EFTA Document EFTA01449371

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank CI Euro area (EUR Figure 1: The basic balance has turned positive... 200 103 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 .500 Feb.01 Bmle B moue 12-inaren -y USCVEUR Feb03 Feb06 Feb07 Feb09 Feb.11 Feb.13 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 Q0 0.7 Figure 3: EUR/USD strongly correlated (0.88) with bilateral basic balance with the US 100 110 60 10 -40 USD — Eti lateral Be sic Bs lance, legged (6m) EURUSD(th s) -93 .140 Correlation= 0 ES -190 -240 Jun-99 Jun01 Ji.n03 JunCS Ji4.07 Juiu:9 Jun41 Jun13 kw. CO fl Ry.yay. 4.1CVOS. 0.80 1.06 1 30 1.55 Figure 5: The bilateral basic balance with the US has moved in favor of the US recently... ISO 100 SO 0 -93 -100 493 -200 .250 Dec-90 Dec-01 Sow* OP Fr A•Ndith MP Anita --13inonal Baia BOanco •••••—. Net Non Toomey Ftw• Natal T o Balance Doc-04 Dec-07 Dec-10 160 100 SO 0 100 450 .200 .250 Doc-13 Figure 2: ...as current account surplus outweigh the net FDI outflows 150 100 - 50 - 0 .60 -100 -150 .200 -260 -300 J en-01 —C lot to t 12 moth Met F01 12 month Jan43 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jar.09 Jan-11 E.M.. C.8 FA ,r. Ary 100 60 -so -100 -150 -203 -250 -300 Jan-13 Figure 4: Bilateral basic balance explains 84% of EUR/USD movements since inception of the euro D3 I BO 1.90 40 120 1.00 FORUM:00.0 0326•90tva1 94nc esurcot. .1 129 Semple I119N16-20079A4 Ob senentton 17 vv I Mal LARtA13 200 I90 190 40 IA 1.00 090 Dee inta Jan-01 .1.M:3 ltn05 hnO7 lt"09 hail hal ?rut* C€ PA Pc-Awci+ E.rog.v Figure 6: ...as US purchases of euro area bonds have continued to be replaced by sales 100 20 .20 -11:0 Dez-77 Dec43 Dec-03 Dec-96 Da-01 Dec-07 Dec-13 Sane Deutsche foor 4, 4 VS rrcovin — Not A.;ency IIM Not Compote. —1011 rot IA one 12/A eel Ibett nodes • tit 12m MM Pomp. eorott,i 1 11 20 -20 400 Pago 24 Deutsche Bank AG/Lonclon CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0 104755 SDNY_GM_00250939 EFTA01449371