EFTA Document EFTA02152106

From: Sent: Wed 1/2/2013 11:05:00 AM Subject: Early Tour 1.2.13 Good Morning ... European Markets up 1.4%-2.8% (Italy +3.3%) ... ASX +1.20%, KOSPI +1.71%, TWSE +1.04%, HSI +2.89% EUR 1.3248 (+0.33%) JPY 87.04 (-0.39%) EUR/JPY 115.31 (+0.72%) NZD 0.8372 (+1.15%) AUD +1.0491 (+0.93%) US 10yr 1.83% Futures: Dow +161, Nasdaq +40, S&P +22 DXY $79.50 (-23c) Crude $92.76 (+94c) Gold $1682.50 (+$6.70) Copper +0.93% Silver +1.83% EuroStoxx 600 rises to 19-month high and S&P futures just re-opened 6am +1.5% after the House passes the Senate approved fiscal cliff legislation by a vote of 257-167 which extends unemployment benefits and makes permanent the Bush-era tax cuts for — 99% of Americans while increasing tax rates on incomes > $400k ($450k for joint-filers) (income 35% 4 39.6%, capital gains & dividends 15% 4 20%, estate 35% 4 40%). But key decisions on the spending side of the equation have merely been pushed off for - 2 more months & Republicans will now use the debt-ceiling cliff in mid-February as an opportunity to press for big cuts/reforms in entitlement programs. China's official PMI Manufacturing comes in unchanged m/m in Dec at 50.6 versus estimate 51.0, marking the 3'd consecutive month of expansion. Other Dec PMI Manufacturing figures out around the globe: Eurozone 46.1 (est 46.3), Germany 46.0 (est 46.3), France 44.6 (est 44.6), UK 51.4 (est 49.1), Netherlands 49.6 (48.2 prior), Italy 46.7 (est 45.3), Spain 44.6 (est 45.0), Ireland 51.4 (52.4 prior), Greece 41.4 (41.8 prior), Sweden 44.6 (est 44.2), Australia 44.3 (prior 44.3), South Korea 50.1 (48.2 prior), Taiwan 50.6 (47.4 prior), India 54.7 (53.7 prior). Volumes globally are heavy today to kick off 2013. All 10 sectors of the EuroStoxx 600 are positive and there seems to be clear sector rotation into cyclicals at the expense of defensives. Periphery yields pulling back further with Spanish 10yr 5.14% = lowest level since March 20 and Italy 4.33% = lowest since Dec 2010. The S&P has been strong on opening day the last 4 years and looks set to continue the streak this year: 2012 +1.55%, 2011 +1.13%, 2010 +1.6%, 2009 +3.16%. SPA's +22 handles = 1442 last. ***Markit US PMI @ 8:58am, Construction Spending & ISM Manufacturing @ 10am*** ***Switzerland & Russia markets closed today, China & Japan closed until Friday"— • Live Nation chairman resigns effective immediately (sells shares to Liberty Media) • CBO estimates "Obama tax cuts" to add $4 trillion to deficit over next decade EFTA_R1_00815918 EFTA02152106 • Oriflame to start share buyback for SEK 350k / 3% of outstanding shares (trading +3.1%) • Weir Group sells LGE to Babcock for £23M, completes Mathena acquisition (trading +3.4%) • BP begins Skary production, to reach 125k BOED in 6 months, 165k by YE (trading +1.4%) • Shell & coast guard fight to contain grounded Alaskan drilling ship (trading +0.35%) • Brenntag acquires US distributor of water treatment chemicals Altivia (trading +0.98%) • Air France denies report in Le Figaro that it may scrap regional bases (trading +3.0%) • Nokia report that new batch of Lumias in China sold out in 20 min (link) (trading +8.0%) • BofA "sell-side indicator rises to 47.0 in Dec but remains firmly in -Buy" territory • China Steel & Posco to buy 15% stake in ArcelorMittal unit for $1.1B (MT NA +3.9%) • French new car registrations -14.6% in Dec & -13.9% in 2012 (inline with forecasts) • Spain December preliminary CPI y/y +2.9% versus estimate +2.9% (prior +2.9%) • Singapore