EFTA Document EFTA02145166

From: Sent: Thur 3/14/2013 9:54:08 AM Subject: Early Tour 3.14.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 20-80 bps (Italy +0.91%) ... ASX -1.18%, NKY +1.16%, KOSPI +0.12%, TWSE -0.55%, SHCOMP +0.28%, HSI +0.28% EUR 1.2952 (-0.07%) JPY 96.38 (-0.26%) EUR/JPY 124.83 (+0.20%) AUD 1.0343 (+0.44%) Spain 10yr 4.83% Italy 10yr 4.68% US 10yr 2.04% Futures: Dow +25, Nasdaq +5, S&P +2 DXY $82.96 (+8c) Crude $92.66 (+14c) Gold $1585.60 (- $2.80) Copper +0.37% Silver -0.56% Asian markets were mixed following a lackluster session with volumes tracking average at best. Japan outperformed as the Nikkei rallied late in the day ahead of the Lower House vote on the BOJ nominees driven mainly by program buying. Mothers Index (+3.6%) acted the best which is indicative of strong retail investor sentiment. KOSPI managed to recover from early losses as quadruple witching expiry-related program buying toward the close pushed the index higher. Bank of Korea left rates unchanged as widely expected. India has been grinding higher as the core inflation number helps keep hopes alive that the RBI may cut rates on the 19th. China sees modest gains for the first time in Svc days as sentiment improved after Xi Jinping was formally appointed China's president. Hong Kong recovered from the worst levels but HK property names were hit hard after HSBC and Standard Chartered raised mortgage rates by 25 bps. Australia ended on the lows despite a much better than expected jobs print where employers boosted payrolls in February by the most in nearly 13 years (AUD +0.44% to 1.0343). Resources were sold off as iron ore breaks lower. European markets mostly higher with the periphery outperforming this morning. EU Summit begins today and they will discuss the balance between austerity and growth as well as the Cyprus bailout. Italy's new Parliament meets for the first time tomorrow and will be electing speakers for the lower and upper house in the coming days after which negotiations can officially begin on trying to form a new coalition government. Samsung Galaxy S4 launch event in NYC today. Options expiration tomorrow along with S&P/FTSE rebalances. SPA's +2 handles = 1552.30 last. ***PP', Jobless Claims, Current Account Balance @ 8:30am*** "•Fed to release decisions on proposed capital plans of banks*** EFTA_R1_00802245 EFTA02145166 • Men's Wearhouse loss matched & revs light (hires Jefferies to evaluate alternatives for K&G) (trading +14%) • Hot Topic Q4 profit jumped more than 30% on better sales (boost from extra week) (Piper cuts to neutral) • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters announces job cuts totaling 2% of North American workforce • Tod's FY EBITDA & net inline, dividend slight light, CEO confident of continued growth trends (trading -1.2%) • Hugo Boss FY inline, wholesale revs recover, div slight light, net debt better, on track for medium goals (trading -2.4%) • Gemalto FY revs/div inline, op profit misses on higher OPEX, solid organic growth, positive outlook (trading +0.73%) • K+S FY sales miss, EBIT in line, div slight ahead, demand hit by late US/Canadian winter, ok growth (trading +3.8%) • Boskaslis FY net income ahead, EBITDA light, div in line, backlog increasing, capex steady (trading +1.1%) • HeidelbergerCement FY revs inline, net profit ahead, div light, positive outlook, guidance maintained (trading +3.3%) • Wacher Chemie FY EBITDA better, div slight ahead, sees 2013 weaker on polysiliconlwafer prices (trading -1.3%) • Generali FY better, written premiums ahead, net hit by Eurl.7bn of impairments, improving 2013 (trading +6.2%) • Lufthansa pre announce good 2012 sales, solid profit, guidance slight ahead across the board for 2013 (trading +3.3%) • SGL Group FY sales inline, EBIT slight ahead, div unch, sees +ve FCF for 2013 but weaker EBITDA (trading -2.0%) • Morrisons FY revs & div inline, in talks with Ocado re. tech pact, to launch on line grocery in 2014 (trading +1.0%) • Ocado O1 trading statement ok, gross sales slight light, confirms in tech pact with Morrisons (trading +21%) • Subsea Q4 EBITDA light, net better on lower tax rate, special 0.6c div, rising backlog, cautious outlook (trading -1.8%) • Home Retail O4 sales ahead, Argos beats, Homebase better, solid net cash, high sht interest, good guidance (trading +11%) • Investec says FY op profit rose 3% to 23%, asset & wealth see string in flows, business integration ongoing (trading -0.10%) • Playtech FY revs & EBITDA at top end of range, adj EPS inline, strong start to year, positive EFTA_R1_00802246 EFTA02145167 outlook (trading +2.2%) • FOMC statements 2pm going forward (for meetings with news conf, econ projections 2pm & press conf t 2:30pm) • US regulators examining the setting of gold prices in London (controlled by handful of banks) (WSJ) • Spain sells €803 million across multiple long-dated bonds (slightly less than analyst estimates but bid-to-covers ok) • Germany ignores calls from EZ partners for more stimulus with plans to cut spending & balance budget (FT) • Qatar is in talks to invest up to £10 billion in UK infrastructure projects (road, rail, energy) (Telegraph) • SNB leaves benchmark rate at 0.0% as expected, SNB maintains EURCHFceiling of 1.20 level • Haruhiko Kuroda officially endorsed for BOJ by the lower house (upper house votes on Friday) • Xi Jinping officially named China's president cementing transition (will rule China for the next 10 years) • India's February inflation rate unexpectedly accelerates +6.84% versus median forecast +6.59% • Bank of Korea leaves key rate unchanged at 2.75% as a new government considers stimulus • NZ maintains rate at 2.5% (expected) but suggests will maintain loose policy longer than expected • Australia Feb employment rises +71.5k m/m vs est +10k (biggest monthly gain in 13 years) Leading European Sectors: Insurance +1A7%, Telco +1.07%, Chemicals +0.85% Lagging European Sectors: Basic Res -0.84%, Autos/Parts -0.67%, Retail -0.04% SCMP profit up - SIGM eps missed, sees Q1 profit — CBK narrows loss BFAM revs beat — VRA sees sales below ests — ASI reviewing options hires Bofa Secondaries (announced/priced): AWAY, SSNC, ETFC, CERS, OFC, ANAD IPO's (filed/priced): N/A EFTA_R1_00802247 EFTA02145168 US Key Research: • Barcap assumes ETN (ew) & upgrades AL & downgrades AER, GS downgrades CNW & initiates QRE (neut) • JPM upgrades MBT & cuts AMXN, MS downgrades ARG, Roth initiates QUIK (buy), Stifel upgrades CNQ (buy) % Sterne Agee initiates BZH/DHI/MTH/PHM/RYL (buy's) & KBH/LEN/MDC (neut) & TOL (up) % William Blair initiates ABMD (op) & THOR/HTWR (mp's), BMO initiates WFC (mp), RBC downgrades PGR • Piper downgrades GERN/HOTT, Atlantic downgrades NEE, CLSA upgrades KO & JCI (buy) % Macquarie initiate SNDK (op), KBW downgrades WAC, GS downgrades CNW, MS cuts ARG Europe Key Research: • MS +ve TCG LN, initiate LEG GY (ew), downgrade European Paper: (downgrade UPM1V FH, STERV FH) UBS upgrade ENEL IM, add IAP LN, GETIB SS, STMN SW to least pref, BIM FP removed, add NOBN SW to most pref Citi downgrade SOL SJ, MOH GA, MGGT LN, add SDR LN to most pref, add EMG LN to least pref JPM upgrade MISS RM, downgrade CKN LN, SNT SJ, Barc upgrade TCG LN, EEEK GA UBS downgrade JM SS, +ve PSON LN, GS +ve ATCOA SS, upgrade LEG GY, DWNI GY, GIB GY, SBMO NA • Natixis upgrade ASM, SANT downgrade VOD LN, HSBC initiate FOM LN (ow), +ve TCG LN Oriel upgrade BARC LN, downgrade HSBA LN, LLOY LN, RBS LN, STAN LN, Oddo downgrade ITP FP Equinet upgrade G1A GY, downgrade IPG IM, Chev downgrade ITX SM, Exane downgrade ITX SM, UBI IM Kepler downgrade CBK CY, upgrade DELB BB, initiate AVO FP (h), SocGen downgrade ABE SM • LIBR initiate FPM LN, BERE downgrade