EFTA Document EFTA01385926

27 March 2015 US Fixed Income Weekly A note on the cash curve and inflation Last autumn we noted historical evidence that 10s30s is forward looking with respect to inflation, and developed a simple indicator which illustrated that consistent bullish flattening (10s and 30s fall, 10s30s flattens) tends to presage a higher probability of declining inflation. The indicator is simple enough, we look at a rolling 20 trading day period and calculate the frequency of bullish flattening as a per