EFTA Document EFTA01367369

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils U.S. Gulf of Mexico Near-term production in the GoM is expected to be supported by the ramp of YE 14 start-ups (Tubular Bells, Jack/St Malo) and the 2015/2016 (6 and 4 projects respectively) start-up of several key deepwater projects. While the projects are expected to add an incremental 350 mbpd of crude (2016 vs. 2014), the longer-term outlook (2018+) has less visibility beyond the contribution from a few (Appomattox) deep-water projects anticipated to be sanctioned this year. Sanctioning activity, lease sales, rig rates and announcements of early rig terminations will be monitored moving forward to assess incremental shifts in industry appetite for deepwater investment. In the shelf, we assume a 5% annual decline in the central gulf through 2020 with declines likely to accelerate toward the latter part of the forecast period resulting from decreased demand for acreage. Since 2006, average acreage value has declined from $300/acre to -$100/acre and declining further to $50/acre in the most recent bidding in March. Figure 92: GoM Production Outlook. 2014-2020e (Mbfd) 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ■ Base Sew Data In aseciaaalenar. • Growth Bbls 2020 1 I Figure 94: Crude volume growth outlook by project status (Mb/d) 1400 , 1400 1200 1000 S00 600 400 200 0 0 0 0 0 5 14 mom &GM IP OMNI% *suds Prthetet D•do>ros — eu• - Dewkign401 - DIllosso Cow 14 Figure 93: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs. deepwater (Mb/d) 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2014 2015 2016 ■Onshore (Cony) eDeepwater (Com) Awn* Deem art. 154540A4acionr* 164 2017 2018 2019 2020 ■ Shallow water (Cony) sultra-deepwater (Com) 'Figure 95: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of -120 Mid 1500 1400 12C0 1200 1100 E 1000 100 400 700 4100 ew I 46mbrio shit in gro•th vests • l't,a4 r.cks.lre A•ncw Daaa Bat Mad factinall. Sane Onsa So* Mod IArIMs.164 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 51 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058902 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205086 EFTA01367369