TOP DC, BZU IM, ZAG AV, Singer upgrade EMIS LN • CBK downgrade MRK GY, VER AV, BOSS GY, RAYJ upgrade RYA ID, SEB upgrade GFS LN Intermonti downgrade AST IM, upgrade EGPW IM, Numis downgrade NTG LN EFTA_R1_00802248 EFTA02145169 Reporting Pre-Open: AAON, ADES, ARQL, BKE, CATO, CBRX, CORE, CRTX, DSX, DYN, EBIX, GLP, GSE, HILL, KIRK, LCUT, MACK, NEON, NGS, NTI, ONTY, OPTT, ORBC, SNTA, SOL, TA, TAOM Reporting Post-Close: AMCN, ANAC, ARO, AVHI, CKEC, COSI, CPE, EDG, EGY, FXEN, GSAT, HALL, HOGS, KKD, LPR, MCP, OMPI, STEC, STRI, SUPN, ULTA, ULTR, ZUMZ Economic Data: PPI / Jobless Claims / Current Account Balance @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort © 9:45am EIA natural gas storage change @ 10:30am, Treasury Auction of 30-yr Bonds @ 1pm ($13B) Fed Speakers: Rasken © 9am (Washington) Conferences: Barcap Global Healthcare (Miami), JPM Capital Goods (Las Vegas), UBS Global Consumer (Boston) Analyst/Investor Days: JAZ SM, MDU, ONXX, ESIO, POM, SFY, ANSS, VCLK Non-Deal Roadshows: AAT, ALV, AVNW, AZSEY, BAESY, BCE, CARB, CDE, CMWAY, BRUS, CY, DAN, DMD, DTLK, ENH, EPR, EQIX, ET, EXAR, FOR, HBHC, ICUI, INWK, IPXL, IRF, ISS, MDT, MWA, NEU, NOG, NQ, PCOM, R, RATE, RDEN, RLJ, SCBFF, SIRI, SNY, SON, SPA, SPSC, SWFT, TRAK, TSLA, V, VOD, VRTU, WX, XPO, ZAGG, PRKR Shareholder Meetings: ADT, ASA, FSC, HURC, PTRY, RSTI, DSTI, SHFL Equity/Mixed Shelfs: BXS ($500M), CATM Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ positive: Ireland WSJ EFTA_R1_00802249 EFTA02145170 • Xi Jinping becomes Chinese president FT • Qatar lined up for £10bn UK projects fund FT • Germany defies calls for stimulus FT • Lisbon set to win deficit target extension FT • Finance ministers seek Cyprus bailout pact FT • Swiss franc takes centre stage FT • EU Parliament rebuffs budget FT • Boeing: narrow vision Lex • Prudential: splitting image Lex • Inditex: in and out of fashion Lex • Eon and RWE: picking between the pair Lex • Cathay Pacific: fasten your seat belts Lex • Honduras bond: emerging market debt Lex • Beware monetary experimentation FT • EU set for budget talks WSJ • Germany's model stresses execution over innovation WSJ • EU fires back in Austerity debate WSJ • Reinventing the Keyboard WSJ • Treasury could take £8bn hit under QE gamble The Times • Morrisons eyes online deal with Ocado The Times • Private equity catches up as banks facing loans time bomb The Times • Germany insists its economy is envy of the world The Times • Beans means bonanza as oil frackers tum demand for guar The Times • Qatar in talks to spend £10bn on UK projects Telegraph • Private equity's £32bn threat to the recovery Telegraph • Private equity crash could trigger next financial crisis Guardian EFTA_R1_00802250 EFTA02145171 • Vodafone blasted for 'decade of incompetence' Guardian • Asian century has already arrived for Prudential Guardian • Germany has one last chance to really save the eurozone Guardian • Why Tesco stuck its neck out to buy the Giraffe chain Independent • Sunnier days ahead after Thomas Cook makes £350m vow Independent Key Events This Week Friday: Options Expiration, S&P Quarterly Rebalance effective on close, FTSE rebalances on the close, Empire Manufacturing, CPI, US IP, Mich Confidence, MasterTrust Data, Italy's new Parliament meets for the first time to elect speakers of Lower & Upper House (March 15-18) Key Events on the Horizon March 19 - BOJ governor Masaaki Shirakawa stepping down, Italy President starts official consultations with the parties to form a government April 15 — #NoBudgetNoPay deadline for Congress May 19 — US debt ceiling limit May26/27 — Mayoral elections in 720 cities across Italy July 1 — Mark Carney takes over as BOE Governor September — German elections EFTA_R1_00802251 EFTA02145172 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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