EFTA Document EFTA01784772

From: Ens, Amanda Sent: Saturday, August 6, 2016 3:38 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Cc: Rich Kahn Subject: Alpha Checklist from MEGA Americas Jeffrey, this is our weekly alpha checklist. For the l0y JGB in yield terms at -9bp, there are stops over 5bp and t=en 25bp resistance and massive stops above 30bp (but don't see the BoJ let=ing it get that far in the near term) From: Kaldor, Gregory Date: Saturday, Aug 06, 2016, 8:07 AM To: Ens, Amanda Subject: Alpha Checklist from MEGA Americas <1=> Alpha Checklist Summary: =nbsp; &nbs=; Fixed Income volatility (BAML MOVE Ind=x) is going up relative to equity implied volatility (VIX Index). The move=feels structural with Ethan Harris noting in his latest "Ethanomics" <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=0=O10vHoy34g- USLrMQquw&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&h=clenmA> that the US is beginning to run-up against mild supply-side restrain=s. This does NOT mean the "stagflation", rather a modest deterio=ation in the inflation-growth trade-off. It comes in the context of strong US payroll data chttp://rsch.baml.com/r?q=x=FI7nFtIDGsULCIZFM7VA&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&h=DIvqlw> . On=top of this, Hans Mikkelsen notes the acceleration in revolving US consumer debt =or the first time since the financial crisis <https://rsch.baml.com/r?q==0zEPAIFhslsaeQFf966pQ&e=gregory.kaldor%40baml.com&h=NncE3g> (see chart below). We also note our BAML GLOBALcycle indicator moved back into positiv= territory for the first time since late 2014 chttp:firsch.baml.com/r?q=9!nsBXZBz4m4EwYdl23jdta&e=am=nda.ens%40baml.com&h=YKU8fQ> (s=e chart below). Both the developed markets (DMcycle=/span>) and emerging markets (GEMcycle) components individually shifted into positive territory as well. Furthermo=e PM's for the Euro area (ex-UK) and US remain very much =n expansionary territory. <http://rsch.baml.com/r?q=8Vhz=i7ZURvyXyDCoxb IrQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&h=X2v1qQ> In China, Ajay Kapur notes the drop i= REAL corporate bond yields from 10% last summer to only 6% now, helps manage the corporate debt to GDP ratio of 160%</=> with the 70% rise in the China monetary conditions index =CHBGMCI Index) since June last year. The question is can the fixed income c=rves handle the pressure? The Bloomberg chart below shows a rising BAML MO=E Index versus VIX Index is strongly correlated to rising US Bank stocks, while detrimental to fixed income. EFTA_R1_00106338 EFTA01784772 with three quarters of =he European earnings season over, the run-rate of EPS beats stands at 59% - the strongest results in over 5 years. However, most=surprises stem from cost management. The MEGA Trends Index (MLDIMEGL Index,=+7.5% YTD), also clearly shows US equity sectors outperforming fixed i=come sectors. Techs (XLK), Telecoms (XTL), together with Healthcare (XLV) are the three sectors with strongest price momentum in the MEGA Tren=s Index. Health Care is the one sector with improving Earning= Revision Ratios, Sales Revision Ratios and Management Guidance Ratios chttp://rsch.baml.com/r?q=k=SlqhpENEIXmBPbWCavcA&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&h=nEO6cA> . <=span>Besides Energy (XLE), fixed income ETFs now make up 5 of the 6 weakes= ETFs in the index (see ranking chart below). Using Kensho we looked at what happens one week after a simultaneous steepening of t=e US yield curve in 10s30s by 6pb and a 2% jump in the BAML MOVE index. We find=that Regional Banks (KRE) and Russell 2000 benefits as well as Telecoms an= Industrials. Click here for the link to the study <https://www.kensho.com/finan=e/warren/studies/edit/75119c5196e94bael3e0eb6277793a596> .=/span> In US & Canada: = =/span> Ethanom=cs: Despite Brexit and some choppy numbers, tren=-Iike growth continues in the US and globally. The US is beginning to run-=p against mild supply-side restraints, with more demand showing up in pric=s rather than growth. chttp:Arsch.baml.com/r?q=0vO10vHoy34g-U5LrMaquw&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=clenmA> The final evidence of tightening capacity is the modest pick-up in wage an= core price inflation. Both average hourly earnings and the employment cos= index have accelerated about half a percentage point, and core PCE and co=e CPI inflation are up 0.3 and 0.7% respectively from their lows last year. This does NOT mean the econom= is doom to dreaded "stagflation". Rather we expect the normal m=dest deterioration in the inflation-growth trade-off that comes in the lat=er half of business expansions, albeit from much lower than normal initial inflation rates. In Japan, disappointmen= over the latest BOJ move has already caused 10 year yields to rise from -=9 to -9 basis points. That still means super easy financial conditions. As=Deputy Governor Iwata made clear this past week "It's just unthinkable we will reduce the levels of ea=ing." We are cautiously optimistic about the near term outlook fo= growth and inflation in Japan. US Economic Weekly: Retail sal=s data for July will be an important indicator as we assess consumer spendin= growth for 3Q. We are looking for a solid 0.4% gain in core retail sales.