Text extracted via OCR from the original document. May contain errors from the scanning process.
From:
Martin Zeman
Sent:
3/6/2018 11:44:52 AM
To:
'Paul Barrett (I
CC:
Joshua Shoshan
I
I; Stewart Oldfield
Subject:
XPO Logistics and FEDEX
Attachments: 2018.02.22 - XPO Logistics - potential for 30% FCF.pdf; 2018.02.22 - U.S. Transportation report.pdf
; Davide-A Sferrazza I
I; Xavier Avila
Paul,
Please see attached 1-pager published two weeks ago (and also a more detailed report on the industry). Our analyst is
really bullish on FEDEX and XPO and doesn't like UPS which really got beat up last few weeks.
What I think makes sense is picking up premium on puts on these two stocks that you should be long if they dip lower
from current levels. You get $4.50 for $220 June Fedex Puts (the stock now at $242 and still 10% down to January highs).
When it comes to XPO, you can get $2.45 for May 90 Puts (we have a $133 target on that stock and I recently sat in a
meeting with our analyst and he clearly is very bullish this company).
My point is, you have nothing in logistics and you could be long a more defensive industry if you get exercised on stocks
that have really good growth stories.
On UPS — they really got beat lately, but they are way behind in capex investments compared to where Fedex is and
their automation levels are 20 years behind Fedex now. Could be a punt, but not sure it makes sense trying to catch a
falling knife on a story that is not attractive.
Martin
Martin Zeman
Director I Key Client Partners
Deutsche Bark Wealth Management
DB Secuities Inc
345 Park Avenue. 10154-0004 New York. NY. USA
Tel.
Mob
Em
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