EFTA Document EFTA01449316

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax [Figure 5: Ex-Euro Area German exports have gained share 70,000 6014° 1 50.000 I 40,000 -I 20.000 —Euro-Area Non.EuroArea wpm German exports, -I —, Y mns. EUR Y Jan-93 Dec-95 Nov-98 Oct-01 Sep-04 Aug-07 Jul-10 SaMWDOOMftergatWOOKOrOV*LP 'Figure 6: Two ways of measuring the FTTs impact on German trade Fall in Maximum Estimated Impact* Basis Point Cost Direct tax on German exports, Direct tax on exports • German exports, EUR Hedge Rollover Trade Per Annum Hedging Ratio Intermediation Per Transaction EUR mns imports, EUR mns mns 80% High 6 1,325 2,416 3271 2 60% Moderate 5 414 755 1022 1 50% Low 4 138 252 341 Minimum Estimated Impact" Trade Basis Point Cost Intermediation Per Transaction High 6 Moderate 5 Low 4 Cost to German Corporates, EUR mns 952 794 635 •Estimates German merchandise trade exports and imports 2013 based on four quarter annualized growth rate. Basis point cost per transaction based on European Commission proposal. Hedging rollovers vary depending on exporter type and hedging policy. •• Data from BiS used to estimate annual German non-financlal turnover in EX forwards. This is a product of German share of work, trade and total non-financial FX forward turnover. Note. Calculation does not take account of corporate hedging strategies using options or swaps. Calculation is preliminary estimate only. Seine fleunct. $e•A 9%,, ,Crfw ...ox 31$ Tem...a F. e.yy Snee,Y., Page 12 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104668 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250852 EFTA01449316