Economic theory manuscript on free growth, depreciation, and tax policy

depreciation plowback in light of the diminishing returns described by Ricardo, Malthus and West two centuries ago. We might crowd our niche, like other creatures, and leave neither consumption safe to spare nor room for capital accumulation before diminishing returns set in. But too little investment could seem a tougher challenge. No thrift at all, meaning not even depreciation plowback, would mean no growth at all. Then consumption rate would vary inversely as capital acceleration, just as predicted in in thrift theory. And underinvestment, meaning plowback of less than current cost depreciation, ought to happen about as often as overinvestment. If each year of underinvestment tended to fit the predictions of thrift theory even a little, free growth indexes should average something less than one in the end. But they don’t. The index varies, but averages more than one as often as less in every country and period. The explanation | suggest is already implied in that insight of two centuries ago. Just as overinvestment and capital glut diminish returns, underinvestment and capital shortage augment them until supply of capital catches up to demand. Even if there were no plowback at all in some years, higher returns to capital already in place would help take up the slack. There would be real danger in sustained underinvestment or overinvestment. The saving grace is in market forces restoring equilibrium as investors maximize return. Summary This gives the outline of free growth theory. It is my best speculation on how to make sense of the charts and tables. It follows Mill more or less exactly, and risks the next step in the bold new direction pointed by Solow. My prize exhibits are the charts and tables. Better this book should show them alone, with an explanation of my testing equations and the data sources, than all the rest without them. They could hardly support free growth theory better than if Mill and I had rigged them. The consequences are huge. We must get rid of the corporate double tax ASAP, and raise the corporate tax rate enough to make the overall Chapter 4 Mill’s Idea 1/11/16 27 HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_011018