EFTA Document EFTA02126025

From: Sent: Thur 10/10/2013 9:52:22 AM Subject: Early Tour 10.10.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 85-175 bps ... NKY +1.12%, SHCOMP -0.94%, KOSPI -0.07%, HSI -0.56%, ASX -0.11%, TWSE (closed) EUR 1.3524 (unch) JPY 97.82 (-0.49%) EUR/JPY 132.29 (+0.49%) AUD 0.9433 (-0.12%) NZD 0.8255 (-0.59%) SEK 6.51 (-0.72%) US 10yr 2.69% Japan 10yr 0.65% Germany 10yr 1.85% Portugal 10yr 6.43% Italy 10yr 4.34% Spain 10yr 4.32% Futures: Dow +108, Nasdaq +25, S&P +14 DXY $80.43 (+5c) Crude $101.89 (+28c) Gold $1300.40 (-$6.80) Copper +0.06% Silver -0.14% Asian indices arc skewed higher helped by political optimism with both the WSJ and NYT running articles on the likelihood of a short term US debt deal. Japan outperformed as the weakening JPY helped lift exporters. Shanghai and Hong Kong were lower as stops were triggered on chatter that China is cutting growth estimates from 7.5% to 7.0%. The BOK left rates unchanged as expected and lowered South Korea's 2014 GDP forecast to 3.8% from 4.0%. 2013 GDP forecast of 2.8% was left unchanged. The Australian employment print initially looked light with 9,100 jobs added vs 15k expected, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 5.6% from 5.8%. Taiwan was closed for National Day. European markets broadly higher with money being put to work across the region today. Periphery leading the way once again (Spain & Italy +1.7%) and EMU Banks outperform with the SX7E +3.01% and breaking out to new highs. Jobless claims in the US due out in a few hours. SPA's bid higher +14 handles = 1662.50 last. ***BOE rate decision @ 7am (no changes expected to rates or asset purchases)" ***G20 FinMins in DC today & tomorrow for IMF/World Bank annual meetings*** •"Jobless Claims t 8:30am, MU & SWY report Ws after close*" ***ECB's Draghi speaks in New York @ 12:20pm*** EFTA_R1_00764196 EFTA02126025 • Ruby Tuesday wider than expected loss (sales fell sharply) eco headwinds hurt (trading -12%) • Synaptics prelim revs better & acquires Validity (Fingerprint ID) for $92M stock/cash • Citrix preannounced Q3 revs & profit to miss (no press release comments) (trading -13%) • Chevron (CVX) Q3 earnings expected to be lower hit by refinery maintenance • KKR to buy Crosby Group & Acco Material Handling Solutions from Melrose for $18 • Brazil raises benchmark rate by 50bps to 9.50% (as expected) (5th rate hike since April) • ECB & PBOC establish bilateral currency swap agreement (max size €45B / CNY 350B) • Meredith Whitney deregisters brokerage firm and plans to launch a hedge fund (FT) • Libyan prime minister Ali Zeidan kidnapped at gunpoint from hotel in Tripoli (Telegraph) • BlackRock said to trim London equity trading team by 5 people according to Bloomberg • Kabel Deutschland lowers 2013 guidance (sees revenue growth at 5-6% versus prior 8%) (trading - 0.42%) • WH Smith FY pretax profit +6%, revenues inline, plans another £50 buyback, high SI (trading +4.3%) • Hays strong statement, O1 net fees +1.0%, says it made encouraging start to the year (trading +1.6%) • Ashmore IMS out, says performing inline with expectations, AUM +1.4% in fiscal O1 (trading +1.3%) • Givaudan O3 sales miss estimates on emerging market currencies, confirms outlook (trading - 1.6%) • Suedzucker confirms outlook for fiscal year, continues to see risk from Ensus (trading +2.3%) • Informa: CFO leaving to go to GKN, not completely unexpected after CEO departure (trading - 1.3%) • EADS: Airbus sees $234B global cargo plane orders in 20 years (870 new freighter planes) (trading +0.43%) • Ingenico in accord to complete Elavon's offer in Mexico, expanding its presence there (trading - 