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efta-efta01193509DOJ Data Set 9OtherFrom: Tazia Smith c:1
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DOJ Data Set 9
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efta-efta01193509
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From: Tazia Smith c:1
To: jeevacation®gmail.com
Cc: Paul Morris
Vinit Sahni
, Nay Gu to
, Vahe Stepanian
Subject: Biotech Sell-Off.... [I]
Date: Tue, 25 Mar 2014 13:30:05 +0000
Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed( l); unnamed(2); unnamed(3); unnamed(4); unnamed(5); unnamed(6);
unnamed(7); unnamed(8); unnamed(9); unnamed(I 0); unnamed(I I); unnamed(12)
Classification: For internal use only
Jeffrey -
Biotech posted sharp declines. You are ua.,12712/2 across your basket of names as of yesterdays (3/24) dose (detail below along
with chart of Nasdaq Biotech Index and your holdings). Consider unwinding or hedging now and watching for entry point via total
return swap or zero cost risk reversal as this negative momentum bottoms out. Note: Mad an outlier (incrementally positive news on
drug, Idusig).
The Financial Times features an article this morning suggesting that the sell-off in Biotech is a signal of a broader market peak.
A letter from congressional representatives to Gilead questioning its plans to sell a hepatitis C drug (named Sovaldi) for $84,000 per
dose has put the spotlight on Congress' concerns that the expense might saddle state Medicaid programs with steep costs. US is the
only major health-care market remaining without any meaningful drug price controls — increased risk for the sector once the
Congress gets involved, especially if focused primarily on pricing.
Description
Trade Date
Quantity
Last Price* Unit Cost
Market Value
Unrealized G/L
SANGAMO BIOSCIENCES
05/28/2013
50,000.00
$
19.80
§
8.44
§
990,000.00
$
567,786.00
BIOGEN
02/14/2012
2,095.00
$ 312.60
$ 119.55
$
654,897.00
$
404,442.05
FOUNDATION MEDICINE
01/13/2014
25,000.00
$
36.40
$
27.51
910,000.00 $
222,336.50
GILEAD SCIENCES INC
2/5/14, 3/7/14
8,100.00
$
72.13
$
79.41
$
584,253.00
$
(58,951.00)
ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS
2/14/12, 1/24/13
16,535.00
$
7.60
$
17.60
$
125,666.00
$ (165 331.40)
Total Biotec $3,264,816.00
$ 970,282.15
Nasdaq Biotech Index - lyr Price History
EFTA01193509
NBI
( 2499.44 -77.77
On 24 Mar
0 2587.92 h 2587.92 L 2434.16 Prey 2499.44
99 Save As
98 Actions
93 Edit -
9$ Table
03125/23:4 Las: Price n
_ Cc- pre
---
ID
3D
Dt
OM
YID ! 11
SY
Max
Daily •
secumwso_cy
Line Chart
"Mr
0
Volurre
+ Track
I
• Last Price
2499.44
T High on 02/25/14 2854.26
e Average
2155.07
i Low on 03/25/13 1619.16
Annotate
News
Y • Volume
83.0411;
, •
• SHAVG (15L62.3MM
1
1
Jun
Sep
2013
Zoom
2014
01 Event
Mar
2800
7&)O
2499.44
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
0
Ariad - 1 r Price Histor
ARIA US
Market
K7.86 /7.88K
15x10
Prey 7.60
Vol 171,991
in
n Save As
99 Actions
Last Price P1 Lire
n
ID
3D
1M
6M
YTD
11, , SY
Max
Daily •
-
93 Edit -'
910 Table 1—mmilillnirre
a
_ Con-3are
vov Ai__ =MI=
VC
NEI"
*
C Security/SD-4y
IT Eve t
+ Track z Annotate
News
ZoOm
■ Last-Price
7.60
T High an 09/10/13 22.52
Average
12.8235
1
an 10/31/1r- 220
20
15
10
5
Jun
2013
Sep
2014
Mar
100M
Biogen - 1yr Price History
EFTA01193510
Sep
Oct
1 8IIB US
Q314.75 /315.50Q
1 x 1
Pr r. 312.60
Uri 715
=rpm
99 Save As -- NIERIMmoir/IPRIK•swgr119,0"'
:3125/20:4
ID
3D
114
6/I
YT:
Last !once EE L.-4 g
3' Compare
Moy. Avei is n=
1 SY
MAX
Daily •
ix Security/Study
4> Track . Annotate E News O. awn
tine uteri.
• Event
1
19
a
I
N Last Price
312.60
T High on 03/18/14 351.94
-•• Average
250.467
1 Low on 03/25/13 176.22
350
MEI
300
250
200
C
• Volume
715
•
StIAVG (15)i 11.806M
I
L
.
Jun
Sep
2013
2014
Mar
Foundation Medical - 1 r Price Histor
IFMI US
$
Market
P35.25 /38.78K
1 x 1
•
Prey 36.40
Vol 543 200
"r7rragnarniffnliiiiiiiiirgi
ust once ri Line R
3I Compare
Mow. Avgs
ID
30
IM
614
YID
1Y
SY
r.,. :JI
•
to Seetelyesly
it. Track / Annotate TZ News
Zoom
•
Vo
le Event
I
. Last Price
36.40
T High on 03/13/14 43.62
+-Average
30.1647
1 Low on 09/24/13 18.00
op
Vohme
L L.
