EFTA Document EFTA01458540

2 October 2015 US Equity Insights [Figure 8: Oil and USD since 2012 2012 e.g 1013 an 2014 an 1014 •YCI 2014 avg 3314 an 4014 an 1015 avo ibcrloY ap vh %c1, 2 9215 on 13 eh° %OKI WTI Oil IMPS 943 979 93 70 965 1031 982 7488 489 -5C04% 57.4 -44 4% 47J -5t8% -1T4% Brent Oil 1118 1096 9963 1084 109 4 1025 7814 537 -505% 61.2 .440% 506 -506% -IT 3% Natural Get 2.74 372 433 498 493 395 379 189 -409% 175 -401% 274 4X16% .0'% Tradoommhted broad «Mx 11/97 100) 99 85 10102 10407 102.88 102.40 10312 10787 114 20 11.0% 11485 127% 118 74 162% 34% Tnede-micaned (3/73.1001 7350 7595 78 34 7699 76.38 766 8344 89.12 159% 9003 178% 9167 140% 18% mes4 currency EUMUSO I.28 1.33 1.33 1,37 1.31 1.33 1.26 1.13 -17.4% 1.11 -194% 111 -163% 0e% G8FIVAD 1.59 1.56 165 1.65 1.88 167 1.59 1.52 43% 1.53 -91% 156 14% USIMPY 79 79 9750 106 71 102.87 102.13 1D3 77 11409 119.18 159% 121.33 198% 112.31 17.8% 08% Trode-weghted W911/97.1001 11831 117.77 131.51 13073 14331 130.19 1347 140.47 7.5% 140.,42 81% 147.25 110% 46% Same CA NU NM Orm em Figure 9: DB Profit Indicator dropped sharply in 3Q to 46.7, back to Feb/March levels; it has exceeded 50 since Feb '14 DU Profit Indicator (COY avg 2015 52.5 1015 4/.9 Jul 4014 51.1 Jun Tactical Negative DB Profit Indicator (monthly) 48.2 53.3 Current Prior Prior 3mo Prior Brno Currant Month Month Chg. avg. avg. Signal Mfg. ISM Aug-I5 51.1 52.7 -1.6 53.0 52.5 Negative ISM New Orders Index Aug-15 51.7 56.5 -4.8 56.1 54.4 ISM Production Index Aug.15 53.6 56.0 -2.4 54.8 54.7 !Staudt Production lea" 3n10 %oho. tr.) Aug-15 0.5% -1.1% 1.6% -2.1% -1.1% Neutral Capacity Utilization I%) Aug-15 77.6 78.0 -0.4 77.6 77.9 EXIMMIll (94q.11mo % chg. ii.r.) Aug-I5 -4.6% 1.1% -6.7% -1.2% -11.2% Negative Capital Goods exports (seq. 3mo% c.hg. a.r.) Aug-15 -7.1% -3.9% -3.1% 0.2% -6.0% Mfg ISM Export Orders Index- 3mo avg. Aug-IS 480 49.2 -1.2 49.7 49.5 Initial CiliMe (month avg.. 0001) Aug-15 274 275 274 283 Positive Unemployment Rate I%) Aug-15 5.1 5.3 -0.2 5.4 5.4 Change in non-farm payroll (000's) Aug-15 173 245 -72 250 220 Loon growth (aim. 3mo % ohg, as.)" Aug-15 6.6% 6.8% -0.1% 7.3% 7.7% Neutral Call loan growth Isect 3mo %chg. a.r.) Aug-15 9.3% 10.2% -0.9% 10.9% 11.6% CRE loan growth lseq. 3mo% chg. a.r.) Aug-15 8.8% 8.2% 0.6% 8.1% 7.9% Homo Equity & Other Residential loan growth (seq. 3n. Aug-15 1.0% 1.2% -0.2% 1.5% 1.3% Consumer loan growth (seq. 3rno% chg, a.r.) Aug. 15 5.5% 5.1% 0.4% 4.5% 3.7% Other loan growth Isen. 3mo% chg. a,.) Aug-15 9.7% 10.2% -0.5% 12.7% 16.1% On price (% alteg from prior quarter avg. prke) Aug- 15 -22.6% -19.5% NOMitiVO WTI spot month and. Sibbl Aug- I5 45.29 47.11 -1.82 55.59 53.57 Brent spot month end. UM Aug-1 b 41.86 54.30 -12.44 58.76 58.82 Same Onorm 1$144 &Pre Ming Cana 004 &a OK Nye ONE [Figure 10: Federal Reserve Surveys still read negatively, but capex outlook has somewhat improved Federal Raisin Manufacturing Surveys IFigute 1 I: Global Mfg PMI (Red = <50 and 'owes than !last month and prior 3 months) Global Manufacturing PMI Prior man Prior Sep-15 C 3mo av. Ch. Currant Outlook Index Sop-16 3mo avg Empire State Mfg Survey (NY) -14./ -4.3 Euro Area 521 -0 3 524 -0 4 Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey -6.0 9.7 Germany 523 -10 523 00 Texas Mfg Outlook Survey (Dallas) -9.5 -9.1 France 50.6 2.3 49.5 11 Richmond Mfg Survey -5.0 6.7 Italy 527 -I 1 644 -1.7 Spain 51 7 -1 6 53 9 -2 1 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey -8.0 -8.3 UK 515 -0 1 517 -0 2 Aurralaa 521 04 497 34 Future Brno Capital Evens:Mures Index Canada 400 -0 8 505 -19 Empire State Mfg Survey (NYI 11.3 16.7 Japan 510 -0 7 51.0 00 Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey 27.2 11.4 China India 49.8 512 0.1 -1 1 50.0 521 -0.2 -0 9 Richmond Mfg Survey 33.0 28.7 Braze 470 12 485 05 Kansas City Fed Mfg Survey -1.0 4.0 Russia 49 1 1 2 48 3 078 US 60.2 -0.9 62.4 -2.2 Level: % of firms reporting increase less % of firm reporting decrease ism Chicago 48 7 -5 7 50 1 -1 4 ISM Molwaukee 394 -82 47.1 -77 Smet. Kerm0 Mime Daarchr Sane Mebt JIMerpert Camp041~ of A:~ Pram A44x4 iäre RR 'Awes • 1444* Art 0/164~41camyckemanameerao3~4 amdarnt «0~ to: Otine Arawern of~ a a^arl%Morf.lW. ~chi afen€ Minya Unit Ceder Icy app5 ash Mya Croptron ~wet* <Sip fl are& Onvet• Sera Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 5 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0118500 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00264684 EFTA01458540