=/span> <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=48xdUkNj00dJIp897fEfEA&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=XHpTHA> Producer and import prices should see growth. We have revised our forecast of 3Q GDP gr=wth to 2.4% (from 1.9%) and 4Q to 2.7% (from 1.7%). This reflects greater =nventory build given the sharp drawdown in 2Q. Even with the upward revisi=ns, we project annual growth will only be 1.5% this year, the slowest since the recovery began. Much of the =ecent weakness owes to headwinds associated with the drop in oil prices, g=obal trade and inventory mismanagement - controlling for the shock reveals=a more robust underlying trend. 2 EFTA_R1_00106339 EFTA01784773 We see the US job strong gains over the past two months as a payback from the very weak jobs report in Ma= (24,000) and sluggish reading in April (144,000). We think the Fed will w=it until December given that there are still global uncertainties on the h=rizon, as well as the US election at home chttp:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=xmFl7nFtIDGsULCIZFM7VA&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=DIvqlw> . Information service= and leisure & hospitality sectors saw the biggest acceleration in ave=age job growth in July and June versus May and April, of roughly 40,000 each. We have been particularly encouraged by the increase in the l=bor force participation rate (LFPR) which has shown an influx of new entra=ts into the labor force. The LFPR has increased for seven of the last ten =onths, showing a notable move higher since October. This means that there have been cyclical gains sufficient t= offset the persistent downward pull from the aging population. This means=that there is greater capacity in the labor market and perhaps a longer ru=way for this business cycle. CFTC Data: Asset Managers sold $3bn of S&P 500 futures to Aug 2. Leveraged Funds sold $2.4bn of S&=P 500, $6.6bn 10- yr Treasury. <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=TRRQfWewgH-O2SQAEfRSPw&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=kbdJog> Net =osition at or near 3-year extremes are: Asset Manager net position in MSCI EAFE and EM index at or near all-time highs and long EURUSD near 3=year high (98%tile); Leveraged Funds net position in EM also near 3-year h=gh (97%tile) and short GBPUSD near 3-year low. In Commodity futures, Manag=d Money positioning in gold and silver near a 3-year high (98% and 99%tile, respectively) while Other Repo=table WTI Crude positioning is at all-time high (data since June 200=). The US three-month earnings es=imate revision ratio (ERR) fell slightly in July for the second month, to 0.90 f=om 0.93 in June. The ratio remains above its long-term average of 0.85-a p=sitive signal for near-term market returns <http:Arsch.baml.com/r?q=kVSIqhpENE!XmBPbWCavcA&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=nFO6cA> . The more volatile one-month ERR improved last month to 0.99 from 0.69, sug=esting an equal proportion of upward vs. downward revisions in July (durin= the bulk of earnings season). Health Care, Energy, and Materials have all=seen more positive than negative revisions to earnings on a three-month basis. The three-month sales foreca=t revision ratio fell for the second consecutive month in July, to 0.71 fr=m 0.76. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index (NBI) has surpassed S&P500 (up 13% vs. 5%) since the end of 1Q, thanks=to increased M&A activity and solid 2Q earnings reported by the large-=ap biotech companies as a group <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=KshgavZi10ZXzt4rARRumQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=kez81A> . Recent NBI rally suggests a "real" turn in market sentiment post=major sector sell-off beginning last August. 62% of S&P 500 companies =ave beaten on EPS, 52% have beaten on sales and 40% have beaten on both co=pared to full-quarter historical averages of 53%, 57% and 35%, respectively. A PM's guide to stock pickin=: Value factors, which ranked among the weakest in the first half, posted th= strongest results in July <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=gDUoS1M0AhtgorQt3CVi5Q&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=67zH8w> (+5=9%), led by Forward PIE (+8.2%July / +1.6% YTD). Other Value factors also fared well, with most gaining 5-7% last 3 EFTA_R1_00106340 EFTA01784774 month. On a year-to-d=te basis, Value factors on average (+6.9%) are still short of the benc=mark's 9.4% return. Foreign Exposure also enjoyed an upsurge, gaining 6.3%=in July Credit Research: Credit Market Strategist: Hans Mikkelsen one key development we have been tracking this year is the =cceleration in revolving consumer debt (credit cards) for the first time s=nce the financial