EFTA Document EFTA01459049

The FOMC will take a more hawkish direction in 2016 — but we do not anticipate any significant policy implications from this shift The change of voting members will result in a more hawkish FOMC 7 # of voting members 6 5 4 3 2 1 —2015 -2016 1111111111=11111= ,•—•• FOMC becomes more hawkish on average Note: dotted Ines represent romps hawkish r dovish Wore each year. Source Deutsche Bank Research Composition of FOMC: shifting more hawkish Kocherlakota Evans Brainard Tarullo 2015 2016 • The Fed's voting members rotate annually except for several permanent spots (e.g., Chair, Board of Governors and NY Fed president) • Voting seats are set to shift in a more hawkish direction in 2016 - One less dove (Evans) and a net gain of two more hawkish voters (gain Mester, George and Bullard and lose Lacker) • While this could affect policy at the margin, we do not anticipate any significant policy implications form this shift Rosengrencudley Yellen Williams Fischer Powell Lockhart Kaplan Mester Bullard Harker Lacker OA, ,.1.111 :2 r stsacri.7, Bank nTtzuz,lzgarn't:<=e'alr ot.m.----- George Notes: Faded pictures denote non-voting members. Kochedakola to be replaced by Neel Kashkan (non-voting), not inckaled. Members grouped by level of dovish / hevekishness but vathin each sub-group ordering may not reflect differences in dovuth r hankishneas 14 CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0119261 SDNY_GM_00265445 EFTA01459049