EFTA Document EFTA01449319

30 July 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives: FX and the Financial Transaction Tax G10 FX Valuation Monitor Lines in the Sand" [Figure 1: The euro looks expensive and the dollar cheap 40 29.0 30 25.8 19S 20 15.0 12 10 0 -10 -20 .1 ° 10.5 7.0 -2.3 -8.5 -12.3 NZD AUD CHF CAD EUR NOK GBP SEK USD JPY Said DS PYR•rwal I FIgure 3: EUR/USD: The euro is expensive (I lough remains within the 20% threshold ... Figure 27 The dollar is 9% cheap to fair value 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 d'r Sam DS aRaikaarch 11:O11A1 73 78 78 82 86 88 91 94 97 00 03 08 09 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Fig We LISFYJPV7 The yen is very cheap to fair value 1.8 EUR/USD — — —• 20% Band r 1.6 350 PPP EuRAJSD 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 San. 08 IltReenn [Figure 5: USD/GBP: GBP is expensive ... 095 0 85 0 75 0 85 0 55 045 • 035 • 025 uSD/G8P PPP uSD/G8P 73 77 81 Sane DB FX Ratsten 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 095 0.85 0 75 085 0 55 045 0 35 0 25 300 250 200 150 0.8 100 50 350 • 300 250 • 200 150 100 • 50 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 Sara' Le ',X Iteneich 'Figure 6: USD/CHF: as well as CHF 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13 San*. DO +X Roserch 'Our measure of relative PPP is calculated using long-term averages from Jan-80 to Dec-04 and deflating by monthly CPI differentials. We refer to current spot rates as 'cheap' or 'expensive' with explicit reference to this measure of fair valuation: these statements are not intended in any way to be 'buy' or 'ser recommendations. Page 18 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 104674 SDNY_GM_00250858 EFTA01449319