crisis. <https4rsch.baml.com/r?q=s0zEPAIFhslsaeQFf966pCt&e=gregory.kaldor%40baml..om&h=NncE3g> This, no doubt, is because consumers feel secure in their jobs and are exp=riencing significant gains in net worth. In July alone we saw consumers ad=ing $10bn of credit card debt (in data for banks, which accounts for 2/3 o= credit card debt), about a quarter of this year's increase. The US economy clearly is strong enough to sustai= the yield differentials that drive inflows to US credit and credit spread= tighter. The HY Wire: We have seen in the past when foreign money searches for yield it can mean the beginning o= the end of what seems like a secular rally. The stories we hear today rem=nds us of 2007, when Japanese investors began to reach for yield in sub-pr=me CDOs when fundamentals suggested it was the time to exit. <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=nDn2dailSrftycG4GdsmSg&e=amanda.ens9/040baml.com&a=p;h=NwxASA> With nice=gains of nearly 9%ex-commodities so far in 2016, we would try and positio= portfolios not for further gains, but for protection. Spread tightening will be tough to come by absent a rise and rates, we thi=k, and though yields could go lower, the relative value argument versus ri=k free or higher quality paper isn't there in our view. We see significant upside for UK non-fins names CDS. The Bank of England's expanded gilt and corporate=bond QE program is to acquire another £60bn of gilts and up to £l0bn o= corporate bonds <http:hrsch.baml.com/r?q=lTlf6B3jVFOuAtsMqWBvvQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=LvmRDA> . UK names CDS have been lagging in the past months heading into the EU referen=um. That trend continued and strengthened post Brexit. We find that the BoE could potentiall= target 19 names of the iTraxx Main constituents on top of those that=fall into the ECB's CSPP scope. That would bring the total number of eligi=le names under the CSPP, or the BoE CBPS, to 79. FX & Fixed Income: =/span> US Rates Weekly: US dollar LIB=R settings have been shifting higher over recent weeks largely due to two fa=tors (1) reluctance from prime money funds to offer unsecured funding at t=e 3-month tenor, which now extends beyond the mid-October reform implement=tion date, and (2) a potential pullback in willingness to lend post-Brexit<=span> chttp:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=MyAlvumbudoXRk-boSzVDQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=j8d1wg> . Of these two, we think that money =und reform is the larger contributing factor. The lack of prime fund supply has caused investors to raise their offering amounts =o achieve funding beyond these tenors causing LIBOR rates to increase. Alt=ough the cost 4 EFTA_R1_00106341 EFTA01784775 of the US dollar swap line is O15+50 basis points, we do=not think that this level constitutes a binding upper bound on the level of LIBOR largely due to regulatory capi=al charges and stigma considerations. We update our supply-impact analysis on rates, curve and spread to get a=sense for how the market responds to big issuance dates. On supply days wi=h a z score >1, l0y rates and 30y rates rise 58% and 68% of the time, r=spectively, and the average rate change on these dates has been 1.2bp and 1.7bp. GBP is set to fall further in the medium-term despite the recent build in shorts. GBP/USD at 1.25 could =e sooner than later <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=bH8F430GYNp4T-JCBK-2ag&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=IMEJSg> . Do not expect=an FX boost to c/a deficit due to the make-up of UK net foreign assets position which is geared to commodities. Build up in shorts=limits GBP downside for now but use rallies to 1.35 as levels to sell tops=de structures. In International: Global Economic Weekly: PMIs for the Euro area (ex-UK) and US remain very much in expansionary territor=. <httpl=rsch.baml.com/r?q=8Vhzli7ZURvyXyDCoxb!ria&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=X2v1qQ> China's official PMI did dip bel=w 50, typically seen as the dividing line between manufacturing expansion and contraction, but China's manufacturing PMI has tended to run=lower than in other countries. Risks may remain skewed to the downside, bu= the early warnings signs aren't signaling a global slowdown. Risks to glo=al growth are still arrayed to the downside, but we expect a decent 3.0% global GDP growth rate this year= and look for growth to accelerate to 3.5% globally in 2017. Our GLOBALcycle coincident indicator improved onc= again in July -the fifth gain in six months - and moved back into positiv= territory for the first time since late 2014. Both the developed markets =DMcycle) and emerging markets (GEMcycle) components i=dividually shifted into positive territory as well <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=9!nsBXZBz4m4EwYdl23jdQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=YKU8fQ> .