EFTA Document EFTA01459065

20 November 2015 US Equity Insights 2015 did not have healthy underlying broad based revenue or EPS growth ex oil and dollar S&P sales and operating EPS growth was broadly weak in 2015. Weakness extended beyond commodity producers and FX drags at multinationals. A surge in airline profits masked a significant decline in profits at Industrial Capital Goods. Revenue was flat at Financials with EPS growth from less litigation than 2014. No growth at Consumer Staples despite lower input costs. Good growth at Retailers, but disappointing given the macro tailwinds owing to fierce price competition. Strong at auto, but home builders disappointed. The strongest growth was at Health Care and consumer oriented Tech firms. Corporate ech spending on equip. and software remains very sluggish and chip makers were flattish on earnings given slow PC, handset and weak industrial end markets. Ex. Energy, Financials, HC and AAPL, AMZN & GOOG 2015 S&P EPS growth is -2.5%; this is the underlying trend with -4% FX drag that should fall to -1.5%. Figure 14: S&P Industrials ex. Defense sales growth vs. Core capital goods shipments & Mfg ISM Is% t00 04 sera.* toilet/ad. LIJ Hr cat rs•Venaaibitair nem 120 to ruo ...MS. Mule plat weave,' cept-reesu . MO MO a0 a0 • 340 I B R E R - 113.si-48 a De a goon ot, Ml Cot Como 0coa M4aei 13a as Wt — mt21.514 On as An: SW Oat a a Cara a Figure 35: Core non-defense capital goods new orders & shipments W4 7C% teRte Cita! Gaa a mar +Coo 3ne assos .3% -Na otos Seine en Ofteas ant ae 02% I aven 4r4c44.4. 40% %%Oat ra wasenden L in Mowry ilia tsiesai =CIS [Figure 16: Industrials ex. Airlines Defense sales growth (Figure 17: Tech ex. AAPL & GOOG sales growth UMW Ca eV • • 24% 20% le% 12% 8% • 4% r 0% .4% .4% • 16% 0 0 999. 539 R 9 R 999 R ® trdals 1110.601113 Del I OuSTIOStx Mints Sown 18”. Danr-h• itant Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. nat. rectm01M T4010(4058 Soya WS OnorM• Sent 24% 20% 16% 12% 5% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% Fe el • 0 0 R9R3R2R9R Twin PAR 6 0000 Page 9 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0119278 SDNY_GM_00265462 EFTA01459065