0.50%) • Ladbrokes: Playtech founder Teddy Sagi may have acquired a near 3.0% stake (Telegraph) (trading +4.8%) • Mediobanca: Fondiaria selling 23.1M shares in accelerated book build to comply with ruling (trading +2.7%) • BAE Systems IMS: says trading consistent with management expectations (BA/ LN trading +1.6%) EFTA_R1_00764197 EFTA02126026 • Italy August industrial production -0.3% m/m versus est +0.6%, -7.6% y/y versus -1.4% prior • Sweden August industrial production -2.3% m/m versus est +0.5, -6.9% y/y versus est -4.1% • France August manufacturing production +0.3% m/m vs est +0.6% (first +ve reading in 4 months) • Fast Retailing: lowered profit forecast amid discounting (after close) (9.5% weighting in the NKY225) • Samsung agrees to sell back 9.0% Seagate stake for $1.505 billion (005930 KS closed unchanged) • Bank of Korea cuts 2014 growth forecast to 3.8% from 4.0%, leaves rates unchanged (expected) • Australia September employment rises +9,100 m/m versus estimate +15,000 (AUD -0.30%) Leading European Sectors: Banks +2.20%, Autos/Parts +2.04%, Tech +2.00% Lagging European Sectors: Food/Bev +0.22%, Retail +0.36%, Telco +0.66% CKSW prelim loss — GILD positive study results — HUBG cuts forecast Secondaries (announced/priced): CTRP (convert), CMLS, BPL IPO's: MacroGenics (MGNX) 5M-shares priced at $16, Western Regining Logistics (WNRL) 13.8M-units priced at 522 (above range), Antero Resources (AR) 35.7M shares priced at $44 US Key Research: Barcap downgrades ARIA & initiates RGLD (ow) & FNV (ew), Citi downgrades ARIA , Cowen initiates FEYE (op) and FTNT (mp) & upgrades CHKP, Ascendiant cuts LF • GS upgrades KAR/FCH (buy) & downgrades RHP, Janney upgrades ODP/OMX (buy) Jefferies upgrades OKE (buy) & initiates SPB/APAMNVETF (buys) and VRTS (hold) r Maxim downgrades ARIA, Mizuho upgrades HPQ, Opco initiates CBST (op) Raja initiates ORIT (op), Roth initiates HUIAG/LMAT (buy), Steme Agee upgrades TIF (buy) • Canaccord initiates BA/BEAV/DCO/HXUPCP/TDG (buys) & COUESL/SPR/TGI (holds) EFTA_R1_00764198 EFTA02126027 Europe Key Research: SocGen initiates ISAT LN (sell), Numis upgrades AHT LN, Citi names SWMA SS to least preferred list Kepler downgrades GRF SM, UBS upgrades AKE FP, Jefferies upgrades UL NA, BofA upgrades HOC LN • HSBC upgrades PSM GY, ENQ LN, GKP LN & downgrades AIXA GY & initiates RTL BB (ow) 0- UBS downgrades LG FP, GS adds LUMI SS to conviction buy, Canaccord says Royal Mail valuation 581p/share ▪ Nordea upgrades SKFB SS, Barclays initiates GCC ID (uw), MS downgrades ATL IM JPM upgrades TATN RU & downgrades ROSN RU, SIBN RY, SNGS RU, Kepler downgrades GXI GY • LBBW downgrades MBTN SW, Macquarie upgrades ICP LN, III LN, SDR LN, CS FP • Nordea upgrades MQ SS, ODF NO, NOCC NO, Oriel upgrades WTB LN, DNB downgrades UNR1V Fhl Pareto upgrades SCAB SS, SEB upgrades REC NO, SocGen initiates GL9 ID (sell), Vontobel, upgrades PWTN SW • CS downgrades MEDAA SS, SHP LN, GSK LN & upgrade IPN FP Reporting Pre-Open: HAWK, LNN, MASC, VAC Reporting Post-Close: MU, SWY, ANGO, EOPN, OZRK Economic Data: Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45AM EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, Treasury auction in 30yr bonds @ 1pm ($13B) Fed Speakers: Bullard @ 9:45am (St. Louis), Tarullo @ 1:45pm (DC), Williams @ 2:30pm (Boise, ID) Conferences: Jefferies Federal Cyber Security Investment Summit (DC) EFTA_R1_00764199 EFTA02126028 Analyst/Investor Days: DDR, LMCA, LINTA Non-Deal Roadshows: AINV, ALKS, ASEI, ATVV, BIOS, DE, HRB, IMUC, INFI, INTU, INXN, LEN, MRVL, NPSP, RALY, SRCL, USAT, VSTM, WC, LUK, LCAV Shareholder Meetings: ELRC, LNDC, JST, OINK Equity/Mixed Shelfs: KRFT Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Sina (SINA) WSJ • Fed split highlights Yellen's tough task FT • Jury still out on Murthy's Infosys return FT • Meredith Whitney to launch hedge fund FT • Private investors rush to Royal Mail FT • Obama steps up discussions with Congress to end budget stand-off FT • Britain's perplexing performance proves bane of economists FT • Washington blocks aid to Egypt FT • China's status as the top oil importer will push it to become more engaged in global security FT • IMF says start of Fed tapering threatens $2.3M bond losses FT • US drone lobby's power points to revived military-industrial complex FT • Defence groups' sweeteners swell to $75bn FT • Social media bulls strain at the leash for Twitter IPO FT • The fast-approaching end of the jumbo jet era FT EFTA_R1_00764200 EFTA02126029 • Fixing the eurozone is a labour worthy of Hercules FT • Forget the fiscal policy obsession — it's supply that matters FT • Carlyle's £1bn Bankside development approved FT • Large insurers reserve judgment over global capital standards FT • Men's Wearhouse: well-suited Lex • SFX: the beat goes on Lex • Debt ceiling: uncharted waters Lex • Suntech Power: solar panel beating Lex • Shutdown Standoff Shows Signs of a Thaw WSJ • Jos. A. Bank: No Suit for You WSJ Heard on the Street • Yellen Gets Fed Nomination With Bank at Turning Point WSJ • David Malpass: The Bigger Battle Behind the Shutdown WSJ • Karl Rove: The Public Weighs In on the Shutdown WSJ • Coffee Market Braces for Venti Bags WSJ • ECB to Create Currency Swap Line With China Central Bank WSJ • Turkeys Spymaster Plots Own Course on Syria WSJ • Migrants View Italy as Springboard WSJ • Euro Bonds Gain Favor Overseas WSJ • IMF Sees Greece Missing Target WSJ • Draghi Says U.S. Euro Critics Underestimated Europe's Political Will WSJ • SSE jumps first with 8.2% rise in electricity and gas prices The Times • Royal Mail underpriced by 80%, says broker as Cable defends sale The Times • The IMF has lost sight of its primary purpose The Times • Turbine plan has the wind knocked out of its sails The Times • China rescues Hinkley deal for a piece of nuclear action The Times • Alzheimer's treatment breakthrough: British scientists pave way for simple pill to cure disease Independent EFTA_R1_00764201 EFTA02126030 • Fed looks to taper stimulus this year Independent • Jim Armitage: Too many miss out on chance to climb aboard Royal Mail gravy train Independent • Vodafone rejected $95bn for Verizon stake and suggested merger Telegraph • Here's the truth: Facebook is an incredible force for good Telegraph • Austerity pushing Europe into social and economic decline, says Red Cross Guardian • Is India's economy finally getting its groove back? CNBC • China will get old well before it gets rich CNBC • Top 1 per cent of income taxpayers are bailing out the Treasury City AM • Beware the unintended consequences of well-meaning banking regulation City AM Key Events This Week Friday: PPI, U. of Michigan Confidence, Earnings (JPM, WFC, WBS) Key Events on the Horizon Oct 13 — China CPI and PPI for Sept Oct 14 — Eurozone fin min meeting. 10/14-15. Oct 15 — ZEW expectations for Oct October 17 - US Treasury debt ceiling to be hit in mid-October Oct 22 — Nokia to hold product launch event, Apple hosting event (updated iPad lineup expected) EFTA_R1_00764202 EFTA02126031 Nov 14 - ECB publishes its monthly report This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and Intended only for the person or entity to which It Is addressed. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this e-mail and any attachments) is strictly prohibited. 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