EFTA Document EFTA01367321

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Table Of Contents Executive Summary 3 The Non-OPEC growth outlook to 2017 8 Looking for rapid declines? Don't hold your breath Non-OPEC growth: Late to the party 8 Where is the growth coming from? 10 Capex Reductions 15 Show me the money (or lack thereof) 15 Setting the stage for the next oil price spike? 18 The North Sea: A Case Study On Spend and Decline Rates 20 Implied Call on the US 24 The new, "price driven" swing producer 24 Incentivizing the US producer 27 Updated Equities Outlook 29 Getting a Bit Defensive 29 Upgrading OXY to Buy from Hold 32 Downgrading HES to Hold from Buy 32 Risks to the Outlook 33 Iran and the Rest of OPEC 33 Other Risks to the Outlook 37 A Country by Country Outlook on Key Players 40 Angola 40 Brazil 42 Canada 44 Caspian Sea, ex Russie 47 Colombia 49 U.S. Gulf of Mexico 51 Malaysia 54 Mexico 56 North Sea 59 Russia 61 Appendix 63 Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058853 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205037 EFTA01367321