EU Bank Stress Test Capital Needs and Commentary on Credit Rating Reliance

Recent bank stress tests conducted by the EU concluded that only Eur 2.5 billion of capital needs to be raised (70 to 80 billion sounds more reasonable to us). And in the package announced last week, the following Orwellian clause indicates how European policymakers feel about rating agencies these days: Point 15. We agree that reliance on external credit ratings in the EU regulatory framework should be reduced, taking into account the Commission's recent proposals in that direction, and we look forward to the Commission proposals on credit ratings agencies In Europe, denial appears to be an essential ingredient to the process (See “Five Stages of Greece”, June 30, 2011). Last week’s package is a bold step towards Federalization and the worst-case outcomes have been avoided (money market failures, bank runs, etc), but markets will remain nervous about Europe. While we’re waiting: large cap growth stocks One day, the melodramas around US and European sovereign debt will end. While we’re waiting, one of the asset classes that looks attractive is large cap growth stocks. As shown below (for a universe of 300 U.S. large cap growth stocks that meet certain earnings quality and stability factors), free cash flow relative to both revenues and stock prices looks good compared to the last four decades. This is where we believe investors should be adding exposure if they are underweight versus their desired equity allocations. This is also an asset class where active management can still provide a lot of value; the dispersion of large cap growth managers is higher than large cap core, large cap value and international equity manager dispersion. Q2 earnings season in the US is off to a good start. Nearly 30% of the S&P has reported, and results have generally been positive. Earnings are beating consensus estimates by almost 4% (7.4% ex-financials), all ten sectors are beating on revenue targets, and only 7% of companies are reporting below-consensus earnings. Given earnings expectations for 2011 at $98.50, the S&P 500 is trading at a reasonable 13.5x forward multiple. However, y/y earnings growth expectations appear to be flattening out for both 2011 and 2012 at around 11%-12%. While Q2 earnings are doing well so far, some company guidance for the remainder of the year has been below consensus, which would be consistent with the recent batch of reports indicating a slowdown in manufacturing and service sector surveys. Michael Cembalest Chief Investment Officer Notes [a] Bundesbank President Weidmann, in response to last week’s package: “By transferring significant risks to the support-giving countries and their taxpayers, the Euro area has taken a large step to socialising risks created by unsound government finances and macroeconomic problems. This weakens the foundations of the fiscal self-responsibility that EMU is built on”. CBO Congressional Budget Office OMB _ Office of Management and Budget EFSF European Financial Stability Facility FICA Federal Insurance Contributions Act EU European Union IMF International Monetary Fund HOUSE_OVERSIGHT_031163