EFTA Document EFTA01367367

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Colombia In our view, Colombia's upstream sector is significantly challenged amidst a backdrop of low oil prices, a low reserve life at existing fields, high field operating costs, transportation bottlenecks, security concerns, and corruption charges involving Colombia's largest oil producer. From 2004 through 2008, oil production hovered around a stable 550 mboe/d before ramping aggressively in 2009 and peaking in 2013 at over 1,000 mboe/d; chiefly driven by production from the heavy oil fields of the Llanos basin. The majority of the remaining commercial oil reserves in Colombia is in the Llanos Basin where three fields in particular (Castilla, Rubiales, and Quite) represented -40% of 2014 oil production. However, with the fields in decline, and production growth having largely outpaced needed infrastructure re-investment, we expect Colombia oil production to decline in our forecast period. We model a long-term decline rate of -5% (assumed upside from FOR projects) resulting in a decline in production of -200 mboe/d from 2013 peak levels by 2020. Figure 88: Colombia Production Outlook, 2014-2020e (Mb.rd) Figure S9: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs. deepwater (Mb/d) 1200 1200 1000 1000 803 800 6C0 600 400 400 200 • 200 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • Base Saute Debit an %tee' Ms Oink. NA 2019 • Growth BS* 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2014 NOnehcce (Cony) ! Son Dana% Inc NtottlogOIS 11 I Figure 90: Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mbld) 1200 1400 /O OCO 400 :CO 0 2014 2015 2010 2017 2018 2010 2020 Base ate Ow. el OnOnon Amt. aaw undo, Ovolcorno4 —nose. Drolomow 4444400 Gasp Car Sam Donde Bo* Mb= t 1.4•thenzi, Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 2020 Figure 91: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of --40 Mbld (tylb/cl) 900 852 800 700 070 500 3OO 4C° 200 100 0 Beer 1 1 a smo timing thin m grosin projects ■ 1%04 n (*dine rett4 San* D•asehe Bank Obolataclinfl 114 Page 49 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0058900 SDNY_GM_00205084 EFTA01367367