<=b> Business conditions improved in most of the countries we monitor: all GEM-10 economies and most DM regions recorde= higher economic conditions indexes (ECIs) last month. Europe Economic Weekly: The fi=al set of July PM's painted a gloomy picture for UK economy, pointing to a do=nturn in growth. Conversely, they confirmed resilient post-Brexit sentiment in the Euro area, so far <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=aAMIaBV5NvuxIMHoCcBuWg&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=0LrOlg> .=/u> The Bank of England over-delivered with a strong package and they suggeste= more to come too. The strong fiscal hints are important. The authorities =howed today they understand it. This is important for confidence. We find =vidence that German occupational pension liabilities held as unfunded book reserves and demographic ageing =ave been a significant driver of rising corporate net lending since at lea=t the early 2000s. This suggests that capex growth may stay weak, despite decent gr=wth and profits and good financial conditions. 5 EFTA_R1_00106342 EFTA01784776 European Earnings Season Updat=: With three quarters of the European earnings season over, the run-rate of =PS beats stands at 59% - the strongest results in over 5 years. However, m=st surprises stem from cost management <httpl=rsch.baml.com/r?q=16WlvilPqMOtTaYpIxpcyg&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=1N2zWg> , given only 44% of firms beat top-line estimates. The season can also be co=sidered as a "low quality beat", as earnings beats were not rewa=ded as much as misses were punished. There was the largest inflow into European IG funds ever: High grade funds recorded their 21st week of =nflows and the highest ever <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=hAhltfyuoaccXL6FnMZnig&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=REpcNQ> since =he start of our data set. Flows into the asset class have doubled w-o-w, and propelled the year to date cumulative inflow to ov=r $13bn. Flows into equity funds remained in negative territory for the 26=h consecutive week. Almost $80bn has left the asset class over that period= The Bank of Japan's "co=prehensive assessment" in Sep MPM is creating intense speculation chttp:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=Mo7tW4OZTG2RNQMGbZdFTQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=3mWliQ> . BoJ may make QQE more flexible which would en=ance policy sustainability. Steeper yield curve, stronger yen and weaker e=uity but bank shares to rise. If the BoJ does move to make policy more flexible, w= think the focus will be on JGBs, rather than on negative interest rates. =n that case, the BoJ will have to stress the price stability t=rget is more likely to be met by increasing flexibility, rather than by cu=ting back on easing. 30y JGB Yield: &=43;0.25% still maintains a down-trend</=> Australia Economic Weekly: We expect the RBA to sit on the sidelines for the rest of the year in order t= observe how the 50bpts of easing this year <http:hrsch.baml.com/r?q=KhuCqwzCi8CTID8mrycrjCt&e=amanda.ensc/040baml.com&a=p;h=mB2zgA> . However, we expect a 25bpts cut in 2017, most likely at the February meeting. We expect the RBNZ to ease rates by 25b=ts to 2.0%.The Bank appears to be more comfortable to tackle the curre=cy now that tighter macro prudential measures have been announced. In Commodities: Global Energy Weekly: The seas=nal drop in WTI prices to our $39/bbl 3Q16 target has been felt throughout the=light- end of the barrel . While we see a crude price recovery to $50=#43;/bbl from here, we expect NGLs prices to continue to decrease</=> <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=!zdkzqYKG29bMaJYT2T53g&e=amanda.ens°440baml.com&a=p;h=tFpikA> as fundamentals weaken seasonally into the fourth quarter. NGLs ex. propan= stocks have built by 56 mn barrels since early March, the largest sea=onal build ever. 6 EFTA_R1_00106343 EFTA01784777 Oil Inventory Monitor: The cur=e ball this week, was the sharp drop in gasoline stocks (-3.2mmb) - which is=one data point in support of lower required run cuts <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=Dg3FteS!fdlqa33fDuxjvg&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=UK061w> . We believe it is this interplay that will create volatility in crude oil and product pricing near term. Ultimat=ly, we believe the stock overhang will unfold slowly, creating a slow burn=in the refining sector. We grow more confident in our view that calls for =il prices to drop below $40 level for a transient period. As we head into the back end of the year, we conti=ue to see strong product demand and declining non-OPEC production balancin= oil fundamentals. Global Metals Weekly: Zinc pri=es have risen by 56% YoY YTD. Reported inventor=es are well below recent highs, while physical premia trade above the lows <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=alsCEm3a6PISxBWH- neYSQ&e=amanda.ensc/040baml.com&a=p;h=fj7xIg> . The rally was ultimately triggered by a tightening =oncentrates market on the back of permanent, as