EFTA Document EFTA01385914

Deutsche Bank Markets Research United States Economics Rates Credit US Fixed Income Weekly • There are plenty of minefields out there but none are likely to dominate what we still think for now is a powerful rational that warrants the current term structure. Long rates are well defined by low to negative term premium and a low terminal Funds rate. While we still see plenty of reasons why the Fed struggles to lift off making it as hard as it always has been to make money on shorting front rates to say a 3M forward horizon. • There are reasonable risk reward trades that we like including using bullish rate views to buy cheap risk on protection e.g. on SPX. We also for choice rather receive the market than pay it based on term premium staying very negative (Europe) but also the risk of some softer US data. This would favor curve caps and some relief steepening. Volatility should be higher in the front end relative to the back end. • The round out for 2014 GDP data was fascinating because like Rip Van Winkle after 5 years of would be accelerating recovery, we realize that there has been no acceleration - for five years! A rock solid dullness of sub 4 percent nominal growth. And everyone is so afraid of inflation! More importantly it clearly justifies the low terminal funds rate that the market is pricing as it leaves as many questions unanswered in terms of productivity and profits especially. • We look at the potential for Japanese financial sector demand for overseas securities to pick up in 2015 and conclude there is up to S200 billion to come based on dollar yen moving to 130 and recent sensitivities of asset allocation decisions as well as pre-announced pension asset reallocations. [Actual, fhted, and projected wage acceleration Is ID. PP —Actual Na aCcefieretadn —fitted AHE aCCekneber PfeeKted ME aCtelerateo. no uneincioreent deur* - - Projected ME accelerate°, mold unemployment decline, CIO 11.41RU Prelected ME accelerate°. rapid unernaterwerrt decline, FOMC NAM UM Mt) 1011 111111 1910 MI 1011 1014 196 IVO Ina 1.101 DMZ 2101 S0 .10:0 DOI MN /011 21:113 )314 /011 01 01 01 01 01 01 Cl 01 Cl CI CI 01 Cl 01 01 01 Cl 01 Cl Cl Cl CI Swot- AroWla tend Dana* gent Date 27 March 2015 Dnroinie kon‘tdro Research Analyst Al4 oe Research Analyst J.:cr;•h iirj'x0"a Chief US Economist .4ft: Research Analyst Research Anil 1111111111 Sitvor, irro. Research Analyst Table of Content US Overview Treasuries Derivatives Agencies US Credit Strategy Mortgages Bond Market Strategy Economics Chart Peck Page 06 Page 16 Page 22 Page 26 Page 28 Page 32 Page 41 Page 44 Page 48 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 148/04/2014. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0087382 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00233566 EFTA01385914