EFTA Document EFTA01449382

28 February 2013 Exchange Rate Perspectives Deutsche Bank El Figure 13: In EM, the main driver of reserve growth has been intervention (in USD bn) 2700 2300 1900 1500 11% 700 303 Total rum., m Ebt ra wr,ut lows, '9'15 Toni quinsy Omni. —Total roduabn dims* 2703 3300 1900 1500 1100 700 300 ico -100 1999 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2010 2011 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 02 04 $o.o CO A Reisoch Figure 15: First active diversification, then leaning against the wind 15 10 DliOnsill Oben Camp%a EIJINSO is in tel Leaning against the ne -10 BEM sea a ma paha*, - EUR shaatfri to; 01np 210)122 MOO 243301 20)404 HO 02 1taras now Swam CO RR IMF. Ce FX •225 -175 -125 -75 -25 25 75 125 Figure 14: In EM, the dollar share fell steadily during 2002-04 then stabilized to 70 so 50 90 20 10 0 1 — US Sian Enos — Yen — goring — 9nba Frio< --- Otto, Coo news 99 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2011 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 03 01 Son CO, EN ‘vs Era ry 70 60 60 40 30 20 10 0 2012 03 Figure 16: China has steadily diversified away from USD since 2004 (our estimates) 90 us: en 70 so 40 30 10 10 • •Slmts elV50 mOmarXClosevet Fleiervesm USD br. 000 700 1000 Iwo F 1000 IF 900 0 t0 lut.40 Ott-99 .111.01 Dtt-02 .1urPOd 000.05 Jun-09 Ott-09 .un-10 Dtt-11 Jun.10 US IV Sta 09 tx Roseith Deutsche Bank AG/London Page 43 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0104774 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00250958 EFTA01449382