EFTA Document EFTA01803463

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Wednesday, March 4, 2015 10:16 PM To: Jeffrey E. Cc: Richard Kahn; Vahe Stepanian; Ariane Dwyer Subject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 4 Mar Jeffrey — see be=ow for trading commentary. Another day of lower vol. Prateek Jain Sent: Wednesday, March 04, 2015 5:12 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 4 Mar Oil Wild ride in WTI today around the inventory data. To=al crude inventories built a whopping 10.3m, with 5.4m build in P3 of whic= 3.5m can be attributed to increase in imports. P2 builts (+3.3) were =ore surprising given the net reduction in imports. However, Cushing built only 500k! Given how closely everyone i= watching Cushing inventories in expectation of reaching tank tops there, =rb and wti prompt spreads rallied quickly after the initial selloff in fla=price, eventually causing a flatprice reversal and a $2 rally from the lows. WTI spreads roofed today, and even =hough Apr15 closed about lusd higher, Dec15 ended 37c weaker for the day. =n product world, Gasoline inventories showed a small build against expecte= draw, and distillates drew 1.7m. Oil Vols &=bsp; &nb=p; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (/change) 115 &nbs=; =nbsp; 45.30% -5.10% =nbsp; 47=45% -1.90% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 44.40% -1.80% =nbsp; &nb=p; 43.10% -0.20% Z1.5 &=bsp; &nbs=; 32.75% -0.15% = 31.75%&=bsp; +0.35% Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 24.75% -0.10% =nbsp; 24=65% +0.40% Base Metals 3m Ivls &nb=p; =nbsp; dod change&nbs=; support = resistance Al $1800 &n=sp; +$12 = &n=sp; $1750 = $1800 EFTA_R1_00147530 EFTA01803463 Cu $5837 &n=sp; +$15 = $=800 = $6000 Zn $2032 &n=sp; = +$1 =nbsp; &nb=p; $2030 =nbsp; $2150 Ni $13,930 =nbsp; &nb=p; +$2 &nbs=; $13,500 = $=4,000 Pb $1774 &n=sp; = +$26 = $=750 = $1855 The base complex started the day weak on a downturn =n EUR/USD but picked up around 12:30. Jobs data in the US and the gr=wth targets coming out of China's National People's Congress t=morrow will be key to that direction of prices in coming days. The Chinese growth target is expected to be around 7% f=r 2015. Marex spectron's copper sentiment index recovered to -=4.7 from -95.7 in late Jan, but remains bearish. Chinese copper demand is =aning causing stocks to rise significantly in recent days. Nickel rose - $200 at 11:15 with options expiry. Chinese =emand is set to rise as a government order closes some nickel pig iron fac=ories on environmental concerns. The bearish view on nickel revolves=around weakening steel prices and if they translate through to stainless steel, which uses nickel as a key ingredient. A=uminum prices rose above $1800 intraday but came back down for the close.&=bsp; Norsk Hydro sees the Aluminum market in deficit for the next 4 years =s demand from the auto industry continues to rise, but believes that high stocks are currently limiting prices and a= these run down prices will rise. Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are up 2.79% to =5 kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1747 kMT Shanghai =opper on warrant stocks are up 2.82% to 61.8 kMT. LME Copper stocks are do=n 0.33% to 267 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 2.71% to 314 kMT. Copper Vols are down 0.5% in the front , Ali Vols ar= unch, Nickel Vols are up 1% in the back, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vo=s unch Upcoming Data 3/3- Wards US Total Vehicle Sales- Sury 16.7m, Ac=ual 16.16m, Prior 16.56m 3/3- Wards US Domestic Vehicle Sales- Sury 13.4m,=Actual 12.87m, Prior 13.31m 4/3- HSBC China Composite PMI-Actual 50, Prior 51=7 4/3-RBI Reverse Repo Rate Actual 6.5%, Prior 6.75= 4/3-Markit Eurozone Composite PMI- Sury 57.5, Act=al 56.7, Prior 57.2 4/3- EC retail sales MoM- Surb 0.2%, Actual 1.1%,=Prior 0.3%, Revised 0.4% 4/3-Markit US Composite PMI- Actual 57.2, Prior 5=.8 </=pan> Regards, Prateek 2 EFTA_R1_00147531 EFTA01803464 =/p> Please=access the link for disclaimer: http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html &=bsp; Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/roddfrank 4P> This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information cont=ined in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_00147532 EFTA01803465