SMAVG (15) 0.265M
0:543M
Jan
LineutENT.
Sal
'45
• 40
0-30
0-20
• 5M
Nov
2013
Dec
Feb
Mar
2014
Gilead - 1yr Price History
EFTA01193511
GILD US
I
Market
-
P72.64 /72.82K
1 <1
11
Prey 72 . 13
Vol 29 340
GILD US
ui
0312512013
99 Save As
Ac
r
nicns
rer
ne
w
03/15/2014
SM
VI
SY
Last Price M Line
_ co—Dare
•
In=
Max
Daily V
«
i
Security/StLdy
+ Track
/ Annotate
News
Line Chart
NEP
M Event
O
85
80
75
Vc_me
(f
• Last Price
72.13
T High on 02/25/14 83.95
4- Average
64.4132
i Low on 03/25/13 44.98
50
45
y • Volume
29340
. ..............
Jun
p
Dec
Mar
2013
2014
29340
San.amo - 1 r Price Histor
SGMO US
$ S nu: ket
19.85 21.40
2 2
Prey 19.80
Vol 2,907,036
SGMO US -•ui
99 Save As
96/ Actions
94 Edit -
9$ Table
03.:25/201.3
SD
3D
03/25/2014
.:4••
r
11.
SY
Last Price
Y:.- 2' •;,
Max
Daily •
a
ty.
t
Track r Annotate
News O, Zoom
• Last Price
ll
19.80
I High on 03/19/14 23.86
-- Average
12.1209
I. Low on 06/26/13
7.31
Line Chart
"Min
O
24.00
22.00
Volume
"1 Event
M Volume
2.907M
L •
SMAVG (15) 2.74r
Jun
Sep
2013
Dec
Mar
2014
19.30
18.00
16.00
14.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
1011
Healthcare sector has outperformed S&P500 last 4 years and has been the best-performing sector YTD
Improving R&D returns
Ongoing efficiency gains due to various 'self-help' measures
More supportive regulatory and payor environment
Increasing number of financings and IPOs in Q1
Frequent upward revisions lately to sales estimates at the largest biotechnology companies
Nasdaq Biotech Index (NBI) dropped 4.4% Friday
•
Sharpest decline since Oct-11
EFTA01193512
•
Triggered by a letter from congressional representatives to a biotech company Gilead Sciences, questioning its plans to sell a
hepatitis C drug (named Sovaldi) for 584,000 per dose
•
Gilead required to give briefing by 03-Apr
•
Sovaldi expected to generate >S4bn in sales this year
•
The drug's expense might saddle state Medicaid programs with steep costs
The whole sector is es_OS5
US is the only major health-care market remaining without any meaningful drug price controls
Risk for the whole sector once the Congress gets involved, especially if focused primarily on pricing
The biggest NBI firms sold-off significantly
Id chg (%) Index Wt (%)
BIOGEN IDEC INC
-8.2
7.9
AMGEN INC
-3.2
7.8
GILEAD SCIENCES INC
-4.6
7.0
REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS
-5.4
6.9
CELGENE CORP
-3.7
6.5
ALEXION PHARMACEUTICALS INC
-8.0
4.6
ILLUMINA INC
-5.4
4.6
MYLAN INC
-0.9
4.3
VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS INC
-5.1
3.8
BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC
-5.9
2.5
Ways to hedge exposure to the US biotech sector
•
ProShares UltraShort Nasdaq Biotech Fund (BIS US Equity): designed to be 2x short the NBI
•
Options on iSharesNasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB US Equity)
NBI - last 5_years
2009
I
2010
2011
2012
2013
201•
€I Index (Nasdaq Biotechnology Index)
Copyright! 2014 Blccoterg Pittance L.P.
23-Itar-2014 14:3S:20
30 -J0
2577.21
2000
1500
1000
500
NBI vs S&P500 - last 1 year
EFTA01193513
Normalized As Of 03/23/2013
Hi - 57.370
o• NBI Index - SPX Index 38.8807
Jun
Sep
2013
Dec
Mar
2014
Co
38.8807
20
NBI - last 1 year
2900
2600
2700
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
2013
I
2014
Nil Index flosdaq Biotechnology Index) Daily MSEF2013-23PIARXI14
Copyright 2014 Blomberg Finance
ahar-2014 14:35:52
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000
KCP Capital Markets
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are not the intended recipient (or have received this e-mail n error)
please notify the sender inmediately and destroy this e-mail. My
unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this
e-mail is strictly forbidden.
Tazia Smith
Director I Key Client Partners - US
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc
Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management
345 Park Avenue. 26th Floor
New
Tel.
Fax
Emai
Pascritn,-trr Perftrnt,
This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information.
EFTA01193514
If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication
in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this
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EFTA01193515
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