EFTA Document EFTA01367359

3I May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Pf Mary GrOWth Drivers Near-term production growth will be supported by several project start-ups. The recent (and worth noting 'on schedule') starts of the Kizomba Satellites Phase 2 and Block 15/06 West Hub Development projects in 2O15 are the chief drivers of 300 mbpd of crude growth through 2017. The long-term production outlook will be driven by the ramp from fields in the Kaombo Block 32. and contributions from currently unsanctioned projects (Cameia). Primary Risks Geopolitical risks withstanding, the key risks to production in our forecast window include a delay to project start-ups particularly the ramp from the Block 32 fields (projected on stream in 2017). and the delayed sanctioning of several projects including the high profile Cameia project (anticipated tate 2015 FID with peak oil production by 2018 of 80 mbpd). Project Delays: Through 2017, primary risk is in delays to the starts of two key projects: Block 15 NE Hub and the Kaombo Block 32. Although largely in process, there could be limited risk of delays associated with cost reduction efforts in the current environment. Incremental production from the Kaombo fields in Block 32 (2017 target project start) is expected to reach a peak capacity of -230 mbpd by 2020. Deep water depths, dispersion of fields, and high presence of salt imaging has the potential for increased technical risks. Sanction Delays: Including Cameia unsanctioned projects represent nearly all the incremental crude production from 2017 to 2020. Cost reduction will be a significant driver of accelerated FID activity; Cobalt is currently estimated Cameia YE15 sanction on estimated development costs of <$20/bbl and assumed $2Bn in estimated cost savings. Figure 71: Key Growth Project!). 2014-2020 14144 114114000 ken iles On..0 ..In1.AI Oni•I MI ItS stamp,. M Pitetvi 00.4.1=1 / 4 4 44111041440 F»rOr4411M.Mrl AM4 Pop 444 1044 14/114 VruMfl PP wJNd..YInM ItS NIS 1010 Ill 111 Rtiferi.a. Me, AM. (..(term oihrtbet ita.“ Ilt•W•CW.10 Or IM.s Ws .44144 three., OnInNin JO. • M1 401 not MP MI U V Si 1141 V..414 1144 1401411 Pat AN. 00444114 11....< at. 1444 P014 1774 In ON IA. Mt Or tvitgares 444004.4441 I, 11. 11.7 / lit nut Sala I, 19 ill GI ISM IfIVOnt AM,. tv9.4/ft tn..' 1.44.( , 11)) Oh*. . @mac.* 1,.... I. 144 ISO tb•lorOt..•1 ,,,,,,, n7OY.Onw.nnr.. M I/ VA/ Ht. AI), MS CO 0 LOD II 401 4 Pix/4 01 Art1ta It ttOM VI RA) son II 1104 V(.T/11t .11111. a.Ory.Y.1 t...t•eso 104 MN 1464/400.010.444 11 /64 AP a 0. . ions. Nrtr•orn ...iv. I chin ...m.4 , 1i ...ell 1He . nN lth II 0 II Sane Detach, art. 4404 MICA0414 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 41 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058892 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205076 EFTA01367359