EFTA Document EFTA01387019

softer prices for package holidays (Figure 4). This suggests that the recent increase in services inflation is broad, durable and driven by strong domestic growth. Importantly, a day after I ngves' comment, the services PMI for September came in exceptionally strong at 63.8. We thus expect strong details in this week's inflation print for September to justify a re-assessment of services inflation as being persistently stronger than previously forecast. To sum up, we remain long SEK against EUR and CHF in anticipation of a hawkish Riksbank turn by year-end. While hardly contrarian, our impression from recent client marketing is that SEK longs are far less extended than in the summer. FX daily by Robin Winkler : http ilpulldb•gmresearch contAxti-bin/pulVDocPull/1272-6DA817165272/08 FXDaiI 2017-10-10 21570105d-ec6:4- 43bc-agef-227c25d31:'463 604 Of Theme #4 in our FX Blueprint by Robin Winkler: http.//pull db-prnteseatch comktqi-baVpull/DotPuili13519- ptipt 2017-09-24 GDP81.1000CCG14565 pdf Figure 1 Sweden now has the most expensive property market Real ncese prices t 3>year average 150% 100% SO% fe d ine & if, (" ask 4.A 4, et ,p • jk rt eci,c7r tjetIe rt." , t y " t- +dr y Sodsve Llama" ant fl&s.neerp fres ft Figure 3: House price inflation has con nbuted to the deteriorating curreM account 26% Curve in CAfGOP 20% 15% IC% 5% 0% a% Sean • 'urd AV, ▪ ▪ •-•••• • halter nth • • • Crond I in realtoguse chats .10% °rge -60% 40% -20% 0% ;bow DailiGne Mel Ihnergraf, Ptt Figure 2 peaks 250% Heal house pea, r 30- vest moving average especially in comparison with pre-crisis —Sweden Norway Canada - Ausualia —UK 100% 2001 2003 2006 2007 2009 2011 2013 2.016 2017 Arnett (*slid* *setsv Amax LI 1 Figure 4: Strong services inflation ex-package holidays to drive hawkish Riksbank re-assessment 20062016 30% eraser 25% 20% 15% 10% tan • 6% 0% a •..aid. Swas•n -6% • now/ .10% 20% SO% •rin Jan. tO Packer baklava °hal —Svelte: Petal Good, (rho) Serra:es nflaucat Wages to k eep /II"; - w111100 package Nadal?: teke• bn ell0nth -1% Jan-I3 Jul.ta Jan-16 -St? &mean LAM. alert ligizabrog 'Mar U' CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0089028 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00235212 EFTA01387019