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efta-efta01178647DOJ Data Set 9OtherFrom: US GIO
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DOJ Data Set 9
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efta-efta01178647
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From: US GIO
To: Undisclosed recipients:;
Subject: JPM View 06.29.2012
Date: Fri, 29 Jun 2012 21:31:02 -10000
Attachments: JPtilyiew_06.29.2012-pdlizip
Inline-Images: image003.png
J.P.Morgan
The J.P. Morgan View
Mini-steps to Euro federalism
• And Allocation— Buy tyro bank bads as they benefit the mast with dr
ECR as Or new bank ;enlaceand potential TARP marry from the ESM
• Economies —Q2 likely the weakest ganer this winery.» l 4%.bul Q3 stal
Imf It sub 2% far the world UK yew& is cut by 114% Mr. year ~next
• Feted Income —Long eltunnem m EM. OW German Buds cnzsmarket
• Equines — Near- term upStele ShOuld [eerie <011110145 and meters whew
pantina
mote Ø.a0.
n e Ewo area «pubes and banks globally
• Credit - Einozone baulk lank lobe lite telatne wunri from dr EU swami
We go long f financial bomb in Ur CMOS portfolio
• Foreign exchange — Dalar mow: into a range pcnt dr Rowels EI ~a.
bul Pr main a number of hedge: anima mewed ono wears
• Commodities — Ike wet
in ter US i: patting up can and US gas paces
• Risk atsec are upon the week on great expectations management by the
F umpeans who Mel led dr %weld toexpect the wont front yesterday's EU
Sumatut lodr end. the Et kleppol back front the bunk. Euro area leades
caniguanntd on Ane of tru duayetannzb mamma= that at least tempo-
tam tams Me negative ettmanue and financial dynamic. est. as it m truly
[merles dent
• What (*lawn , Sununll dealer Hem is a aip kw! mew. Om snes pubbea
bow, (COW GF1MSI prows* more details Overall. d Id ts what is neededa.
save FMU. and ono is whew we started fir week. Men are could say we
tamed to — a naramneful step. with many :more to be tarn. and a nsk of
alsline lark when the details nerd to be filled ut
• NW mimed last week that the Sununu ultimately needs to te Ridged an
whether it maw: Ur Euro ara town& (heal and political Feder-alban. The
\hit Romy. Report on a GOMM(' Economu and .Vonaan. Noon spells Out
a vision of Me federalist end pant. but maned no agernera. Mucks an
invitation to by again with more concrete propangs by October Wry little
progms ems. except the the issir is now at least openly cm the Wee
• :or progrew »marls federnInni was mfl byaverring toa ;angle bank
wiprmeot undo the ECM to It implemented by yearmad The still twice
Er NI would then Le allowed to hrlp neat/nabs bank:. — a small move
towed. a much needed RunkTARR Also. a lint step was (Ara (meant
itnippuir the w-monty of official lending relative to the prwate mace in the
ea", of Ur EESE/ESM loan to Spain to meapitalur n. bank: The subanhua
non of pre-ate unrston has been dr man masai why official keen nese
subdued dr masker. Nonhern EIMU c not accepting this as a rule change. Om
one can argue that at cat is cm of the tag
• Equally unponant is that Øne stem. ate bong taken towards ending lilt
The omhang analyst es indicated by an ac See page 7 for analym
anthracite and unportant legal and regulatory Ølos erts
Global Asset Allocation
JP unman Gorman NA,
JP Mawr. 3~43 Lb
..banP 29. 2012
Jon Losys'c
(1.212) 8345874
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John Normand
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loan unmans» prwarkan con
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
(44 mi 7777 0386
nikola04. panigirt~preorgan 0Orn
Seamus Mao Gorain
(44.20) 7777-2005
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Matthew Lehmann
(444.20) 1134/853
mansa m inninanneipinetgan an
Leo Evans
(44.20) 7742-253,
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EFTA01178647
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