well as temporary mine closures. The impact of these supply losses has been visibl= in ore shipments for instance from Australia and China. In Emerging Markets: The Inquirer - The Fundamental Reason to buy Asia: Ajay Kapur notes we are heartened by the drop in REAL =orporate bond yields from 10% last summer to only 6% now - important in ma=aging the burden of corporate debt/GDP of 160%. <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=nNEbIZBxFIR7yglAbWIDag&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=eS9NiA> <=pan style="font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Verdana","sans-=erif""> We are heartened by the 15% YoY rise in the =redit multiplier (loans divided by the monetary base) - almost 20-year hig=s - that leads Asia ex-Japan's earnings revisions, and for cyclical sector=. We are also encouraged by the 26% YoY rise in China's Tier 1 property market pr=ces, and that all tiers are seeing rising prices (11%YoY) - a US$22trn mar=et that is transmitting monetary policy. We are heartened by the 70% rise =n the China monetary conditions index (CHBGMCI Index) since June last year, that LEADS China's nominal GDP growt= by two quarters, and presages much stronger nominal growth in the next tw= quarters. Emerging Convictions: Oil is dipping in line with seasonal drivers and oil-related currencies and cr=dit spreads are moving mostly in line. Get ready to buy RUB <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=xlryyfCT-KRK- NK0Y6uynC184e=maxim.borbar/040citadel.=om&h=Jw1MKg> . LatAm CDS has become an attractive alternativ= to short dated bonds in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. In Asia we examine t=ree summer risks that could reinforce risk reduction. We are short 6M CNH vs USD, EUR, JPY, AUD and MYR. Asia Economic Weekly: Historic=lly, Korea GDP growth tends to pick up after the implementation of fiscal stimu=us. On average, real GDP growth increased around 0.8ppt by the fourth quar=er after the start of stimulus during the past episodes <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=KwyE0M-hzQLSDEYx277ZhQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=!ZchnO> .=/u> Assuming it is implemented in September, the implied growth impact for thi= and next year will likely be around 0.1ppt EFTA_R1_00106344 EFTA01784778 and 0.2ppt, respectively, in l=ne with our earlier tentative calculation. We reiterate our 2016 GDP forec=st of 2.7% and our call for Bank of Korea (BoK) staying on hold for a while, =ubject to incoming data. India: The GST legislation passed and it is a very material change to indirect taxation. It will redu=e costs, increase compliance, and help the economy. Valuations are stretch=d. The GST may not insulate from downside. Avoid Beta. chttp:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=0bqeEwfxiU5K-NK0Y6uynsa&e=maxim.borbatc/040citadel.=om&h=qxpqaQ> </=> latAm4=pan> Economic Weekly: Investor's focus in Brazil will be on the many steps that= Temer's administration has ahead. <http:/=rsch.baml.com/r?q=Pdcd7CFsSo!L3SsKw0hHbA&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=EPRxIg> Debt renegotiation with states and spending caps will be discussed in=the coming week. The pension reform project should be sent to Congress, after the final vote on Rousseff= impeachment, now scheduled for the end of August. In Mexico, we re=ised down GDP growth amid tighter monetary and fiscal policies, and weaker=external demand for Mexican products. We now forecast the economy to expand 1.9% this year and 2.1% next year. &=bsp;lnflation will decline in Argentina, leading the central bank to lower=interest rates. EEMEA Equity Strategist: Popul=sm in EEMEA, Europe and the US is likely the main theme for the autumn=/a>. chttp:hrsch.baml.com/r?q=7uxdfGrkL10S46veH8IMLQ&e=amanda.ens%40baml.com&a=p;h=NHw5TQ> To watch: 1) Above all, the 8 November U= elections. 2) The potential disintegration of the EU-Turkey migration deal. 3) The rise of populism in S. Africa's 3 August municipal =lections. 4) Any upside surprise in the populist vote in Russia's 18 Septe=ber elections. 5) Whether Austria's presidential election on 2 October bri=gs the first anti-EU head of state. 6) Italy's October/November constitutional referendum, which could lead to=major instability in the biggest Peripheral economy. Finally, adding to th= eventful autumn are Moody's Turkey review and the 21 September Fed meetin=, as dovish market pricing creates a skew towards a hawkish surprise that could hurts emerging markets (EM). =/span> MEGA Trends Momentum Ran=ing:&n=sp; Greg Kaldor</=> Managing Director US MEGA (Macro Equity &=mp; Global Alpha) Bank of America Merrill=Lynch 8 EFTA_R1_00106345 EFTA01784779 This message, and any attachments, is for the intended recipient(s) on=y, may contain information that is privileged, confidential and/or proprie=ary and subject to important terms and conditions available at http://www.=ankofamerica.com/emaildisclaimer. 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