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EFTA Document EFTA01388949Case File
efta-efta01388949DOJ Data Set 10CorrespondenceEFTA Document EFTA01388949
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18 October 2016
REITs
US REIT 3O16 Earnings Preview
Shopping Centers: Store closures to hit 30 internal growth,
but progress for re-tenanting more important
IFigure 53: 1-Month Shopping Center performance
WOO Retail
a.
911,
nm
I
:14S
w
•••
• t sestets' eine,se
As of 1W14/16
Seuroa 0
11•t SAL
[Figure 55: Vacancy up and rents down modestly in 3O
120% 1
, 4%
l 2%
"n4 I
•0%j
•1%
e0%'
-2%
20% 1
0 0%
. . . . .
temenesciswg..?wei,ett
Teeth n Erecthv Wye
—VOCPerfert
•
National vacancy rate was up 10bps q/q to 1O%
•
Effective rent growth was down relative to last O
to 1.9% y/y.
Sias Jana Ea. Su
Figure 54: YTD Shopping Center performance
Lod WAIN
Mown
9 3\
eett&tetit
eiotnecit
As of 10/14/16
Source Damn _n
'Figure 56: 2016 SS NOI growth similar to 1H level
ax
sic
4%
g 3%
2 2%
1%
0% en 00R
coy
FRT NSW/ REO
RPA1
RPT Mina.
•*MS
• 1016
42016
•
2016 SS NOI guidance on average at the
midpoint is —3%, implying steady results in 21-I,
although additional potential store closures
present downside risk.
San arch* era, cerary cla•
Key Shopping Center topics/gees:ions for the quarter
•
Development and redevelopment outlook
•
Anchor and small shop retailer health
•
Sports Authority releasing, downtime arid capex update
•
Logans Roadhouse and Golfsmith exposure and store closures
•
Outlook and thoughts on Staples/Office Depot (SPLS: DB Hold rated,
USD7.561ODP: DB Hold rated, USD3.34, both by Mike Baker)
New watchlist tenants
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Poet.
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
DB-SDNY-0092954
CONFIDENTIAL
SDNY_GM_00239138
EFTA01388949
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