5
35.5
32.7
37.1
42.7
36.3
•
•
Aircraft
63.6
65.1
66.9
52.6
52.2
60.1
•
•
Marine
55.8
55.1
64.6
57.1
53.4
57.2
•
•
Legend
•
Maximum
•
Minimum
44
EFTA01101238
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