EFTA Document EFTA01459020

tin mmilimm Ftcm. INtbc, ;404 WM:MAU:Mt t,*ic light, Asst..1:ms Nrsinc.04os Pr..frol.0 The big picture Our strategic forecasts Just as in 2015, capital markets are under the spell of central banks. But 2016 will be the year of reckoning. The Fed will have to lead the way and demonstrate that monetary policy can indeed be normalized. Stefan Kreuzkamp, Chief Investment Officer Economic data ;22-4*.e0 0mi/I 2.2 di 2.4 Eumnrync 1.4 1.6 Urnt0 Kegdorn 2.5 2.2 21410n OM 0 1.2 Ch,ro 6.8 1 6.0 Wwld 3.2 3.5 United States (GOP growth) 2.2%$2.4% (2015F) (20161) We expect U.S. GDP growth to pick up only slightly, to 2.4%. Following declines in unemployment, the United States are now operating close to full capacity. percent (year-on.year) 20151 2016F China 1 4,1.6 01,1.2 Umlex1 Status Emmons 0.2 sl .8 0.7,0.8 Uthlai KinislOgn _Isom China's growth Is slowing. Especially in manufacturing, it will take time for overcapacity to be reduced, maintaining downward pressure on prices Capital markets urited 516,”;52.0 500 in.*-0 2,075 2.170 7 fume: (SIM E groin MO !omm 319 390 6 Eusomom EURO 510X1( 50 lexical 3.448 A 3,600 Gonne', OM, 10.908 F 11,700 7 Kiwykro 1,10 0001 6.297 Jr 6,400 5 c1.02ei Jay.ininda.1 972 0 1.030 8 MSCE"Eftwoop Male!, IrMa. (1.15t1) 833 830 2 MSC! AC Axs 04 .kip inct4 (000, 512 510 2 M5CE EM UM: tv0tc12) Ii4 0.1201 2.029 1.800 8 MSC! EM Jaen Anionca index fin U.S. dollars) 2,029 y 1,800 (Current`) (Dec 2016F) Commodity-producing countries in Latin America remain exposed to China's slowdown. Political risks, especially in Brazil, are another area of concern. F raters to our forecasts. Our forecasts are as of 11/11/2015. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. No assurance can be given that any forecast ortarget will be reached. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and your capital may be at risk. You might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. .3 0 t=iterApost CF-)WVII.Ahn44,c4 Ecki,:51Dlomcm 2015 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0119217 SDNY_GM_00265401 EFTA01459020