EFTA Document EFTA01367362

2016 31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Canada Volume growth will be primarily driven by expansions to existing oil sands projects with a handful of projects (Kearl, Surmont, Horizon, Foster Creek, AOSP, Sunrise) accounting for -60% of the estimated 2014-2017 production growth. With falling oil prices accelerating a decline in capital spending (with some operators announcing reductions in excess of 75% to their budgets from 2014); the longer-term (2017+) production impact resulting from subsequent project delays represents in our view the primary risk. However, we would not want to underscore the risk to production that stems from a regulatory/political environment in which efforts to resolve infrastructure bottlenecks have been challenged. We view the near-term risk to production from the commodity to be mostly contained as US production-roll off in 2HI5 alongside seasonal demand uplift to support a moderately constructive view on crude prices. Figure 77: Canada Production Outlook, 2014-2020e (lY1bIcl) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 • 2014 2015 teBase 2016 Sawa. Onset. • ant Med ASSera AEA 2017 2018 2019 &Growth Bbls 2020 Figure 79: Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mb/d) sae 5030 4400 3030 2030 0 2014 2015 —6441 Meier Dliv4103m4n1 ••••011 EON Cell Sans Dania an WOOd AOdetr, 6a 2017 2018 3319 2020 ®Oise M 014944411 AS4401 FY40404 Dev4140m4411 Figure 7F£ Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. !shallow vs. deepwater (MWd) 6000 5000 1 4000 1 3000 2000 1000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2016 2019 2020 • Unconventional •Onshore (Cony) • Shallow water (Cony) Sown PAW,* elank, MOO* &Web.. MA Figure BO: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of —190 iMbld (14b/d) ens taro twang ant 11 great 944U et% 24 in armor fig44 State Ono:ft ant Med AttAlleVA EA 4319 4201 e144 Bul Page 44 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058895 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205079 EFTA01367362