EFTA Document EFTA02143300

From: Ike Groff Sent: Thur 3/28/2013 10:00:16 AM Subject: Early Tour 3.28.13 Good Morning ... European Markets mixed ... ASX -0.57%, NKY -1.26%, KOSPI +0.00%, TWSE-0.35%, SHCOMP-2.82%, HSI -0.65% EUR 1.2769 (-0.09%) JPY 94.04 (+0.44%) EUR/JPY 120.09 (-0.52%) NZD 0.8378 (+0.15%) AUD 1.0427 (-0.17%) Spain 10yr 5.14% Italy 10yr 4.82% US 10yr 1.83% Copper -0.28% Silver +0.38% Futures: Dow -6, Nasdaq -1, S&P -2 DXY $83.19 (-3c) Crude $96.64 (+6c) Gold $1606.20 (- $1.00) Asia finishes mostly lower ahead of the Easter holiday, with several indices seeing exaggerated moves going into the close blamed on month/quarter-end squaring. China got most of the attention with the SHCOMP hit hard -2.8% as mainland banks were slammed after the CBRC issued new regulations on wealth management products. Japan traded lower throughout the morning session led by weakness in financials and other cyclicals (JPY move to 04 did not help either) but recovered from the worst levels in the afternoon on talk of BOJ purchases and perhaps some month-end window dressing. The KOSPI traded in the negative all day before a MOC program buy basket lifted the markets in the auction to end the session flat. South Korea's new government announced its 2013 GDP target of 2.3% which is lower than December's 3.0% under MB Lee. The Philippines was upgraded by Fitch to investment status but that market was closed today. Most of the region will be closed tomorrow but there will be trading in Japan, Korea, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Thailand. The European press will surely be focused on the re-opening of the Cypriot banks today with strict capital controls in place and tight security monitoring the situation. The banks will be open from 11am-5pm CET (Cyprus stock exchange will remain closed). Denmark & Norway are closed today while Sweden closes @ 12pm GMT. All European markets will be closed tomorrow as well as Monday. Reminder that clocks in Europe spring ahead 1 hour for daylight savings on Sunday so next week London will be back to the usual EST + 5 hours. Volumes were heavy yesterday in Europe but likely to taper off today into the long holiday weekend. 2 stock-specific situations in Europe getting most of the attention this morning: 1) Liberty Global has cleaned up Barclays' position in Ziggo by buying 25.3 million shares at €25 which will revive M&A spec in the cable space and 2) DE Master Blenders is in official talks with JAB on €12.75/share offer which has the stock +25.7%. SPA's -2 handles = 1554 last ***Month & Quarter End (S&P +3.18% mtd & +9.58% qtd), Market closed tomorrow*** ***US GDP revisions & Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, China Manufacturing PMIs out Sunday night" EFTA_R1_00799522 EFTA02143300 •"ACN, CMC, BBRY, GME, MOS, WGO, UTIW report pre-open / Russell Monthly Re-Balance after close*" ***Michigan Confidence & Personal Income/Spending tomorrow*** • Paychex margin upside helped small eps beat (sales improved but sub-par growth) (trading -1%) • Red Hat profit grew but revenue missed estimates & eps outlook light (trading -3.5%) • Dollar General priced 30M share secondary at $50.75 (sold by shareholders) • Texas Industries O3 loss/share (-30c vs -41c) & revenue ($141.4 vs 5139.9M) beat estimates • Ziggo: Liberty Global buys 25.3 million ZIGGO NA shares from Barclays @ €25/share (trading +10.6%) • Tele2 agree to sell Tele2 Russia for $3.55bn to VTB, Alfa group preparing $4bn counter (trading +2.9%) • Intercontinental Hotels sells Park Lane Hotel for $457mn with 60yr management contract (trading +3.1%) • DE Master Blenders in early stage talks with JAB over potential Eur12.75 offer (trading +25.7%) • LSE trading update in line, IPO market seeing signs of life, all fairly positive (trading -0.60%) • Total take $1.65bn Q1 loss on the Voyageur project, remain committed to Canadian Oil sands (trading -0.30%) • Antofagasta (copper mines) to resume development of the Antucoya project, production due 2015 (trading -2.4%) • Barry Callebaut (chocolate/confectionary) plans to raise share capital via max issue of 500k shs (trading -0.22%) • Tate & Lyle (sugar/sweeteners) O4 trading in line, vols normal, small —ve FX , higher net debt (trading +1.9%) • Audi in talks with Fiat to possibly buy Alfa Romeo according to press reports (F IM trading ) • Germany February retail sales +0.4% m/m versus est -0.6% (-2.2% y/y versus est +1.2%) • Germany March unemployment change +13,000 versus estimate -2,000 (unemployment rate 6.9%) • Italy March business confidence 88.9 vs est 88.0 (economic sentiment 78.0 vs 77.4 prior) • Japan's central bank governor tells Parliament that their govemment debt is not sustainable (FT) • Brilliance China Automotive shares get hit after missing profit estimates yesterday (closed -11.3%) EFTA_R1_00799523 EFTA02143301 Leading European Sectors: Trav/Les +1.07%, Food/Bev +1.00%, Real Estate +0.72% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -0.77%, Construction -0.34%, Basic Res -0.31% RDWR 2-for-1 split — ARRY sales pact — CLWR to tap $80M from S FIVE sees outlook below — GNW selling wealth-mgmt unit — PVH view trails VRNT 53% profit jump - SCS outlook light (div inc) — LCC judge approves merger Secondaries (announced/priced): DG, SJW, RAS, TUMI, MRCC, TXCC, CEMI IPO's (filed/priced): Pinnacle Foods (PF) 29M-shares priced at $20/share, Phillips 66 Partners (PSXP) files $345M through JPM & MS, QIWI plc (QIWI) files for $100M of ADSs through J.P. Morgan and Credit Suisse IPO's (lock-up expires): Apollo Global Management (APO) US Key Research: ▪ Canaccord initiates BDC/ECL (buy's) & EMR/ROP (hold's), Cowen initiates LMOS (op) GS initiates LULU (buy) & resumes NKENFC (buy's) & COLM/UA (neut), MS initiates UTX (ow) • Wells downgrades VHS, Needham downgrades ASTM, B. Riley initiates MDRX (neut) • JMP initiates BIIB/REGN/SGMO (mp's), Guggenheim initiates GS (buy) & MS (neut) Europe Key Research: HSBC downgrade FR FP, UBS initiate PHN PW (n), Citi upgrade RYA ID, CS reinstate HEIA NA (n) JPM upgrade BDEV LN, BWY LN, BVS LN, TW/ LN, LSRG RU, KGH PW, remove ILD LN focus list r GS adds WIE AV & NOVOB DC & cuts BG/ LN & CRDA LN from directors list, adds SBMO NA to conviction buy list  GS cuts SPM IM from conviction buy, downgrade WG/ LN, SUBC NO, CBK positive VOW GY, Barc EFTA_R1_00799524 EFTA02143302 downgrade MOL HB JEFF dig PWL ID, HSV LN, Natixis downgrade NEO FP, SocGen d/g EDP PL, Espirito initiate SPD LN (b) Swedbank downgrade TEL2B SS, Cana downgrade RPC LN, Kepler downgrade EMMN SW Nordea upgrade IFSB SS, downgrade ENO LN, KBC downgrade SIP BB, Danske upgrade UNR1V FH Reporting Pre-Open: ACN, GME, MOS, ALTI, BBRY, CMC, DLIA, FINL, FRED, GENT, NPD, PLUG, REX, SIG, SXE, UTIW, WGO Reporting Post-Close: AEHR, EGAS, KIPS, NLST, PCTI, QTWW, TPH Economic Data: GDP / Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, NAPM - Milwaukee PMI 9am, Chicago PMI 9am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort © 9:45am, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index @ 11am EIA natural gas storage @ 10:30am, Treasury Auction of 7-yr Notes © 1pm ($298) Conferences: CIBC Retail & Consumer (Toronto) Analyst/Investor Days: CBI, EBAY Non-Deal Roadshows: AEGR, ALNY, APC, BFILB, BKU, LIEN, CSGP, CSIQ, CWT, HAE, IART, KAR, LMAT, MAC, MACK, ONXX, PEG, UFS, VSTM, WLP, Z Shareholder Meetings: PRWT Equity/Mixed Shelfs: KCAP ($250M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories EFTA_R1_00799525 EFTA02143303 WSJ cautious: Mediaset (MS IM) WSJ • Kuroda warns Japan debt 'not sustainable' FT • RBS and Lloyds must raise extra £9bn FT • Cyprus imposes severe capital controls FT • Hackers mount widespread cyber attack FT • Google eyewear to be 'made in USA' FT • Top Pru shareholders back Thiam FT • M&A deal values hit by turmoil in Europe FT • Spain told to raise deficit estimate FT • Small states reject Cyprus comparisons FT • T-Mobile / Deutsche Tel: tilted economics Lex • EADS: ready for take-off Lex • Mediaset: in an ad slump Lex • Greek bets sank Cyprus's top lenders WSJ • Effort to form Italian coalition falters WSJ • Cyprus braces for bank openings WSJ • China worries arise in Sprint deal WSJ • Use of Food Stamps Swells Even as Economy Improves WSJ • Funds Reshape Investment Mold WSJ • JOBS Act Sputters on IPOs WSJ • Silver Lake's Win-Win Approach to Dell WSJ Heard on the Street • When Apps Attack: Industries Under Pressure WSJ • As Sales Rise, Automakers Focus on the Luxurious NYT • The messaging Apps taking on Facebook WSJ • Banks reject King call for cash cushion The Times EFTA_R1_00799526 EFTA02143304 • 'Biggest cyber-attack in history' slows Internet The Times • Doubts over Bank of England's £25bn confidence game Telegraph • Cyprus has finally killed myth that EMU is benign Telegraph • Pressure on banks to hold capital will damage lending Independent • UK stands on brink of triple-dip recession Independent Key Events Next Week Monday: European markets closed, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, RBA rate decision, Earnings (CALM, GMET, ZAZA, MBND) Tuesday: ISM New York, Factory Orders, Global March Auto Sales, Eurozone PMI, China Non- Manufacturing PMI, Earnings (MKC) Wednesday: ADP Employment Change, US non-manufacturing ISM, Eurozone CPI, Wells Tech Transformation Summit (NYC), Earnings (CAG, MON, HWD) Thursday: Challenger Job Cuts, BOJ decision, Spain & France Bond Auction, BOE & ECB rate decsions, Earnings (WDFC) Friday: March Employment Report, Trade Balance, German Manufacturing orders Ws, Eurozone Retail Sales Key Events on the Horizon April 8 - Obama to publish his budget April 15 — #NoBudgetNoPay deadline for Congress May 8 — Ira Sohn Conference NYC EFTA_R1_00799527 EFTA02143305 May 19 — US debt ceiling limit May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections Ike Groff 1680 Washington Blvd 'Stamford, CT 06901 1 'St ( This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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