EFTA Document EFTA01367331

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Post-2017, project risk increases materially, with 25% of expected growth from 2018-2020 not yet sanctioned (and unlikely to be sanctioned anytime soon). The ultra-deepwater grows increasingly important during this time period, ising to -24% of expected growth, with another 11% from deepwater projects. I Figure IS: Post 2017, growth from "Not Yet Developed" bbls is expected to increase to 25%... Ononon 22% Ng Yst Oralepod 20% Under Ovolwo001 52% Samara°. Oink Mar Afannn AEA ( Figure 20: Decomposition of YoY Growth from Major Projects By Development Status I I 1000 1000 1400 '200 1000 MO 1 600 200 0 2015E • OnOniOrn 2010E 2012E 2010E 2011E '2020€ Figure 19: With Deepwater (UDW and DIM expected to be the single highest source of growth (-35%) lincontool. COw 13% 11% Siolow-WOW 21% Ma Ondw• 31% Sane Danner( Meet Maar*" a Leanonronfaxtuf es a Y int Figure 21: Decomposition of YoY Growth from Major Projects By Project Type 2015,E 2010E 2011E 2015E 2011E 2020E • Costae fl adwAYste. .00cep•Weler • Ms OewAVELer ollnamatowl. Oha 504aN Vetache SM. WOOS Ataltmaft. atom fa awl Laolnxen FM• na anon Satre Doane Onl. HOW Montour*. FM, XICIpol-cp a, • "Yaw min rani tont inn own% Avers MOW In terms of the physical decomposition of the crude bbls that are to hit the global market in the coming years, the mix is weighted heavily toward heavy Canadian oil sand volumes and medium heavy Brazilian barrels (lara and Tartaruga Verde fields) Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058863 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205047 EFTA01367331