Q4 advanced GDP +1.8% q/q vs est +1.6% (+1.1% y/y vs est +1.4%) • New record for Macau casino revenues in December (MOP 28.2 billion, +19.6% y/y) • Hu Jintao says China to step up efforts to support growth in New Year's Eve address • North Korean leader calls for "radical" economic shift, improved tics with South (link) Leading European Sectors: Basic Res +4.24%, Autos/Parts +2.95%, Banks +2.77% Lagging European Sectors: Healthcare +0.52%, Food/Bev +0.67%, Chemicals +1.3% RJET guides eps higher — MIDD buys Viking Range $380M — AAPL maybe testing iPhone6/ios7 Secondaries (announced/priced): TXT (convert) IPO's: N/A Key Research: Barcap initiates WGP (ow) & reinstates WES (ow) & downgrades LNKD Key Research: CS downgrades WLP/MR, Jeff cuts AEO/ANN/SKUL/TGT & upgrades URBN Key Research: MS downgrades BF/A, UBS cuts HOV, JPM cuts NTLS, Raja upgrades QDEL EFTA_R1_00815919 EFTA02152107 Key Research: Key upgrades VAL (buy), BMO initiates ABBV/ABT (op's) & upgrades SFD/BC Key Research: Piper downgrades TLYS, Citi cuts ASNA/ROST & upgrades PRXL (buy) Key Research: Numis upgrades DOM LN, Commerzbank top German picks for 2013 list out Reporting Pre-Open: N/A Reporting Post-Close: EOPN, LNDC, NAUH Economic Data: Markit US PMI 8:58am, Construction Spending / ISM Manufacturing @ 10am Conferences: No major conferences Analyst/Investor Days: N/A Non-Deal Roadshows: N/A Shareholder Meetings: N/A Equity/Mixed Shelfs: AERL ($150M), LODE ($50M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories Barron's positive: Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) Barron's • The eight Senators that voted "No" and why WSJ • Details of tax law changes spelled out WSJ • In Europe, Investors confront familiar story WSJ EFTA_R1_00815920 EFTA02152108 • Europe's recovery hinges on key Votes WSJ • Brics fade as engine of Growth WSJ • David Malpass: Nothing Is Certain Except More Debt and Taxes WSJ Opinion • France seeks new path to high tax WSJ • Britain's Great Stagnation WSJ • US Congress approves fiscal cliff deal FT • US budget deal — questions about cuts FT • Corruption in China — clock ticking FT • US share buybacks — keep it simple Lex • Africa is hooked on growth FT • China to outstrip Europe car production FT • US Congress approves fiscal cliff deal The Times • Punishing year looms for the banks as risks keep piling up The Times • Fixing just half of the US 'fiscal cliff problem is no big deal The Times • That was no cliff. It was a kids' playground The Times • China manufacturing continues to grow, surveys show Guardian • Global hopes stoked after China's manufacturers score hat-trick Independent • After a tip-top year, here's our 10 for 2013 Independent • China luxury market 2012 recap, outlook for 2013 Jinenaily Key Events This Week Thursday: FOMC minutes, Same Store Sales Dec, US House speaker vote, MBA Mortgage Applications, Vehicle Sales, ADP jobs report, China HSBC services PMI, Earnings (FDO, SONC) Friday: December Employment Report, Non-manufacturing ISM, Factory orders, Earnings (MOS, FINL) EFTA_R1_00815921 EFTA02152109 Key Events on the Horizon January 7 — US banks have to have stress tests in by Jan 7, Consumer Electronics Show (CES) begins (Las Vegas) (Jan 7-11) January 21 — Obama inauguration ceremony January 30 — Launch date for RIM's Blackberry 10 February — US Debt limit likely to be reached February 10 — Chinese New Year This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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